INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA

Rate pause could lure home buyers back

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 20-Mar-24

Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday is likely to boost the confidence of prospective home buyers. He notes that there has tended to be a close relationship between consumer sentiment and the volume of home sales. Meanwhile, SQM Research MD Louis Christopher expects mortgage stress to continue to rise while interest rates remain high, while the number of distressed listings is also likely to rise.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA keeps rate rise in reserve

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 20-Mar-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. However, the RBA appears to have adopted a more neutral monetary policy stance in the statement it released after the two-day board meeting. It stated that the board is "not ruling anything in or out" with regard to the next interest rate move; in contrast, the RBA stated in February that a further increase in interest rates "cannot be ruled out". Financial markets have now fully priced in a 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate in September, as well as a strong chance of another rate cut in December.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Borrowers on slow march to mortgage cliff amid rollover

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 19-Mar-24

The Commonwealth Bank’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird notes that the worst fears about the so-called ‘mortgage cliff’ have not eventuated. However, he adds that the shift from fixed to variable-rate home loans has had an impact on many households’ spending. Meanwhile, it is estimated that more than 250,000 households will transition to variable-rate home loans over the next 18 months; their mortgage repayments are set to rise sharply, even if the Reserve Bank does not increase the cash rate again.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

House prices could jump 5pc: McGrath

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Original article by Campbell Kwan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 & 34 : 20-Feb-24

Real estate group McGrath Limited has posted a 2023-24 interim statutory profit of $7.5m and underlying EBITDA of $4.8m. Meanwhile, CEO John McGrath says the prospect of interest rate cuts later in 2024 may boost prices at the lower end of Australia’s housing market by up to five per cent. He adds that interest rate rises have seen house prices in this segment of the market fall by around five per cent over the last 12 months. However, McGrath says prospective buyers of homes priced below $1m are likely to remain cautious about returning to the property market until interest rate cuts actually occur.

CORPORATES
McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA

Unemployment jumps to two-year high

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 16-Feb-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s official unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent in January, up from 3.9 per cent in December. The economy added just 500 jobs in January, and Bjorn Jarvis from the ABS says seasonal factors may have contributed to the larger-than-expected increase in the jobless rate. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although the labour market has been weakening, it remains very strong. Capital Economics economist Abhijit Surya in turn says the Reserve Bank is now likely to bring forward the first interest rate cut to around August rather than November.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Cooling inflation, stable rates may encourage buyers

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 30 : 7-Feb-24

Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday could prompt an upturn in house buying activity. He notes that house prices remain below their peaks in Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin and the ACT; Lawless says that some buyers may capitalise on this to buy into the market before interest rates fall. Judo Bank’s chief economic adviser Warren Hogan says the rental housing market is still a major concern, while SQM Research MD Louis Christopher warns that rising rents could put upward pressure on inflation.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JUDO BANK PTY LTD, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

‘Job is not done’, says RBA boss

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Feb-24

Investors have priced in a 41 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by June, compared with 53 per cent before the central bank left rates on hold at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. RBA governor Michele Bullock says that while inflation fell to 4.1 per cent in the year to December, it remains too high for the central bank to begin easing monetary policy. She adds that the RBA will not begin doing so until it is confident inflation that will sustainably return to the target range of 2-3 per cent target; it does not expect this to happen until late 2025. Bullock also cautioned that further interest rate increases cannot be ruled out.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA rate cuts a double-edged sword for first-home buyers

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 19 : 6-Feb-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. Sally Tindall of RateCity says the key focus will be on whether the central bank removes its tightening bias. Meanwhile, money markets now expect the RBA to reduce the cash rate by 25 per cent in both August and November. Ray White’s chief economist Nerida Conisbee notes that interest rate cuts will increase the borrowing power of first home buyers, but can also be expected to further boost house prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RATECITY PTY LTD, RAY WHITE GROUP

Investors caution markets still too bullish on rates

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 24-Jan-24

Financial markets have scaled back their expectations of interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2024; the RBA is now expected to reduce the cash rate by 37 basis points over the year, compared with expectations of a 55 basis point cut earlier in January. Tim Van Klaveren of UBS expects two rate cuts in 2024, while Matt Wacher from Morningstar anticipates three rate cuts in response to an economy that he expects to slow quickly. Meanwhile, financial markets have now fully priced in a US interest rate cut in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD

Economists warn of unintended fallout from RBA overhaul

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 17-Jan-24

Economists polled by The Australian Financial Review have expressed some reservations with regard to how the Reserve Bank will communicate monetary policy decisions under its new structure. The RBA’s mew Monetary Policy Board will be responsible for setting interest rates; it will publish details of how the board voted on rate decisions, but not the voting records of each board member. Economists contend amongst other things that not diclosing these votes could potentially give rise to speculation of dissension amongst board members when this does not exist.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA