INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Stronger $A a bump for RBA rate hike

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Durkin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 29-Jan-18

The Australian dollar rose above $US0.81 in offshore trading on the weekend of 27-28 January, extending its gains since early December to eight per cent. Factors such as a falling US dollar and strengthening commodity prices have contributed to the Australian currency’s recent rally. However, the dollar’s rise may affect the timing of any change in official interest rates. Meanwhile, Citigroup expects the currency to be trading at around its current level at the end of 2018, although Westpac anticipates a fall of around $US0.09.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Jobs surge supports RBA’s growth forecasts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 15-Dec-17

The latest jobs data may strengthen the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to begin lifting the cash rate in late 2018. Some 62,000 jobs were created in November, and 383,000 in the last year, while the unemployment rate was steady at 5.4 per cent. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data also supports the central bank’s view that economic growth will be above its trend rate in 2018. However, Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan says the RBA is likely to keep interest rates on hold while the unemployment rate remains at its current level, while George Tharenou of UBS does not expect a rate rise until 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Slow growth puts a brake on rate rises

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 7-Dec-17

The latest GDP data has prompted financial markets to price in an 84 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase the cash rate by the end of 2018, down from 94 per cent previously. The economy expanded by a lower-than-expected 0.6 per cent in the September 2017 quarter, while year-on-year growth rose from 1.9 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, growth in household consumption slowed to just 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rebound in wage data offers glimmer of hope

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 5-Dec-17

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that wages in the private sector rose by 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter during the three months to September, and 2.5 per cent year-on-year. Data on public sector wage growth will be released with the national accounts on 6 December. However, the latest data suggests that the Reserve Bank will have scope to increase the cash rate if the recent growth in wages is sustained. Craig James of CommSec expects an interest rate rise in late 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

House prices to fall further: economists

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 5-Dec-17

UBS says the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to reduce official interest rates in the near-term, despite data showing that house prices in Sydney fell by 1.3 per cent in the three months to November. UBS notes that in the past the RBA has frequently reduced the cash rate in response to a sharp fall in house prices. The firm adds that a further downturn in house prices is likely. Meanwhile, LF Economics expects the royal commission into the banking sector to have a significant impact on house prices.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LF ECONOMICS, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

OECD urges RBA to start lifting rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Nov-17

The OECD expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift interest rates in the second half of 2018, even if the inflation rate remains within the RBA’s target of two to three per cent. The OECD argues that rates will need to be increased in order to address concerns about Australia’s debt levels and to dampen down its housing market. The OECD has also called on the federal government to stick to its goal of improving the budget.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Signs of life in corporate investment: RBA

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers, James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 28 : 14-Nov-17

The Reserve Bank’s deputy governor Guy Debelle has told the UBS Australasia Conference that business investment outside of Australia’s mining sector has been stronger than official figures suggest in the last several years. He said the services sector in particular has recorded strong growth in capital investment, while there has also been an increase in public investment in infrastructure. Meanwhile, Debelle noted that a rise in the cash rate will be dependent on an increase in wages and inflation.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

RBA can just sit back and watch the Fed

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 13-Nov-17

The latest monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank and the Federal Reserve used identical wording to describe the current state of the Australian and US economies. The Federal Reserve is widely tipped to increase official interest rates again in December, which will allow the Reserve Bank to observe the impact of a rate rise in a low-inflation, low wages growth environment before taking any action of its own. There is no pressing need for the Reserve Bank to act, given that the unemployment rate remains well above that of the US and is not expected to fall in the next two years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Growth hopes up as rates stay low

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 8-Nov-17

Financial markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates at 1.5 per cent until the second half of 2018, after it made no change to monetary policy on 7 November. RBA governor Philip Lowe noted that business conditions are improving, particularly the outlook for business investment in non-mining sectors of the economy. He also said growth in wages will remain low in the near-term but an upturn in the labour market will eventually have a flow-on effect, while he has forecast a further decline in the unemployment rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

RBA held up by flagging inflation

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 26-Oct-17

Official data shows that growth in Australia’s headline consumer prices was below expectations at just 0.6 per cent in the September quarter, for an annual inflation rate of 1.8 per cent. Growth in the core inflation rate slowed to 0.3-0.4 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in the June quarter. The data has dampened expectations that the Reserve Bank will increase the cash rate in the near-term, with financial markets now pricing in a 36 per cent chance of a rate rise by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY