INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Australian Inflation Expectations up to 4.3% in July

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for July 2017. This is up 0.1% in a month, and inflation expectations are up 0.2% from a year ago in July 2016. However, despite the recent uptick, Australian inflation expectations remain well below average inflation expectations over the last seven years of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that inflation expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.6%, closely followed by New South Wales and Victoria, both at 4.5%. Inflation expectations in Australia’s other States were below the national average: Queensland and Tasmania both at 4.1% and Western Australia at 3.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

RBA dampens rate cut hopes

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 27-Jul-17

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that the central bank will maintain its inflation target of 2-3 per cent. Meanwhile, new data shows that CPI growth in the June quarter was below expectations at 1.9 per cent, although growth in core inflation was in line with forecasts at 1.8 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the RBA to leave the cash rate at 1.5 per cent until at least the end of 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, THE ANIKA FOUNDATION

Australian Inflation Expectations at 4.2% in June

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-17

A Roy Morgan Single Source survey has found that Australians’ inflation expectations over the next two years fell by 0.1 per cent month-on-month in June 2017, to 4.2% per year. However, inflation expectations are up 0.2% compared with June 2016. Australian inflation expectations remain well below average inflation expectations over the last seven years of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that inflation expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.4%, closely followed by New South Wales and Victoria (4.3%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Rate hikes deferred by slow US growth

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Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 1-May-17

The Federal Reserve is tipped to leave interest rates on hold in May 2017, in the wake of GDP data showing that US economic growth slowed to a three-year low of 0.7 per cent in the March quarter. Some 70 per cent of futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in June. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to leave rates on hold in May, and Paul Brennan of Citigroup says the central bank’s revised quarterly forecasts are unlikely to be unduly affected by data showing that inflation is within its target range.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, THINKMARKETS, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC, SOCIETE GENERALE SA

Rise in inflation puts squeeze on households

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 27-Apr-17

Financial markets believe there is little chance of an official interest rate cut in May 2017, following the release of CPI data for the March quarter. The headline inflation rate was 2.1 per cent year-on-year during the quarter, compared with 1.5 per cent previously. The inflation rate is now within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent for the first time since late 2014. An increase in gas prices contributed to the rise in the inflation rate, which is now outpacing wages growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Inflation will decide the rate debate

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 26-Apr-17

Investors will be awaiting the release of Australia’s CPI data for the March 2017 quarter, which may influence the timing of any change to monetary policy. The headline inflation rate is widely tipped to have risen by 2.2 per cent year-on-year, which would be the first time that inflation has been within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent since the September 2014 quarter. However, the underlying inflation rate for the year to March is expected to be around 1.8 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW

Rates low enough to spur growth: RBA

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 5-Oct-16

Financial markets have priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in November 2016. The central bank left official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent on 4 October, and governor Philip Lowe said the board decided that the cash rate is at an appropriate level to deliver sustainable economic growth and meet the bank’s inflation target over the long-term. Lowe’s statement notably made no reference to the upcoming release of inflation data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Lowe: RBA can only do so much

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 23-Sep-16

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe sees the role of the central bank as primarily dealing with inflation. He told members of the House of Representatives economics committee in Sydney on 22 September 2016 that interest rate cuts can only have a limited impact on the property market. Lowe said house prices are high because of inadequate supply and easy access to credit.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA cuts, dismissing property bubble risk

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 3-Aug-16

Financial markets believe there is a 52 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce official interest rates to 1.25 per cent by November 2016, after the cash rate was cut by 25 basis points to 1.5 per cent on 2 August. The central bank has now reduced the cash rate by 3.25 per cent during the current monetary policy easing cycle, which began in late 2011. The RBA has warned that inflation is likely to remain low for some time, and noted that a housing price bubble now appears to be unlikely.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rates cut on cards as economy loses gloss

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 2-Aug-16

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce official interest rates to a new low of 1.5 per cent on 2 August 2016. The central bank’s monetary policy easing cycle began in November 2011, and it has since reduced the cash rate 11 times. Factors such as Australia’s low inflation rate and the uncertain outlook for the US and Chinese economies may prompt another cut. However, Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the RBA will be mindful that a rate cut could put more upward pressure on house prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC