INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Rate cut in near future seen as unlikely

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 22-Jan-16

The general consensus of Australian economists is that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged in February 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP is the only economist out of 14 who believes that recent financial market volatility could result in an interest rate cut. He adds that the upcoming release of inflation data for the December 2015 quarter is likely to be the deciding factor. Meanwhile, the ANZ Bank’s chief economist Warren Hogan expects the cash rate to be cut in May and August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, BANK OF CANADA, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

RBA tipped to make cuts around mid-year

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 20-Jan-16

Data from Citigroup shows that financial markets believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia is now almost certain to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in June 2016. There is a 20 per cent chance of a rate cut in February, and a 40 per cent chance of a rate cut in March. Factors such as the downturn in the crude oil price and the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy are like to influence the central bank’s monetary policy deliberations. The cash rate has remained on hold since May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CITIBANK PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Australia forecast to follow Fed on rates

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 22-Dec-15

The Australian dollar has strengthened in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates. There is growing speculation that the Reserve Bank will begin tightening monetary policy in 2016, with BT Investment Management forecasting that the cash rate will rise from two per cent to 2.5 per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank expects monetary policy to remain unchanged, while the ANZ Bank has forecast that the cash rate will be cut to 1.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

RBA’s Stevens sees hope in jobs growth

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 16-Dec-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its economic growth forecast in November 2015, but governor Glenn Stevens does not believe another downgrade is needed in the near-term. Stevens has also given indications that further interest rate cuts may not be necessary in the current monetary policy cycle, noting that the unemployment rate is well below the central bank’s expectations earlier in 2015. He adds that the downturn in commodity prices may put further downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Surprise job boom rules out rate cut

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 11-Dec-15

Official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy added 71,400 jobs in November 2015, while a total of 301,700 jobs have been created since the start of the year. The national unemployment rate has fallen to 5.8 per cent, while the unemployment rate in New South Wales has fallen to 5.2 per cent. Some 127,000 jobs have been created nationwide in the last two months, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate on hold in February 2016.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Fixed rates fall as banks chase loans

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 23-Nov-15

Data from RateCity shows that 11 Australian mortgage lenders have reduced their three-year fixed interest rates since early November 2015. Peter Arnold of RateCity notes that the majority of these lenders have passed on interest rate cuts to both owner-occupiers and property investors. Meanwhile, Jessica Darnbrough of Mortgage Choice says the number of customers opting for a fixed-interest loan fell to a four-year low of 13.9 per cent in October.

CORPORATES
RATECITY PTY LTD, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RP DATA LIMITED

$A likely to dip into the 50c range, says Macro Currency

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 13-Nov-15

Mark Farrington of Macro Currency Group says the Australian dollar remains overvalued, despite its fall in recent months. He estimates that the currency needs to fall by another 10 per cent to the $US0.50 range as the economy rebalances. Meanwhile, Farrington expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate another two times in the current monetary policy easing cycle, adding that the first cut could be in the June 2016 quarter.

CORPORATES
MACRO CURRENCY GROUP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Dollar jumps as RBA wrong-foots punters with cash rate

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 4-Nov-15

The Australian dollar was fetching $US0.7199 late in trading on 3 November 2015. The currency reached an intra-day high of $US0.7209 after the Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold. Central bank governor Glenn Stevens indicated that there may be potential for further rate cuts given the low inflation rate. Felicity Emmett of the ANZ Bank expects the cash rate to be left on hold again in December before being reduced in February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JAMIESONCOOTEBONDS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Nailing cup victor easier than RBA pick

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Original article by Jacob Greber, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 3-Nov-15

It is difficult to guess whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide to cut the official interest rate when the board of the central bank meets on 3 November 2015. Economists from Australia’s four big banks believe that the cash rate will remain unchanged at two per cent. Some analysts expect a cut, stressing the fact that headline inflation was only at 1.5 per cent in the September quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Westpac’s Evans says no rate cut in sight

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 30-Oct-15

HSBC’s Paul Bloxham expects a reduction in Australia’s cash rate in either November or December 2015, in the wake of lower-than-expected inflation data in the September quarter. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans in turn still believes that the cash rate will remain unchanged in November, noting that the Reserve Bank has ignored one-off falls in the inflation rate in the past. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura expects the cash rate to remain on hold until February.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED