INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

RBA to cut twice more, say economists

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 18 : 1-Jul-19

A quarterly survey of economists shows that there is a widely held expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates two more times during 2019. This would reduce the cash rate to 0.75 per cent, but David Plank of the ANZ Banks says further rate cuts could be necessary, depending on the outlook for the global economy and the Australian dollar. David Bassanese of BetaShares says the RBA would be unlikely to take the cash rate below 0.5 per cent, and it would probably opt for quantitative easing instead. Many economists expect a rate cut on 2 July.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Capitals hit bottom of property cycle

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 1-Jul-19

Valuation company Herron Todd White contends that Melbourne, Perth, Darwin and Brisbane are at the bottom of the residential property cycle, and that Sydney is not far off getting there. On the other hand, Canberra, where there is a shortage of property, is at market peak. HTW’s assessment comes as a majority of economists predict that the Reserve Bank will cut cash rates for the second month in a row, even though rates are already at a record low.

CORPORATES
HERRON TODD WHITE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

History suggests rate cut in July unlikely

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 28-Jun-19

Financial markets have priced in a 72 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in July. However, analysis shows that the central bank has reduced the cash rate in two consecutive months on just 12 of the 46 occasions on which it has eased monetary policy since 1990. The RBA has not reduced the cash rate in two consecutive months since 1992, when there were concerns about the outlook for the global economy. Chris Read of Morgan Stanley says an easing pause in July would enable the RBA to pursue a gradual cutting cycle.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

ANZ squeezes savers more than borrowers

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 27-Jun-19

The ANZ Bank has defended its decision to reduce the interest rates on its popular ANZ Progress Saver and ANZ Online Saver accounts by 20 basis points. A spokesman says ANZ still has the best interest rates for comparable products among Australia’s major banks. Sally Tindall of RateCity warns that savers can expect interest rates to fall further, given that the Reserve Bank is tipped to reduce the cash rate again. ANZ reduced its mortgage interest rates by 18 basis points after the official interest rate cut in early June.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RATECITY PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UBANK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA signals more rate cuts needed

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 19-Jun-19

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting show that it expects to further reduce official interest rates in coming months. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank anticipates rate cuts in August and November, when the central bank updates the economic forecasts in its quarterly monetary policy statements. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan also expects a rate cut in August, although he says July remains a possibility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MSCI WORLD INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Big banks weather deposit storm

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 18-Jun-19

Westpac and the ANZ Bank elected not to pass on the full extent of the recent cut in official interest rates to their mortgage loan customers. As a result, they have not yet made changes to their deposit rates for retail customers, which is good news for customers who use interest from their accounts to help bolster their income. However, banks cannot maintain a gap between their mortgage rates and their deposit rates for too long, as this impacts on their bottom line.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ISELECT LIMITED – ASX ISU, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL

Australian government bonds forecast to fall below 1pc

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 18-Jun-19

The yield on 10-year Australian government bonds recovered slightly to 1.39 per cent on 17 June, after falling to a record low of 1.37 per cent in the previous week. Concern about the global economic outlook is weighing on bond yields worldwide, and Sally Auld of JP Morgan says the current bearish environment could see Australia’s 10-year bond yield fall below one per cent by the end of 2019. Steve Miller of Grant Samuel Funds Management says the expectation of further official interest cuts is putting downward pressure on local bond yields.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, GRANT SAMUEL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, ARDEA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cut may lead to riskier investing

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 13-Jun-19

Anthony Doyle of Fidelity International says Australian savers are likely to seek out higher-yielding and higher-risk investments following the Reserve Bank’s decision to reduce the cash rate to a new low of 1.25 per cent. He notes that there was a similar trend in the UK following the global financial crisis, with Britain’s cash rate reaching a low of just 25 basis points. Doyle also expects the search for yield to bolster Australia’s corporate bond market.

CORPORATES
FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, M&G INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED

RBA warns rates may go lower to drive jobs

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 13-Jun-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia recently downwardly revised its estimate of full employment from 5.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent. Assistant governor Luci Ellis has indicated that the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment may in fact be as low as 3.5 per cent, adding that the central bank may have to keep reducing the cash rate until the unemployment rate reaches this level. Australia’s official unemployment rate is currently about five per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Savers to be slugged $1.3b by rate cut

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 12-Jun-19

Data from Canstar shows that smaller banks have reduced their interest rates on at-call cash accounts by up to 30 basis points in the wake of the Reserve Bank’s official interest rate cut. The four major banks have yet to reduce their own rates on at-call accounts, but Finder’s Graham Cooke warns that is only a matter of time. It is estimated that savers’ income from the interest on at-call accounts will be slashed by around $1.3bn if the official interest rate cut is passed on in full.

CORPORATES
CANSTAR PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FINDER.COM.AU, AMP BANK LIMITED, SUNCORP BANK, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, BANK AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, MACQUARIE CREDIT UNION LIMITED, RATECITY PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC