INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations lowest in over two years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Mar-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for February 2019. This is down 0.2% on January, and down 0.4% on February 2018. Inflation Expectations have now broken below the range they have tracked in for over two years and are now at their lowest since November 2016. Inflation Expectations have now dropped significantly below the nine-year average of 4.9%. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for supporters of the major parties were unchanged in February, with L-NP supporters having Inflation Expectations of only 3.6% and Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters of 3.9%. February Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,234 Australians aged 14+ face-to-face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.2% in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2019. This is unchanged on December and down 0.3% on January 2018. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range of between 4.2-4.5% since November 2016. Inflation Expectations remain significantly below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis of Inflation Expectations by voting intentions shows that L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party in January, unchanged at only 3.6%. L-NP supporters have had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters fell 0.1% to a record low of 3.9%. January Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,111 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Next rates move still up, RBA insists

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Original article by David Rogers, James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 6-Feb-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2019 from 3.25 per cent to around three per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent. The central bank has also advised that it now expects the unemployment rate to fall to around 4.75 per cent over the next several years, while it forecasts an underlying inflation rate of two per cent in 2019. Analysts expect official interest rates to remain on hold for some time.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation Expectations down 0.1% to 4.2% in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for December 2018. This is down 0.1% on a month ago and down 0.3% on December 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.2-4.5% for over two years. Inflation Expectations have dropped further below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations fell in December for supporters of all political parties. L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party, now at only 3.6%, down 0.1% in December. L-NP supporters have now had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters were down 0.2% to 4.0% in December and are now at their lowest since November 2016. December Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,104 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Inflation Expectations down 0.2% to 4.3% in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Dec-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for November 2018. This is down 0.2% on a month ago, and down 0.2% from November 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for nearly 18 straight months, since mid-2017. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations for Liberal-National Party supporters were unchanged at 3.7% in November and remain clearly lower than for supporters of all other parties. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters were unchanged at 4.2% in November and remain at their lowest since mid-2017. November Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,408 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Challenge emerges to inflation target regime

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 22-Nov-18

The Bank of Canada has signalled that it will undertake a review of alternatives to its inflation target of two per cent. Options that the central bank will consider include increasing the inflation target, targeting aggregate prices or nominal income, and adding a full employment objective. The move may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to reappraise its own inflation target of 2-3 per cent. Some economists have argued that the RBA’s inflation target is too high, although many advocate the status quo.

CORPORATES
BANK OF CANADA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% to 4.5% in October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Nov-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for October 2018. This is up 0.2% on a month ago, but unchanged from October 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for 16 straight months, since July 2017. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis shows that Inflation Expectations for supporters of the two major political parties are down compared to a year ago, while Inflation Expectations for Greens supporters are unchanged. However, Inflation Expectations for supporters of Independents and Others have increased substantially over the last year. October Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,156 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA says it’s all systems go for booming economy

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 7-Nov-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia is upbeat about the outlook for the domestic economy, forecasting growth of 3.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019. The central bank also expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.75 per cent over the next two years, while inflation is forecast to rise above its target range in 2019 to an average of 2.25 per cent. Meanwhile, RBA governor Philip Lowe says growth in wages will be gradual. The RBA has again left interest rates on hold, and financial markets do not anticipate any change in monetary policy until 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Hope mounts for improvement in real wages index

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 2-Nov-18

Australia’s wage price index recorded growth of 2.1 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter. The latest wage price index data, to be released on 14 November, will attract close scrutiny after inflation rose by 0.4 per cent in the September quarter and 1.9 per in the year to September. David Bassanese of Betashares notes that the wage price index data for the September quarter will be affected by the 3.5 per cent increase in the minimum wage that took effect at the start of July.

CORPORATES
BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Stubbornly low inflation confounds RBA

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 1-Nov-18

Official data shows that Australia’s headline inflation rate fell to 1.9 per cent in the year to September, compared with 2.1 per cent in the year to June. The underlying inflation rate has fallen to 1.7 per cent. The CPI figures show that an increase in the cost of utilities, tobacco and petrol in the September quarter was offset by a 12 per cent decline in childcare costs following changes to federal subsidies. Despite the fact that inflation is now below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent, most economists do not expect an increase in official interest rates until at least the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD