INTEREST RATES – UNITED STATES

ASX stocks to fire as Fed kicks off cuts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 17-Sep-25

Bond traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week. They are expect at least another four rate cuts over the next year, although David Bassanese from BetaShares and Sebastian Mullins from Schroders contend that the central bank will be less aggressive in reducing monetary policy. Meanwhile, Australian stocks are widely tipped to rally if the Federal Reserve does reduce the cast rate; Jun Bei Liu from Ten Cap says James Hardie Industries stands to benefit the most, given its exposure to the US housing market.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX, TEN CAP INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Rate cuts still on the way after tariff pause

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 14-May-25

IFM Investors’ chief economist Alex Joiner has described the 90-day tariff pause agreed to by the US and China as a "small step forward". However, he cautions that the significant tariffs that remain in place during the temporary truce in the trade war will still be a major challenge for US households, businesses and the broader economy. Meanwhile, financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve to reduce official interest rates by 25 basis points in September; the Reserve Bank of Australia is in turn tipped to cut the cash rate three times before the end of 2025, by 85 basis points in total.

CORPORATES
IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, UMOW LAI & ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cut hopes dashed by US data

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 12-Apr-24

Financial markets have now priced in a 20 per cent chance that the US Federal Reserve will reduce the cash rate in June, compared with 58 per cent prior to the release of the latest inflation data. The figures showed that the inflation rate remains well above the central bank’s target of two per cent; core inflation rose by 0.4 per cent in March and 3.8 per cent in the year to March. Financial markets now expect just one rate cut in 2024. The US inflation data has also prompted Australian investors to scale back their expectations regarding the timing of monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Doubt builds RBA will cut rates in 2024

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 9-Apr-24

Financial markets are now pricing in two interest rate cuts in the US during 2024, while the Federal Reserve has previously flagged the likelihood of three rate cuts. The latest US non-farm payrolls data has strengthened the case for a rate cut to be delayed until later in the year, with the economy adding a higher-than-expected 303,000 jobs in March. There are heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will also delay the timing of its first rate rise, with growing speculation that the central bank will leave the cash rate on hold until 2025.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Fed says rates will stay near zero until 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Nick Timiraos
The Australian – Page: 24 : 18-Sep-20

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting, with all 17 central bank officials indicating that they expect interest rates to remain at a record low until at least the end of 2021. In addition, 13 of the Federal Reserve officials have indicated that interest rates are likely to remain at close to zero until the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the central bank officials now expect the US unemployment rate to average about 7-8 per cent in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Fed to hold interest rates near zero at least till 2022

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Nick Timiraos
The Australian – Page: 17 : 12-Jun-20

The US Federal Reserve has left interest rates on hold after its latest two-day policy meeting, and chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that a rate rise will not be on the agenda for some time. Federal Reserve officials unanimously agreed that the cash rate is likely to remain at around zero in 2021, and the majority expect no change in monetary policy during 2022. Meanwhile, the central bank intends to continue purchasing Treasurys and mortgage securities at the current rate, while Powell says the US labour market is unlikely to rebound from the coronavirus quickly, despite recent data showing that the economy added 2.5 million jobs in May.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

World hunkers down for fight against virus

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 29 : 6-Mar-20

Investors have responded positively to the announcement of economic stimulus measures in Australia and the US in response to the coronavirus. Wall Street and sharemarkets across the Asia-Pacific region rallied on 5 March, while the yield on 10-year Australian government bonds rose six basis points to 0.78 per cent. Meanwhile, financial markets expect further official interest rate cuts in both Australia and the US in coming months.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, TAIEX INDEX

US rates likely to stay on hold, Fed indicates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Dean
The Australian – Page: 14 : 6-Jan-20

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting show that the US central bank expects official interest rates to remain unchanged for some time, although this is likely to depend on the economic outlook. Some Federal Reserve officials expressed concern that an extended low interest rate environment may encourage ‘excessive risk-taking’. Meanwhile, former Federal Reserve chairman contends that the central bank has options other than quantitative easing and forward guidance to stimulate the economy in the event of a downturn.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Recovery in doubt as Aussie dollar surges

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 1-Nov-19

The Australian dollar reached a three-month high of $US0.693 in local trading on 31 October, in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s third interest rate cut in 2019. Financial markets have in turn downgraded the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia reducing the cash rate again before the end of the year. The Australian dollar gained 3.3 per cent in October, including a gain of 1.6 per cent in the last five trading sessions. RBA board member Ian Harper argues that a strong currency is not desirable at present, given weak economic growth and less than full employment.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Global risks high, but Fed will avert recession

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 23-Oct-19

Northern Trust’s chief economist Carl Tannenbaum expects the US Federal Reserve to reduce official interest rates in late October. Financial markets anticipate more monetary policy easing, but Tannenbaum says the Federal Reserve will put further rate cuts on hold. He is also confident that interest rate cuts will enable the US economy from going into recession. Tannenbaum has also questioned whether the Australian government should still be focusing on returning the Budget to surplus in an environment of low interest rates and a slowing Chinese economy.

CORPORATES
NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT