INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

RBA warns job market may be about to sour

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Read, Tess Bennett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Aug-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for August show that it considered increasing the cash rate to 4.35 per cent. However, indications that the jobs market may at a "turning point" are among the reasons why the board opted for a second successive monthly pause. The RBA cited factors such as a small rise in the official underemployment rate, a fall in hiring intentions and improved labour availability as signs that the jobs boom may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, economists say weaker-than-expected wages growth will strengthen the case for the cash rate to remain on hold for an extended period.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Lowe: we are on way to taming inflation

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-Aug-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent on Tuesday will be a "welcome reprieve" for people who are "doing it tough". He adds that while inflation is falling, it is still too high. RBA governor Philip Lowe has also acknowledged that consumer price growth remains too high, but says the recent data is consistent with inflation returning to the target range of 2-3 per cent over time. Lowe adds that a second successive pause will give the RBA more time to assess the impact of the rate rises to date, as well as the economic outlook.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate hikes may cost even more jobs: RBA

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 19-Jul-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for July show that it considered a 25 basis point increase in the cash rate. The board also discussed the possibility that growing pressure on households’ budgets could result in consumption slowing more sharply than the current forecasts suggest. This would in turn result in slower demand for labour, while the unemployment rate would most likely rise beyond the rate required to ensure that inflation returns to the target range of 2-3 in a timely manner. National Australia Bank’s senior economist Adam Boynton expects interest rates to remain on hold, although he says a rate rise in August is still a possibility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Chalmers won’t back the unions on jobless target

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 4 : 17-Jul-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says he will not ‘pre-empt’ the monetary policy decisions that incoming Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock might recommend to its board. Chalmers adds that it "remains to be seen" as to whether inflation can be brought under control with higher levels of employment, and he says inflation is the main challenge facing the domestic economy. The ACTU has called for a "reset" of the RBA’s full employment target in the wake of Bullock’s appointment, while Australian Workers Union secretary Paul Farrow said the RBA should redefine full employment as being "understood as zero involuntary unemployment". Bullock had suggested in June that the unemployment rate will have to rise to 4.5 per cent to restore inflation to the target range of 2-3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN WORKERS’ UNION-FEDERATION OF INDUSTRIAL, MANUFACTURING AND ENGINEERING EMPLOYEES

1.4m borrowers at risk of repayment stress

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Jul-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled that further interest rate rises may be necessary in order to return inflation to its target range, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent on Tuesday. Households will face further financial pressure if there are more rate rises. Home loan borrowers will be particularly vulnerable, with research from Roy Morgan showing that 1.43 million mortgage borrowers are now at risk of mortgage stress; this is an increase of 627,000 in the last year. Roy Morgan estimates that an additional 51,000 borrowers would be at risk of mortgage stress if the cash rate is increased by another 25 basis points. A second rate rise of this size would put another 94,000 borrowers at risk of mortgage stress.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Housing market on knife edge despite rate pause

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 32 : 5-Jul-23

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher expects sentiment in the housing market to remain cautious in the near-term, despite the Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate pause. He is of the view that sentiment will not improve until there is a longer pause. Shane Oliver from AMP Capital anticipates that any upturn in housing market activity arising from the second interest rate pause since April is likely to be temporary. He adds that further interest rate increases could put renewed downward pressure on house prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

RBA set to stay tighter for longer

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 22 : 3-Jul-23

The consensus of economists polled by the Australian Financial Review is that official interest rates will peak at 4.6 per cent in August. Judo Bank economist Warren Hogan estimates that there is a 35 per cent chance that the cash rate will rise above five per cent, citing factors such as ‘sticky’ inflation. However, Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets expects the cash rate to peak at 4.35 per cent in July. Meanwhile, most of the 27 economists who participated in the quarterly survey anticipate that the Reserve Bank will not begin easing monetary policy before May 2024, although Carlos Cacho of Jarden expects the first rate cut to occur in November 2024.

CORPORATES
JUDO BANK PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JARDEN AND COMPANY

Economy’s lost year of stagnation

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 3-Jul-23

KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne contends Australia is in store for a period of extended economic gloom, brought on by what he states is a "deliberate" policy choice by the Reserve Bank. Modelling by KPMG suggests that unemployment will rise from 3.6 per cent to 4.2 per cent by the close of 2023, before rising steadily up to 4.6 per cent in mid-2024 and reaching a peak of five per cent in early 2025. Corinna Economic Advisory principal Saul Eslake thinks that the RBA might lift interest rates one more time, but that two "would be overdoing it", while he agrees with suggestions that the forecast 715,000 net increase in migration across two years might prevent a technical recession.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORINNA ECONOMIC ADVISORY

‘Scary’: Mortgage costs reach critical threshold

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 7-Jun-23

SQM Research’s MD Louis Christopher says the probability of a ‘double dip’ downturn in Australia’s housing market has increased to more than 60 per cent following the Reserve Bank’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.1 per cent. He notes that SQM’s research in late 2022 found that loan book managers identified a cash rate of about four per cent as the ‘line in the sand’ where many homeowners may be forced to sell. Christopher notes that the number of distressed listings is still quite low, but cautions that this may change as the full impact of the recent rate rises flows through to mortgage holders.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Pain, blame and, at this rate, it’s not over

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Jun-23

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has defended the decision to increase the case rate by 25 basis points to 4.1 per cent on Tuesday. He says the 12th rate rise since May 2022 was necessary to provide greater confidence that inflation will return to the target range within a reasonable timeframe. He also cautioned that further rate rises may be needed, depending on the outlook for the economy and inflation. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry contends that the recent 5.75 per cent increase in the minimum wage had forced the RBA’s hand. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers rejects suggestions that the minimum wage increase and the federal government’s 9 May budget were to blame for the latest rate rise. The cash rate is now at its highest level since April 2012.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY