INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Dutton to RBA: resist pressure to cut rates

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Original article by Michael Read, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Feb-25

Bond market traders have priced in a 95 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate next week. The case for a rate cut was strengthened by recent data showing that the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation has fallen to 3.2 per cent. However, Opposition leader Peter Dutton says there is concern that the RBA may need to tighten monetary policy again if it reduces the cash rate too soon. He has urged RBA governor Michele Bullock to act in the nation’s best interests rather than yielding to political pressure to cut interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

NAB cuts rates ahead of Reserve

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Original article by Cameron Micallef
The Australian – Page: 19 : 4-Feb-25

National Australia Bank has pre-empted the Reserve Bank’s upcoming monetary policy decision by reducing some of its mortgage interest rates. NAB has become the first major bank to cut its fixed interest rates in 2025, although Sally Tindall from Canstar expects rival banks to do so as well. Canstar notes that NAB has reduced its fixed rates for owner-occupiers by up to 0.25 percentage points, while fixed interest rates for property investors have been cut by up to 0.3 percentage points. The RBA is widely tipped to reduce the cash rate at its board meeting in mid-February.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CANSTAR PTY LTD

Inflation fall fuels election fight

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Original article by Greg Brown, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 30-Jan-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says a ‘soft landing’ for the Australian economy is becoming "more and more likely" following the release of CPI data for the December quarter. The headline inflation rate fell 0.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent in the year to December; the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation eased to 3.2 per cent, below the central bank’s own expectations of 3.4 per cent. Three of Australia’s four major banks now expect an official interest cut in February. However, Warren Hogan from Judo Bank says the economic case for a rate cut is very weak; he notes amongst other things that core inflation remain above the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, while the cost-of-living crisis is still a major issue for many Australians.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JUDO BANK PTY LTD

Living standards stagnant until 2030: Deloitte

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jan-25

Deloitte Access Economics has forecast that state and federal government spending will reach a record 28 per cent of real GDP by the end of 2025. This compares with an average of 22 per cent in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The firm has warned that despite rising government expenditure, Australians’ living standards will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2030. Meanwhile, Deloitte partner Stephen Smith expects that CPI data to be released today will show that inflation is moving sustainably towards the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. However, he says factors such as a resilient labour market, elevated government spending and a falling Australian dollar are complicating the central bank’s decision on interest rates.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ probed on account interest

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, David Ross
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 22-Jan-25

The ANZ Bank is believed to be under renewed scrutiny by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, in the wake of recent claims that it deducted fees from the accounts of customers who had died. ANZ has now been accused of incorrectly calculating the interest on a range of savings and deposit accounts, including bonus interest rates. ANZ was embroiled in a similar scandal in 2015, when it was forced to compensate customers regarding the bonus interest they received over a seven-year period.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Faltering dollar unlikely to sway Reserve Bank rates call

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Original article by Cameron Micallef
The Australian – Page: 19 : 22-Jan-25

The Australian dollar fell sharply on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump signalled that a tariff of 25 per cent could be imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico from the start of February. However, AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the recent downturn in the value of the currency is unlikely to influence the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision in February. Oliver contends that quarterly inflation data to be released in late January will be the key factor that the central bank will take into account.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Home values fall but rates could save the day

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 11-Dec-24

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices in Sydney have fallen by 0.4 per cent in the last four weeks, while the Melbourne housing market is down 0.5 per cent. Tim Lawless from CoreLogic expects the residential market to be "subdued" until the Reserve Bank starts reducing the cash rate. ANZ Bank economist Madeline Dunk says the central bank is likely to announce the first rate cut in May, although she adds that February remains a possibility. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver in turn says a rate cut in February would put a floor under house prices.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

RBA lifts Labor hopes of rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 11-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. However, the RBA’s monetary policy statement has notably omitted a line which stated that the board is "not ruling anything in or out". RBA governor Michele Bullock has in turn noted that the latest wages and economic growth data has given the board some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining; however, she cautioned that the board is of the view that underlying price pressures are still too high. Bond traders have now priced in a 62 per cent chance of an official interest rate cut at the RBA’s next board meeting in February; a second rate cut has been widely tipped for April, with the federal election set to be held no later than mid-May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA getting it wrong on jobs

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 2 : 10-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank convened for its final board meeting for 2024 on Monday, with ACTU secretary Sally McManus being joined by union members outside its Sydney headquarters as she called on the RBA to cut interest rates. Melbourne University economics professor Jeff Borland, who is considered Australia’s leading labor market expert, contends the Australian jobs market is not as strong as the RBA thinks, and that its true state does not justify the RBA keeping the cash rate at 4.35 per cent; the RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ACTU, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE

Jobs rush likely to postpone rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 20-Nov-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia has noted in the minutes of its board meeting for November that there are signs that the job market is beginning to tighten. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1 per cent in October, and RBA governor Michelle Bullock has previously indicated that the strength of the labour market is amongst the reasons why further interest rate increases could be on the agenda. HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham agrees with the RBA’s assessment that the labour market may not weaken further, which is likely to rule out an interest rate cut in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC HOLDINGS PLC