INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Jobless rate at lowest in seven years

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 19-Oct-18

Australia’s headline unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in September, while the trend rate was steady at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank had forecast that the jobless rate would fall to five per cent by the end of 2020, and the latest figures have prompted speculation that it may begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected. However, Craig James of the Commonwealth Bank does not expect it to take action while the official underemployment rate is 8.3 per cent. Meanwhile, Paul Dales of Capital Economics says a significant increase in wages may be dependent on the jobless rate falling to around four per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Stoked US pushes rates up, $A down

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Original article by John Kehoe, Jacob Greber, Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 5-Oct-18

The Australian dollar fell to a 2.5 year low of $US0.7078 on 4 October, with analysts tipping it could soon fall to below $US0.70 on the back of rising US interest rates. A combination of higher oil prices and a falling Australian dollar could push petrol prices up above $2 per litre, although a weaker dollar could help to make Australian exports more competitive and lead to reduced demand for more expensive imports. Fitch Solutions Macro Research suggested a rise in oil prices could trigger inflation, which could force the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates sooner than expected.

CORPORATES
FITCH AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GRANT SAMUEL AND ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, OUTLOOK ECONOMICS, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

RBA keeps cash rate at 1.5pc, but sees clouds on horizon

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 3-Oct-18

The latest quarterly survey of economists shows that the general consensus is that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely before late 2019. The Reserve Bank of Australia left official interest rates unchanged on 2 October, and governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that progress in reducing the unemployment rate and lifting inflation to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent is likely to be gradual. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank expects the outlook for the housing market to influence the timing of any change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Rates gulf with US is at its widest yet

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 28-Sep-18

The divergence between official interest rates in Australian and the US has widened to its highest level since the Reserve Bank adopted inflation targeting in the 1990s. The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point increase in the cash rate is its eighth rate rise in less than three years, while the Reserve Bank has left rates on hold since August 2016. Bloomberg expects another two US rate rises in the next year, while Australian rates could well remain on hold. Economists say a further widening of the interest rate differential could put downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Westpac slashes new borrower rates

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 20-Sep-18

Westpac will increase its standard variable mortgage interest rates for existing customers by 14 basis points on 20 September, with several of its major rivals to lift their rates in coming weeks. However, Westpac will also target new home loan customers, offering rate cuts of up to 110 basis points for the first five years. Customers will then be offered a discount of 80 basis points for the life of their loan. National Australia Bank has yet to announce any changes to its interest rates for existing customers.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BANK OF MELBOURNE LIMITED, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BANK OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Cost of home loan less than 2017: RBA

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 22 : 19-Sep-18

A number of Australian lender have increased their mortgage interest rates since the Reserve Bank’s last board meeting on 4 September. However, the minutes of the meeting note that the cost of financing a home loan remains lower than at the same time in 2017. The Reserve Bank also observed that bank funding costs are still low by historical standards. In addition, the Reserve Bank gave indications that the next movement in the cash rate is likely to be upward, although this is not expected in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ and CBA hike variable home loans rates

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: Online : 7-Sep-18

The Commonwealth Bank and the ANZ both announced increases to their variable home loan rates on 6 September. The ANZ will increase its rates by 16 basis points as from 27 September, while the CBA’s 15 basis point increase will take effect from 4 October. Fred Ohlsson, the head of ANZ Australia, said the decision to lift rates was a difficult one, while CBA retail bank boss Angus O’Sullivan said it had lifted its rates after "careful consideration". The announcement by the ANZ and the CBA that they were lifting their rates prompted the Australian dollar to fall from $US0.7202 to $US0.7180.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Watchdog’s growl could keep banks from following Westpac

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 21 : 31-Aug-18

Jon Mott of UBS has suggested that the federal government could potentially increase the bank levy in response to Westpac’s move to increase its variable home loan interest rates. Mott adds that the other major banks may not increase their rates immediately as their net interest margins are under less pressure, while they may also be deterred by the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission’s focus on the banking sector.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Move likely to delay RBA hike

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 31-Aug-18

Data from Bloomberg shows that financial markets view the chances of a reduction in the cash rate by the end of 2019 to be just 58.7 per cent in the wake of Westpac’s out-of-cycle increase in its variable mortgage interest rates. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the other major banks are likely to follow, which will in turn mean that the Reserve Bank is likely to leave the cash rate on hold until least 2020. Oliver and David Bassanese of Betashares Capital also suggest that the central bank could potentially reduce the cash rate if Westpac’s rivals increase their interest rates.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, CANSTAR PTY LTD, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BANK OF MELBOURNE LIMITED, BANK OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RAMS HOME LOANS PTY LTD

Rates on the rise: Westpac takes first shot with interest hike

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 30-Aug-18

Sally Tindall of RateCity expects Westpac’s major rivals to quickly follow its lead in announcing an increase in its mortgage interest rates. Westpac has cited higher funding costs for its decision to increase the rates on interest-only and principal-and-interest loans for owner-occupiers and property investors from 19 September. Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer says the bank is of the view that higher funding costs are likely to be sustained for some time. The Reserve Bank has not increased official interest rates since August 2016.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RATECITY PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, AMP BANK LIMITED, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, ING DIRECT, ME BANK, SUNCORP BANK, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BEYOND BANK AUSTRALIA, AUSWIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX ABA, MYSTATE LIMITED – ASX MYS, QBANK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY