INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Interest rate increases set to hit mortgage holders in Victoria, Queensland, and Tasmania the hardest

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Feb-26

The most recent Roy Morgan data on mortgage stress shows that 24.5% of mortgage holders are now ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress. Last week’s interest rate rise is expected to increase this to 25.3%, and a 25 basis point interest rate rise in March to 4.1% would increase this to 27.2% (1,322,000 mortgage holders). A deep dive into Roy Morgan’s data on mortgage stress by State shows that the situation is worst in Tasmania; 29.8% of mortgage holders are classified as ‘At Risk’, and this will increase by 3.8% points to 32.6% if the Reserve Bank increases interest rates again in March. In clear second place is Victoria with 27.2% of mortgage holders classified as ‘At Risk’ and set to increase to 29.9% (up 2.7% points) following another RBA interest rate increase. However, a potential RBA interest rate increase will hit hardest in Queensland and would mean 26.8% of mortgage holders are ‘At Risk’ – an increase of 3.2% points. Overall, 17.1% of mortgage holders are ‘Extremely At Risk’, and this will increase by 2.4% points to 19.5% if the Reserve Bank increases interest rates in March (947,000 mortgage holders).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Treasurer under pressure to fix budget after RBA lifts rates for first time in two years

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Original article by Shane Wright, Millie Muroi
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 4-Feb-26

The Opposition contends that Treasurer Jim Chalmers must accept responsibility for yesterday’s increase in official interest rates to 3.85 per cent. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien said in parliament that the 25 basis point increase is a direct consequence of the govermment’s "addiction to spending", arguing that it has kept inflation higher for longer. Chalmers has rejected suggestions that government spending has contributed to a rising inflation rate, noting that the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement did not mention it. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has declined to commence on whether government spending is to blame for rising inflation, and noted that the central bank considers both private and public sector spending. The Reserve Bank now does not expect inflation to return to its target range of 2-3 per cent until mid-2028.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Big four banks cash in on zero interest

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Original article by Max Aitchison
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 21-Jan-26

Analysis by Jarden shows that customers of Australia’s four major banks hold a combined $320bn in transaction and business accounts that do not pay any interest. This equates to about 10 per cent of each of the four major banks’ total deposits, and nearly 20 per cent of the estimated $1.7trn in deposits held by all of the nation’s lenders. Jarden’s analysis also shows that the four big banks’ implied earnings from zero-interest accounts have risen sharply in recent years. Matt Wilson from Jarden says the major banks have benefited from customer loyalty and inertia in recent years; he adds that this may change in 2026, and customers may begin seeking better deals for their bank deposits.

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JARDEN GROUP LIMITED

Big four banks slammed over deposit deception for savings

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Original article by Max Aitchison
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 20-Jan-26

Research published in 2023 showed that two-thirds of customers at Australia’s four major banks are not earning the maxium interest rate on savings accounts that offer bonus rates. Data released by National Australia in response to a written request from Liberal MP Aaron Violi shows that this situation has not changed since then; NAB revealed that only 34 per cent of customers with a Reward Saver account earned the advertised bonus interest rate of 4.15 per cent in the last six months. Violi has called for an end to this ‘deposit deception’ and contends that all banks should be more transparent and remove hurdles to ensure that the majority of customers with such accounts can earn the maximum bonus interest rate.

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NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Overheating economy pushes RBA to uncomfortable hike talks

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Dec-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected, given the rise in both headline and underlying inflation in November. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock has stated that the underlying momentum in the economy suggests that further interest rate cuts may not be needed. Meanwhile, HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says his firm believes that the RBA may increase the cash rate in the September quarter, while Andrew Ticehurst from Nomura expects interest rates to remain on hold throughout 2026. Financial markets in turn have priced in the potential for two interest rate rises next year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

RBA cautious on any further rate cuts

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Original article by Luke Kinsella
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 19-Nov-25

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board meeting for November outline the circumstances under which it would consider further interest rate cuts. The minutes indicate that the RBA would only consider a rate cut if there is a material deterioration in the labour market or if households become more cautious about spending. The monetary policy board noted that inflationary pressures would be weaker under both scenarios, making interest rate cuts more likely. However, the RBA expects both the unemployment rate and economic growth to remain steady over the next several years.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation is going north, wages south

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Nov-25

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has indicated that the current monetary policy easing cycle could potentially be over, after the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent yesterday. The RBA has reduced official interest rates three times in 2025, but financial markets expect the next rate cut to occur in December 2026. Meanwhile, the RBA expects both headline and underlying inflation to remain above its target range of 2-3 per cent for at least another six months. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien has blamed Labor for the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold, contending that government spending is growing more than four times faster than the Australian economy.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

‘Not confident’: RBA pours cold water on Labor’s housing dream

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Oct-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia had been widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged at its monetary policy board meeting yesterday. Financial markets have priced in a 40 per cent chance of a rate cut at the next meeting in November, but RBA governor Michele Bullock says progress on returning core inflation to its mid-point target of 2.5 per cent will determine the next move on interest rates. Quarterly inflation data to be released ahead of the next board meeting is likely to be crucial. Meanwhile, Bullock has warned that federal government action to boost supply is unlikely to address the housing market’s structural deficit in the next two years.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA’s grim growth warning

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Aug-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its forecast for productivity growth in the medium-term from one per cent to just 0.7 per cent. RBA governor Michele Bullock says lower productivity growth is already resulting in slower growth in real wages; she adds that the central bank cannot do anything to lift productivity, and the outlook for this metric will depend on what the federal government does in response to its economic reform summit next week. The RBA has also warned that the domestic economy can now sustain a GDP growth rate of just two per cent a year. Meanwhile, economists expect another official interest rate cut by the end of 2025, after the RBA reduced it by 25 basis points to 3.6 per cent on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Lower interest rates a welcome relief, critical banks pass on full cut

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Original article by
Australian Retailers Association – Page: Online : 13-Aug-25

Retailers have welcomed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s announcement of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut as a vital confidence boost for the sector’ recovery. The Australian Retailers Association and the National Retail Association said that lower interest rates will encourage much-needed discretionary spending. The ARA’s CEO Chris Rodwell says the two clear messages that stem from the decision are that the RBA remain open to further cuts in 2025 – given that retail growth and consumer confidence remain subdued – and it is critical that banks act now to pass on the full rate cut. Rodwell adds that a stronger Australian economic trajectory cannot happen without a retail recovery.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, NATIONAL RETAIL ASSOCIATION LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA