INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Traders kiss goodbye to Aussie’s high hopes

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 29-Apr-16

The Australian dollar has retreated from recent highs after the latest inflation data showed that the CPI fell by 0.2 per cent in the March 2016 quarter. Currency traders now do not expect the currency to test the $US0.80 level in the near-term, while the inflation data has also heightened expectations of further monetary policy easing. However, currency strategists are divided about the outlook for the dollar, with year-end forecasts ranging from $A0.70 to $A0.78.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, THINKFOREX

Deflation raises budget rate cut

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 28-Apr-16

The consumer price index fell by 0.2 per cent in the March 2016 quarter, with year-on-year growth of 1.3 per cent. The latest inflation data has raised the prospect that the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut official interest rates on 3 May, when the Federal Government will also deliver the 2016 Budget. National Australia Bank now expects the cash rate to be reduced in May, while financial markets now regard the chance of a rate rise to be 55 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Inflation uptick takes interest rate cut off the table

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 28-Jan-16

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that consumer inflation rose by a higher-than-expected 0.4 per cent in the December 2015 quarter. The annual inflation rate was also above expectations at 1.7 per cent. Financial markets have responded to the inflation data by downgrading the chances of a rise in the cash rate in February to just four per cent. Morgan Stanley’s Daniel Blake says a mid-year rate cut remains on the cards given the CPI data.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF JAPAN, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Dollar jumps as RBA wrong-foots punters with cash rate

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 4-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was fetching $US0.7199 late in trading on 3 November 2015. The currency reached an intra-day high of $US0.7209 after the Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold. Central bank governor Glenn Stevens indicated that there may be potential for further rate cuts given the low inflation rate. Felicity Emmett of the ANZ Bank expects the cash rate to be left on hold again in December before being reduced in February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JAMIESONCOOTEBONDS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Westpac’s Evans says no rate cut in sight

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 30-Oct-15

HSBC’s Paul Bloxham expects a reduction in Australia’s cash rate in either November or December 2015, in the wake of lower-than-expected inflation data in the September quarter. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans in turn still believes that the cash rate will remain unchanged in November, noting that the Reserve Bank has ignored one-off falls in the inflation rate in the past. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura expects the cash rate to remain on hold until February.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Aussie dives as third-quarter inflation figure surprises

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 29-Oct-15

The Australian dollar was buying $US0.7119 late in trading on 28 October 2015, after starting the session above $US0.72. The currency fell sharply in response to official data showing that the headline and core inflation rates were lower than forecast in the September quarter, which may strengthen the case for further monetary policy easing. Paul Dales of Capital Economics says an interest rate cut is possible in November.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Low inflation corners RBA

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 : 29-Jan-15

Australia’s underlying inflation rate increased by 0.7 per cent in the December 2014 quarter, which was higher than expected. There was an 0.2 per cent increase in the CPI during the quarter, and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. The benign inflation data may strengthen the case for a reduction in the cash rate when the Reserve Bank board meets on 3 February 2015. The central bank may also be swayed by recent monetary policy easing in other countries, which may prompt renewed support for the Australian dollar

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Inflation on track and RBA still likely to tighten with the Fed

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alan Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 23-Oct-14

Australia’s CPI data for the third quarter of 2014 suggests that inflation is likely to be at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range by the end of 2015. The central bank expects the underlying inflation rate to fall to about 2.25 per cent per annum in the December quarter. The Australian dollar is likely to continue to weaken against the US dollar if interest rates are raised in the US

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Australians’ Inflation Expectations fall to 5.0% (down 0.3%)

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 26-Aug-14

A face-to-face Morgan Poll has found that Australian inflation expectations over the next two years fell by 0.3 per cent to five per cent a year in July 2014. This is also 0.3 per cent lower than in June 2013. Analysis by federal voting intention shows that Coalition supporters have the lowest inflation expectations, at four per cent, compared with 5.2 per cent for Australian Labor Party supporters. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the most important policy priority for the Federal Government is to reduce Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment if it is to stand any chance of winning the 2016 election

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, PALMER UNITED PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Mortgage rates hit record lows

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jonathan Shapiro|Clancy Yeates|Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Jul-14

Three of Australia’s four major banks reduced their fixed mortgage interest rates on 23 July 2014, after the five-year swap rate fell to just 3.11 per cent in the previous week. The Commonwealth Bank’s five-year fixed rate has fallen to a record low of just 4.99 per cent, with Westpac and National Australia Bank reducing their rates for new customers to the same level. Meanwhile, market watchers expect the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate on hold after inflation rose to three per cent in the second quarter

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA|WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC|NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB|RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA|AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ|BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED|BELL FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX BFG|UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD|MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEMS|AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS|RATECITY PTY LTD|MOZO PTY LTD|MEMBERS EQUITY BANK PTY LTD|UBANK