INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Jobs market ‘a thing of beauty’ set to boost pay

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 23-Oct-17

More than 300,000 jobs have been created in Australia during the last year, but Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics forecasts that this will slow to less than 200,000 in the next 12 months. He also expects wages to begin increasing, while inflation will continue to rise at a slow pace over the next several years. Richardson adds that official interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, while a range of factors suggest that business investment will increase.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Inflation Expectations fall to 4.4% in September

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Oct-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.4% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for September 2017. This is down 0.1% in a month, although it is up 0.3% from September 2016. However, it remains well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in Tasmania at 5.4%, followed by Victoria (4.7%) and New South Wales and Queensland (4.3%). Analysing Inflation Expectations by Federal voting intention shows that L-NP supporters (3.9%) and Greens supporters (4.1%) have the lowest Inflation Expectations, while ALP supporters (4.4%) are in line with the national average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Reserve in no hurry to lift rates

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Oct-17

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for October suggest that the cash rate will remain at 1.5 per cent for some time. The central bank stresses that while the global trend toward monetary policy tightening is a "welcome development", it has no implications for Australian interest rates, which stayed much higher than in many nations in the wake of the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, the RBA anticipates that inflation will gradually move towards its target range.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF CANADA, BANK OF ENGLAND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

$9bn power hit for big firms

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Original article by Eli Greenblat, Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Sep-17

National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster has forecast that higher energy costs will add 0.6 per cent to the headline inflation rate for the September quarter. Companies that are major energy users estimate that their electricity and gas costs will rise by $A9bn, which in turn will affect profit margins, jobs and investment. Meanwhile, AGL Energy has advised that it has made no commitment to sell its Liddell power station or keep it operating beyond the planned closure date of 2022. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has claimed that AGL CEO Andy Vesey had indicated that the company would be open to selling the power station.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, DELTA ENERGY PTY LTD, GLENCORE PLC, AUSTRALIAN PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND EXPLORATION ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, TOMAGO ALUMINIUM COMPANY PTY LTD, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX PGH, COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX CGC, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL

Australian Inflation Expectations up to 4.5% in August. Generations Y & Z consistently have highest Inflation Expectations

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for August 2017. This is up 0.2% in a month and up 0.6% from August 2016. However, it is well below the seven-year average of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations are highest in Tasmania at 4.9%, closely followed by New South Wales (4.8%) and Queensland (4.6%). Inflation Expectations in Australia’s other States were below the national average. Analysing Inflation Expectations by generations reveals a clear split in how different generations view Inflation. The two youngest generations consistently have higher Inflation Expectations than older generations.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Australian Inflation Expectations up to 4.3% in July

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-17

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for July 2017. This is up 0.1% in a month, and inflation expectations are up 0.2% from a year ago in July 2016. However, despite the recent uptick, Australian inflation expectations remain well below average inflation expectations over the last seven years of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that inflation expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.6%, closely followed by New South Wales and Victoria, both at 4.5%. Inflation expectations in Australia’s other States were below the national average: Queensland and Tasmania both at 4.1% and Western Australia at 3.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

RBA dampens rate cut hopes

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 27-Jul-17

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that the central bank will maintain its inflation target of 2-3 per cent. Meanwhile, new data shows that CPI growth in the June quarter was below expectations at 1.9 per cent, although growth in core inflation was in line with forecasts at 1.8 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the RBA to leave the cash rate at 1.5 per cent until at least the end of 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, THE ANIKA FOUNDATION

Australian Inflation Expectations at 4.2% in June

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-17

A Roy Morgan Single Source survey has found that Australians’ inflation expectations over the next two years fell by 0.1 per cent month-on-month in June 2017, to 4.2% per year. However, inflation expectations are up 0.2% compared with June 2016. Australian inflation expectations remain well below average inflation expectations over the last seven years of 5.1%. Analysis by State shows that inflation expectations are highest in South Australia at 4.4%, closely followed by New South Wales and Victoria (4.3%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Rate hikes deferred by slow US growth

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Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 1-May-17

The Federal Reserve is tipped to leave interest rates on hold in May 2017, in the wake of GDP data showing that US economic growth slowed to a three-year low of 0.7 per cent in the March quarter. Some 70 per cent of futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in June. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to leave rates on hold in May, and Paul Brennan of Citigroup says the central bank’s revised quarterly forecasts are unlikely to be unduly affected by data showing that inflation is within its target range.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, THINKMARKETS, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC, SOCIETE GENERALE SA

Rise in inflation puts squeeze on households

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 27-Apr-17

Financial markets believe there is little chance of an official interest rate cut in May 2017, following the release of CPI data for the March quarter. The headline inflation rate was 2.1 per cent year-on-year during the quarter, compared with 1.5 per cent previously. The inflation rate is now within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent for the first time since late 2014. An increase in gas prices contributed to the rise in the inflation rate, which is now outpacing wages growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB