GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – AUSTRALIA

Kim’s bomb the bleak balance for the upbeat

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Sep-17

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says there is potential for equity markets to experience a correction, although this could depend on the response to North Korea’s test of a hydrogen bomb. Meanwhile, Oliver says profit growth in Australia remains significantly lower than in the US, Europe and Japan. He anticipates GDP growth of 0.5 per cent for the quarter and 1.5 per cent growth year-on-year. A survey by Bloomberg shows that the general consensus is for GDP growth of 0.7 per cent for the quarter and 1.8 per cent for the year to June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Economy at slowest pace since GFC

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Jun-17

The latest national accounts data shows that the Australian economy expanded by just 1.7 per cent in the year to March 2017, which is the lowest annual growth rate for eight years. GDP growth was 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, compared with 1.1 per cent in the December 2016 quarter. Treasurer Scott Morrison has downplayed concerns about the outlook for the economy and the implications for May 2017 Budget forecasts. He notes that 17 out of 20 industry sectors recorded growth during the March quarter, while business investment has risen for two consecutive quarters.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Outlook ‘tough’ as economy slows

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Jun-17

Data from Credit Suisse shows that financial markets expect the cash rate to remain on hold in the next 12 months, following the release of the latest GDP data. The economy expanded by just 0.3 per cent in the March 2017 quarter, and year-on-year growth fell to an eight-year low of 1.7 per cent. The data will cast doubt on the Reserve Bank’s forecast of calendar year economic growth of 2.5-3.5 per cent. The Commonwealth Bank notes that the central bank will be adverse to easing the cash rate, as doing so could further inflate house prices.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG

Reserve takes hands off the growth lever

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 7-Jun-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement for June 2017 notes that GDP growth is likely to have slowed in the March 2017 quarter. Paul Dales of Capital Economics says that while the central bank may be willing to overlook a temporary fall in GDP, a second successive quarter of weak GDP growth in June would be a concern for it. Dales expects the RBA to leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the rest of 2017, after doing so in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

AAA could go at any time

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 15-Dec-16

Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings have signalled that Australia’s triple-A credit rating could potentially be downgraded on 19 December 2016, following the release of the mid-year budget update. Both credit rating agencies have previously warned that the triple-A rating could be at risk if the Government fails to meet its target of 2020-21 for returning the Budget to surplus. Meanwhile, Adam Boynton of Deutsche Bank has forecast that nominal GDP growth will be 3.25 per cent in 2017-18, compared with the May Budget forecast of five per cent.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Budget turmoil as GDP slumps

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-Dec-16

Treasurer Scott Morrison has attributed the larger-than-forecast downturn in GDP growth in the September 2016 quarter to a sustained decline in business investment over the last three years. The national accounts data shows that GDP growth contracted by 0.5 per cent during the period, while annual growth fell from 3.1 per cent in the June quarter to just 1.8 per cent. Morrison has downplayed the potential for a recession, while Westpac’s Bill Evans argues that a number of one-off factors contributed to the poor economic performance, including the federal election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Alarm as economic growth stalls

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 32 : 8-Dec-16

The Australian economy expanded by just 1.8 per cent in the year to September 2016. The Federal Government’s upcoming mid-year Budget update is likely to include a downgraded 2016 economic growth forecast, which was tipped to be 3.25 per cent in the Budget in May. However, Paul Bloxham of HSBC notes that GDP has not fallen for two consecutive quarters since 1991. Nevertheless, the national accounts for the September quarter may strengthen the case for further official interest rate cuts.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, LEHMAN BROTHERS INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Party’s over as economy turns mediocre

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 7-Dec-16

Australia’s real GDP growth is expected to have fallen by 0.2 per cent in the September 2016 quarter, with year-on-year growth likely to have slowed to about two per cent. This compares with annual GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in the year to June. Despite the relative strength of the economy and a fall in the jobless rate, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has conceded that growth in employment has slowed and underemployment has risen to a record high, at 9.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

ASX to hit 6000 in ’17, says Credit Suisse

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 18-Oct-16

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse believes that the Australian sharemarket’s "profits recession" of the last several years has ended, which will be reflected in the market’s outlook. Credit Suisse expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to reach the 6,000-point level by the end of 2017, buoyed by single-digit growth in earnings per share over the next year. Meanwhile, Matthew Sherwood of Perpetual is upbeat about the outlook for the economy, forecasting a rise in GDP growth over the next 12 months.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, ANSELL LIMITED – ASX ANN, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, MAQUILADORA PARTNERSHIP, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR

Taxpayer funds hold up economy, families ease back

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Sep-16

The latest national accounts data shows that the Australian economic expanded by 3.3 per cent in the year to June 2016. It is now 25 years since the last recession in Australia, and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has attributed the almost unprecedented period of economic growth to factors such as the nation’s commitment to free trade and economic reform. However, growth in household spending slowed to just 0.4 per cent in the June quarter, while growth in household incomes is also subdued. A sharp rise in government spending contributed to GDP growth in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, EAST ASIA SUMMIT