Young Women have Australia’s highest Inflation Expectations

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for May 2018. This is down 0.2% from a month ago, but unchanged on May 2017. Following this month’s fall Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by gender and age shows that women have higher Inflation Expectations than similarly aged men. Women aged 14-34 continue to have Australia’s highest Inflation Expectations, while middle-aged men aged 50-64 have the lowest Inflation Expectations of any gender and age. May Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,112 Australians.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations up in April led by Melbourne, Adelaide & Perth

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-May-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for April 2018. This is up 0.2% from a month ago, and up 0.1% on April 2017. Despite the increase in April, Inflation Expectations are still well below the eight-year average of 5.0% Analysis of Inflation Expectations by political affiliation shows that supporters of both major parties drove the index higher in April. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters increased 0.3% to 4.5% and are now in line with the national average, while Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters increased 0.4% to 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Inflation Expectations down again in March before Federal Budget in early May

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for March 2018. This is down 0.1% from a month ago, the second straight monthly fall, and also down 0.1% from March 2017. Inflation Expectations have now fallen for two consecutive months for the first time since June 2017 and are lower year over year for the first time since December 2016. Following these consecutive decreases Inflation Expectations are now well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by political affiliation shows that ALP supporters are driving the fall, with the Inflation Expectations of L-NP supporters unchanged on a year ago and Greens supporters now with slightly higher Inflation Expectations.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Fuel and education could flatter CPI result

Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 24-Apr-18

Analysts are expecting Australia’s consumer price index for the March quarter to be up 0.5 per cent when official figures are released on 1 May. This figure would mean an annual CPI increase of 1.9 per cent. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura, who has proven to be the most accurate forecaster taking part in Bloomberg’s survey, is tipping a headline figure of 0.6 per cent. Ticehurst thinks increases in education, fuel, electricity and tobacco costs will have the most impact on the CPI result.

CORPORATES
NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australian Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.5% to start 2018

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Mar-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2018. This is unchanged for a third straight month and also unchanged from January 2017. Inflation Expectations have levelled off in recent months after rising throughout the last year; 2017 was the first year since the series began in 2010 that Inflation Expectations were higher year-over-year in every month. Despite the increases throughout 2017, Inflation Expectations remain well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations remain the highest in Queensland at 4.8%, with the southern States of Victoria and Tasmania both on 4.7%, and South Australia on 4.6% also above the national average. Analysis by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.5%) have Inflation Expectations equal to the national average, above those of L-NP supporters (4.1%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Low inflation, low unemployment, and Lowe restraint

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Feb-18

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has indicated that an interest rate rise is now more likely than a rate cut. However, he says the central bank is unlikely to tighten monetary policy until inflation rises around the mid-point of its target range of 2-3 per cent and there is a further reduction in the unemployment rate. He has stressed that the Reserve Bank does not need to adjust monetary policy in line with other central banks. Lowe also says the Reserve Bank does not expect its inflation forecasts to be unduly affected by the recent sharemarket volatility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.5%

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-18

Australians expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for December 2017. This is unchanged for a second straight month, although it is up 0.3% from December 2016. The increase in Inflation Expectations over the last year has been driven by significant increases in the two resource intensive states of Queensland and Western Australia as the mining industry has recovered strongly. However, Inflation Expectations remain well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analyses of Inflation expectations by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.6%) have inflation expectations just above the national average and clearly higher than L-NP supporters (4.0%) although both increased in December. In contrast, the Inflation Expectations of Greens supporters fell to 4.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Australian Inflation Expectations up in October led by renters

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Dec-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for October 2017. This is up 0.1% in a month, and up 0.4% from October 2016. However, it remains well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations among renters was 4.9% in October, compared with just 3.9% for home owners and 4.2% for mortgagors. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.9%, followed by Victoria and Queensland (4.6%). Analysing Inflation Expectations by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.6%) have the highest inflation expectations, ahead of L-NP supporters (4%) and Greens supporters (4.4%)

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA held up by flagging inflation

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 26-Oct-17

Official data shows that growth in Australia’s headline consumer prices was below expectations at just 0.6 per cent in the September quarter, for an annual inflation rate of 1.8 per cent. Growth in the core inflation rate slowed to 0.3-0.4 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in the June quarter. The data has dampened expectations that the Reserve Bank will increase the cash rate in the near-term, with financial markets now pricing in a 36 per cent chance of a rate rise by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Jobs market ‘a thing of beauty’ set to boost pay

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 23-Oct-17

More than 300,000 jobs have been created in Australia during the last year, but Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics forecasts that this will slow to less than 200,000 in the next 12 months. He also expects wages to begin increasing, while inflation will continue to rise at a slow pace over the next several years. Richardson adds that official interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, while a range of factors suggest that business investment will increase.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED