INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Housing outlook dims amid forecasts of falling prices

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Original article by Robyn Ironside
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 20-Jun-18

The ANZ Bank expects house prices in Melbourne and Sydney to fall around 10 per cent by the end of 2019. Senior economist Daniel Gradwell adds that a fall of about four per cent nationally is now expected in 2018, followed by a two per cent decline in 2019. He notes that ANZ had previously forecast a modest rise in house prices in both years. Gradwell also says the Reserve Bank is likely to leave the cash rate on hold until the second half of 2019 due to the outlook for the housing market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Fed hikes put squeeze on banks

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 28 : 15-Jun-18

The US Federal Reserve has signalled that two more interest rate increases are likely in 2018, following its second rate rise for the year. The new target range for the federal funds rate is between 1.75% and 2%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its cash rate at 1.5% for almost two years. The divergence in monetary policy has coincided with rising wholesale borrowing costs for Australia’s major banks, as well as a recent spike in the bank bill swap rate. Shane Oliver of AMP says local banks could potentially respond by increasing their mortgage rates on investment and interest-only loans.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, FINANCIAL STABILITY BOARD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SOCIETE GENERALE SA, BNP PARIBAS SA, GRUPO SANTANDER

Exports revive wage hope

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 : 7-Jun-18

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy expanded by one per cent in the March quarter and 3.1 per cent year-on-year. The economy recorded nominal growth of 2.2 per cent for the quarter, while real net national disposable income per capita rose by 1.5 per cent. Despite the better-than-expected GDP data, the Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to leave the cash rate on hold until at least late 2019, although growth in wages may be a key factor in the timing of any change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY

OECD’s blue-sky outlook supports budget’s growth projections

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 5 : 31-May-18

The OECD has forecast that the Reserve Bank will be able to commence tightening monetary policy by the end of 2018 due the outlook for the Australian economy. The OECD expects economic growth of 2.9 per cent in 2018 and three per cent in 2019, while further strong growth in the employment market is forecast to have a flow-on effect for wages by the end of 2018. However, the OECD warned that the risks associated with high house prices require "continued vigilance".

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

House prices ‘won’t sway the RBA’

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 29-May-18

Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper says factors such as the low growth in wages means the central bank is unlikely to increase official interest rates in the near-term. He adds that slowing growth in residential property prices will also not influence the timing of a rise in the cash rate. Financial markets do not expect monetary policy to be tightened until at least late 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MELBOURNE BUSINESS SCHOOL

Wage woes a boon for investors, says Tevfik

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 23-May-18

The S&P/ASX 200 has fallen by an average of 4.3 per cent during May and June over the last decade, and the current trend suggests that it will be trading at around 5,724.8 points by the end of June. However, Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse still expects it to reach 6,500 points by the end of 2018. He says corporate profit margins – and in turn share prices – should benefit from expectations that wages growth will remain subdued. Lack of growth in wages will also affect the timing of any rise in official interest rates, which Credit Suisse does not expect until about mid-2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED – ASX AHG, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX

Flat wages cast doubt on budget

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-May-18

New figures show that Australian wages rose by just 0.5 per cent in the March quarter, unchanged from the three months to December. Independent economist Saul Eslake says the wage price index data may undermine the Federal Government’s forecast for a Budget surplus in 2019-20, which is dependent on growth in wages and consumer spending. The subdued growth in wages may also affect the outlook for official interest rates, with Sarah Hunger of BIS Oxford Economics suggesting that the cash rate could potentially be on hold until 2020.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

No change in rate, and RBA predicting more economic acceleration

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 2-May-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave official interest rates unchanged on 1 May was widely anticipated. The cash rate has now been on hold for an unprecedented 21 months. RBA governor Philip Lowe said the central bank still expects an increase in wages and inflation to be gradual, as will a fall in the unemployment rate. However, Lowe again said the Australian economy is likely to expand by more than three per cent in 2018 and 2019, compared with just 2.4 per cent in 2017.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA talks up rate rise, but not just yet

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 18-Apr-18

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s latest board meeting show that board members expect monetary policy to be tightened rather than eased, although they have indicated that this is unlikely in the near-term given the outlook for inflation and unemployment. Meanwhile, Bill Evans of Westpac says the central bank is likely to downgrade its growth forecast for the Australian economy in 2018 from 3.25 per cent to three per cent in its next statement on monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

First rate rise will shock, warns RBA’s Lowe

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 12-Apr-18

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that there is likely to be a gradual increase in economic growth and wages, which should ensure that interest rates remain on hold in the near-term. Lowe also used an Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce speech to emphasise that the cash rate is expected to rise rather than fall when the central bank next adjusts monetary policy, and he noted that interests have not risen for more than seven years. Some economists now expect the cash rate to remain at 1.5 per cent until 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA-ISRAEL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE