INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

NAB forecasts more cuts in interest rates

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 10-Aug-16

National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by another 50 basis points in the next 12 months, to a record low of one per cent. The banking major anticipates rate cuts in both May and August 2017. Meanwhile, NAB’s latest monthly survey shows that both business sentiment and business conditions declined in July 2016. Likewise, the ANZ Bank-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index fell by 2.8 per cent in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Elliott steadies the ship at ANZ

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 21 & 25 : 10-Aug-16

The ANZ Bank has posted a cash profit of $A5.2bn for the nine months to 30 June 2016, which is three per cent lower than previously. ANZ’s earnings for the June 2016 quarter were below expectations at around $A1.7bn, while bad debt charges rose to $A482m during the quarter. Meanwhile, CEO Shayne Elliott has defended the banks’ decision to pass on only part of the 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate to home loan customers and increase the interest rates on some term deposits.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Cutting rates to get the $A lower brings risks to the economy

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 10-Aug-16

The Australian dollar has risen above $US0.76 since the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate to a record low of 1.5 per cent on 2 August 2016. The currency has benefited from the fact that the local cash rate is still quite high relative to many countries, so further money policy easing may be necessary in order to put sustained downward pressure on the dollar. However, this strategy has economic risks, such as the potential to undermine consumer confidence. Indeed, the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 2.8 per cent to 114.7 in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, TD SECURITIES, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Interest rate cut brings out home buyers

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Aug-16

Preliminary data from Corelogic shows that Sydney boasted a residential auction clearance rate of more than 80 per cent on the weekend of 6-7 August 2016, compared with 78.3 per cent at the same time in 2015. The clearance rate in Melbourne was 76.1 per cent, down from 78.5 per cent a year ago. The Reserve Bank’s move to reduce the cash rate to a record low of 1.5 per cent prompted renewed activity among first-home buyers, although auctioneer Damien Cooley notes that they are still being edged out by property investors.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GOODYER DONNELLEY REAL ESTATE, BELLE PROPERTY PTY LTD, McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA, CBRE PTY LTD, HOCKING STUART PTY LTD, RAY WHITE REAL ESTATE

CEOs warn: bashing banks a growth risk

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 5-Aug-16

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison have been asked to refrain from criticising the banks. Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer said on 4 August 2016 that their criticism is unwarranted. He stated that the banks could not pass on the recent official interest rate cut in full because of the necessity to balance the interests of borrowers with the need for prudent management of their funding needs. Turnbull reminded the banks that they have an obligation to act in socially responsible ways.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BANKERS’ ASSOCIATION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Banks reject Turnbull demand

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Aug-16

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has criticised the major banks for failing to reduce their interest rates by the full 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate on 2 August 2016. Turnbull says the banks have a "social licence" and their CEOs should explain why the rate cut was not passed on to their customers in full. ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott has conceded that banks should do more to explain their decisions on interest rates, but notes that wholesale funding costs are rising and the banks will be subject to new capital requirements.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BANKERS’ ASSOCIATION

Lower rates help stocks but won’t spur growth

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 31 : 4-Aug-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 6.3 per cent in July 2016, but it has shed 2.2 per cent since the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate to a record low on 2 August. However, equities are likely to benefit from a likely trend for self-managed superannuation funds to reduce their exposure to cash as returns from such investments fall. The outlook for interest rates in Australia and abroad is also likely to ensure that price-earnings ratios remain elevated for some time.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

RBA cuts, dismissing property bubble risk

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 3-Aug-16

Financial markets believe there is a 52 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce official interest rates to 1.25 per cent by November 2016, after the cash rate was cut by 25 basis points to 1.5 per cent on 2 August. The central bank has now reduced the cash rate by 3.25 per cent during the current monetary policy easing cycle, which began in late 2011. The RBA has warned that inflation is likely to remain low for some time, and noted that a housing price bubble now appears to be unlikely.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Post-Brexit rally tipped to continue

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 2-Aug-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 6.3 per cent in July 2016, and it has risen by 11 per cent since falling sharply after the UK voted to leave the European Union. The benchmark index is likely to continue to perform well in August, regardless of whether the Reserve Bank decides to reduce the cash rate. The bourse is benefiting from expectations that interest rates in Australia and overseas will remain low for some time. The latest GDP data in the US has dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in 2016.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN

Rates cut on cards as economy loses gloss

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 2-Aug-16

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to reduce official interest rates to a new low of 1.5 per cent on 2 August 2016. The central bank’s monetary policy easing cycle began in November 2011, and it has since reduced the cash rate 11 times. Factors such as Australia’s low inflation rate and the uncertain outlook for the US and Chinese economies may prompt another cut. However, Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the RBA will be mindful that a rate cut could put more upward pressure on house prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC