INFLATION (FINANCE) – AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations in late April are at 5.0% – up slightly from the month of March (4.9%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.0% for the week of April 15-21. This figure is in line with the average over the last 12 weeks of surveying since late January – also of 5.0% – and up slightly from the month of March. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for March 2024 showed the measure at 4.9% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on February (5.0%). The figure of 4.9% for the month of March 2024 was the lowest monthly inflation figure since January 2022 (4.9%). Looking back over the last few months, since mid-December 2023, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%. After March ended, Inflation Expectations moved higher through the first few weeks of April and are now marginally higher in late April. A likely driver of the increases in Inflation Expectations during April is the recent strength in the retail price of petrol, which is now over $2 per litre. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,999 Australians aged 14+ in March 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

5pc minimum wage rise would keep rates high

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 27-Mar-24

The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry wants the Fair Work Commission to limit the annual minimum wage rise to no more than two per cent. The employers’ group contends that inflation is expected to fall to three per cent, productivity is declining and the FWC has overcompensated for inflation in previous minimum wage decisions. The ACTU in turn is seeking an above-inflation minimum wage increase of five per cent, which ACCI CEO Andrew McKellar says would ensure that interest rates remain high. He adds that wage costs are still a problem for small and medium enterprises, and a large increase in the minimum wage would have an impact on hiring decisions.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU

Inflation Expectations in late March are at 5.1% – up slightly from the month of February (5.0%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Mar-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of March 18-24. This figure is in line with the average over the last 15 weeks of surveying since early December – also of 5.1% – and up slightly from the month of February. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for February 2024 shows the measure at 5.0% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on January (5.1%). The figure of 5.0% for the month of February was the lowest monthly inflation figure since January 2022 (4.9%). Looking back over the last few months, since mid-December 2023 weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%. After February ended, Inflation Expectations dipped in early March, but have now recovered and have moved higher in late March. A likely driver of this week’s increase in Inflation Expectations is the recent strength in the retail price of petrol which is now over $2 per litre. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,998 Australians aged 14+ in February 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ACTU’s 5pc wage push sets up showdown

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 26-Mar-24

The ACTU will use its submission to the Fair Work Commission’s annual minimum wage review to call for an above-inflation increase of five per cent. This would increase the minimum wage to $24.39 an hour, or $48,200 a year. ACTU secretary Sally McManus contends that workers on the lowest pay are hardest hit by inflation, and they need a pay rise of five per cent to make up for the real wage losses over the last several years. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry will in turn push for the minimum wage to be increased by no more than two per cent, following a large rise in both the minimum wage and award wages in 2023.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

Inflation Expectations in late February are at 5.1% – unchanged from the month of January (5.1%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of February 19-25, which is in line with the average so far this year of 5.1% and unchanged from the month of January. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for January 2024 shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, a decrease of 0.2% points on December 2023 (5.3%). In the month of January 2024 Australians expected inflation of 5.1% annually over the next two years – the lowest monthly figure for Inflation Expectations s since February 2022. Since January ended, Inflation Expectations have stabilised within a narrow band over the last few weeks. Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official inflation measure. The latest ABS monthly CPI estimate for December 2023 of 3.4% is down 0.9% from November, and down 2.2% points since September (5.6%). The sharp drop in the official inflation readings has raised hopes the RBA will not undertake any further interest rate increases. The ABS will release the January monthly inflation readings later this week which will inform the RBA’s actions at its next meeting in mid-March. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,032 Australians aged 14+ in January 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Keep lid on the minimum wage, business urges

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 27-Feb-24

Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO Andrew McKellar says the inflation outlook means it is likely to seek a lower increase in the minimum than the 3.5 per cent rise that it advocated in 2023. The Fair Work Commission increased the minimum wage and award rates by 5.75 per cent in 2023, which was the largest increase in more than a decade. Jarden’s chief economist Carlos Cacho says the minimum wage ruling could be a key factor in the outlook for wages in 2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, JARDEN AND COMPANY

‘Job is not done’, says RBA boss

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Feb-24

Investors have priced in a 41 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by June, compared with 53 per cent before the central bank left rates on hold at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. RBA governor Michele Bullock says that while inflation fell to 4.1 per cent in the year to December, it remains too high for the central bank to begin easing monetary policy. She adds that the RBA will not begin doing so until it is confident inflation that will sustainably return to the target range of 2-3 per cent target; it does not expect this to happen until late 2025. Bullock also cautioned that further interest rate increases cannot be ruled out.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Don’t get your hopes up on rates cut: OECD

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Feb-24

The OECD has forecast that Australia’s inflation rate will fall to 3.5 per cent by mid-2024 and just 2.75 per cent by mid-2025. The Paris-based organisation is also upbeat about inflation globally, forecasting that inflation will be in line with central bank objectives in most Group of 20 countries by the end of 2025. However, the OECD has also cautioned central banks against easing monetary policy too quickly in response to the downturn in inflation. Meanwhile, Challenger Limited’s chief economist Jonathan Kearns has downplayed the prospects of multiple interest rate cuts in Australia during 2024; he says a single rate cut late in the year is most likely.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF

Insurance premiums rise faster than Australia’s inflation, spurred by frequent extreme weather

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Original article by Josh Nicholas, Jonathan Barrett
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 6-Feb-24

The latest inflation data shows that insurance premiums have risen by 16.2 per cent over the last year. In contrast, the annual inflation rate was just 4.1 per cent. An Insurance Council of Australia spokesperson says factors such as the rising cost of natural disasters are contributing to the spike in premiums. Reinsurers are also taking into account the impact of climate change when setting their prices, and any such increases are ultimately passed on insurance companies’ customers.

CORPORATES
INSURANCE COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Inflation Expectations in late January are at 5.1% – down by 0.2% points from the month of December (5.3%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of January 22-28, which is in line with the four-week average of 5.1% and 0.2% points lower than the month of December. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for December shows the measure at 5.3% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on November (5.4%). Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official ABS inflation measure. The lower-than-expected inflation reading for November has raised hopes that the RBA will not undertake any further interest rate increases. The ABS will release the December quarterly and monthly inflation readings later this week, which will inform the RBA’s actions at their first meeting of the year next week. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,028 Australians aged 14+ in December 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS