INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

ANZ tips 0.25pc cash rate by May

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Original article by Melissa Yeo, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 6-Sep-19

The ANZ Bank’s head of Australian economics David Plank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by 0.25 per cent in October, and he says it is likely to ease monetary policy again in February and May 2020. Plank says factors such as the outlook for unemployment and global uncertainty will see official interest rates fall to a record low of 0.25 per cent. UBS economist George Tharenou also anticipates rate cuts in October and February, and he has flagged the potential for a third rate cut in March.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ANZ boss braces for slowdown

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Original article by Richard Gluyas, Glenda Korporaal, David Rogers, Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 4-Sep-19

Harvey Norman chairman Gerry Harvey expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate to at least 0.5 per cent, but he says this will do little to stimulate the economy. The RBA signalled on 3 September that official interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period; ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott says record low interest rates demonstrate that central banks are concerned about the global economic outlook. The RBA’s monthly board meeting coincided with the release of data showing that retail spending fell by 0.1 per cent in July, compared with economists’ expectations of an 0.2 per cent increase.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, LATITUDE FINANCIAL SERVICES AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

RBA eyes housing rebound as economic growth slows

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 4-Sep-19

The latest national accounts data is expected to show that Australia’s GDP growth slowed to about 1.5 per cent in the year to June, well below the federal government’s May 2019 Budget forecast of 2.25 per cent growth. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that economic growth will improve "gradually"; he notes that although new housing construction activity remains weak, there are signs of an upturn in the established housing market. The central bank’s decision to leave official interest rates on hold in September coincided with the release of data confirming a current account surplus of $5.9bn for the June quarter, the first since the 1970s.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

‘Political shocks turn into economic shocks’: RBA chief

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Aug-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has told the global monetary policy conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming that the world is experiencing a period of major political shocks that are turning into economic shocks. Lowe also reiterated the need for governments to provide economic stimulus via infrastructure investment and structural reform, arguing that monetary policy alone is insufficient. Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government lacks a plan to turn around the Australian economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BANK OF ENGLAND, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Cure for housing fix ‘worse than disease’: UBS

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 23-Aug-19

Investment bank UBS has warned that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s move towards extremely low interest rates risks reflating the residential property ‘bubble’. The ultra-low rates are also putting pressure on the dividend policies and margin levels of the nation’s large banks, while plans by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reduce related-party exposure limits with regard to Tier 1 capital will put pressure on the banks’ capital.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA RADIATION LABORATORIES, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Bank charges on deposits a possibility

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 23-Aug-19

Data from the Reserve Bank shows that nearly 10 per cent of the deposits held by Australia’s major banks received no interest prior to the official interest rate cut in July, while a similar proportion of deposits earned interest of less than 50 basis points. Swiss Re’s chief economist Jerome Haegeli says Australian banks could potentially begin charging customers to hold their deposits. Several banks in Europe have already announced such a move, while the Bank of New York Mellon did so in 2011.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SWISS REINSURANCE COMPANY, THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORPORATION, UBS AG, JYSKE BANK, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Fixed rate falling to new lows under 3pc

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 21 : 22-Aug-19

Australia’s residential property market has received a boost in the lead-up to the key selling season, with a number of banks reducing their fixed mortgage interest rates to new lows. Greater Bank has slashed its one-year fixed rate to just 2.79 per cent, while some owner-occupier loans offered by St George and the Bank of Melbourne have been reduced to 2.94 per cent. Sally Tindall of RateCity cautions that fixed home loan interest rates may fall even lower, given that the Reserve Bank may further reduce the cash rate.

CORPORATES
GREATER BANK LIMITED, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BANK OF MELBOURNE LIMITED, BANK OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RATECITY PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, CANSTAR PTY LTD

More rate cuts in RBA mix to guard economy

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Aug-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monthly board meeting show that the central bank will be open to further easing of monetary policy if the economic outlook worsens. The minutes also indicate that RBA board members expect that official interest rates may need to remain at a record low for some time in order to achieve the central bank’s inflation target. However, the RBA also indicated that it will assess developments in the global and domestic economies before taking any further monetary policy action. Sally Auld of JP Morgan does not expect a rate cut until February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Bond signal: ultra-low rates for a decade

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 9-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce the cash rate below 0.5 per cent within six months, and overnight indexed swaps pricing suggests that the cash rate will average 0.84 per cent over the next decade. David Plank of the ANZ Bank warns that the central bank will most likely need to adopt a quantitative easing policy within 5-10 years; he adds that this will probably not be necessary in the next year or so, unless there is a significant downturn in the global economy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS

RBA’s Lowe faces grilling over cheap money

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 8-Aug-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe will appear before a parliamentary committee on 9 August. His testimony is likely to attract increased scrutiny after the central bank’s New Zealand counterpart reduced official interest rates by 50 basis points. The House of Representatives’ economics committee is chaired by Liberal MP Tim Wilson. He says the RBA’s dual rate cuts in June and July and how it expects to eventually begin tightening monetary policy when household debt is rising are among the issues that will come under scrutiny.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA