INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Odds of post-election rate cut mispriced, says Ellerston

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 31 : 10-May-19

Financial market traders have priced in a 20 per cent chance of an official interest rate cut in June, after the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate on hold in May. Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital argues that the central bank would have wanted to avoid adjusting monetary policy during an election campaign, as it could potentially have been accused of influencing the outcome of the election. He expects a rate cut in June, stating that the RBA’s mandate requires it to do so as soon as possible.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, TUDOR INVESTMENT CORPORATION, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Why New Zealand moved and the RBA held

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 9-May-19

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to reduce the cash rate for the first time since 2016 had been widely expected. The central bank attributed its move to the outlook for global economic outlook and domestic factors such as the outlook for employment and inflation. Meanwhile, market pricing suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the cash rate on hold until at least September, while a second rate cut could be delayed until May 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA sets jobless test for rate cut

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-May-19

The Reserve Bank has downgraded its 2019 growth forecast for the Australian economy from three per cent to around 2.75 per cent. The central bank indicated on 7 May that a "further improvement" in the labour market will be necessary to lift inflation to its target range. It has also flagged the prospect of an interest rate cut if the employment rate does not fall below five per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank says the central bank will almost certainly reduce the cash rate if there is even a modest rise in unemployment.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

RBA pressures banks to cut rates

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 8-May-19

Australian banks’ net interest margin fell by 11 basis points in the first half of 2018-19, compared with the previous corresponding period. Jarrod Martin of Credit Suisse says ongoing margin pressure means the banks are unlikely to reduce their variable mortgage interest rates independently of the Reserve Bank. Victor German of Macquarie Group adds if the Reserve Bank had reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points on 7 May, the banks would probably have reduced their variable rates by around 20 basis points.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Rate cut will be little help, says Westpac

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Original article by James Eyers, James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 17 : 7-May-19

The futures market has priced in a 38 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate on 7 May. Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer warns that a rate cut will have limited impact on economic growth and consumer spending, given that the cash rate is already at a historic low. He argues that government spending has been a key driver of economic growth, but the political debates needs to have a greater focus on measures that will drive private sector growth and investment. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen says the fact that interest rates could potentially fall further demonstrates the "real concern" about the economy under the Coalition.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, CLIME ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

RBA set to cut, Macquarie predicts

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 3-May-19

Inflation remains well below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and Ric Deverell of Macquarie Group notes that it is continuing to trend lower. He says the inflation outlook is the key factor that will prompt the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates by 25 basis points on 7 May. Deverell adds that a rate cut will have more impact while the unemployment rate is low rather than if the central bank waits until it rises.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Keep RBA’s rate trigger away from politics

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Original article by Perry Williams, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 22 : 2-May-19

APA Group’s Mick McCormack has weighed into the debate on the outlook for monetary policy, saying the Reserve Bank should not reduce the cash rate in May. He argues that a rate cut during an election campaign would "inevitably" become politicised. ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott also believes that an interest rate cut is needed in May, and a number of economists have forecast a rate cut. However, financial markets have priced in a 44 per cent chance of a rate cut at the central bank’s monthly board meeting.

CORPORATES
APA GROUP – ASX APA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, TD SECURITIES, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

The votes are in: Macquarie joins calls for an early cut in interest rates

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Original article by Perry Williams, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 30-Apr-19

The chances of a reduction in the cash rate in May is around 50 per cent, according to financial market pricing. However, a growing number of economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to ease monetary policy in May. Macquarie Group is the latest to forecast a rate cut in May, and chief economist Ric Deverell says the RBA is unlikely to be unduly concerned about reducing the cash rate during an election campaign. Macquarie says the central bank might also reduce its GDP growth and inflation forecasts at the monthly board meeting.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, TD SECURITIES, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

RBA’s election rate cut no done deal

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 26-Apr-19

The futures market has priced in a 67 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in May. IFM’s chief economist Alex Joiner says the central bank is more likely to leave rates on hold until June, so it can take into account the latest employment and wages data. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank in turn says the RBA would not be concerned about adjusting the cash rate during an election campaign. However, he notes that the central bank has made it clear that the timing of any change in monetary policy will depend on the outlook for unemployment and inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, QIC LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Reserve Bank ready to cut rates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 26 : 17-Apr-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting indicate that the central bank still expects gradual progress in lifting the inflation rate to its target range and reducing the unemployment rate. However, the minutes show that the RBA would be prepared to reduce the cash rate if inflation remains low and unemployment increases. The Australian dollar fell to a two-week low of $US0.714 in local trading in response to the release of the RBA’s minutes.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED