INTEREST RATES – UNITED STATES

Wave of uncertainty wipes $30bn

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 30 : 10-Nov-16

The Australian dollar and the domestic sharemarket fell sharply on 9 November 2016, in response to the election of US presidential candidate Donald Trump. The S&P/ASX 200 reached an intra-day low of 5,052.1 before closing down 1.9 per cent at 5156.6. In the US, S&P 500 futures initially fell by more than five per cent, which resulted in a temporary suspension of trading. Some analysts expect "risk-off" trading to be sustained for some time, while the prospect of an interest rate rise in the US in December appears to have diminished. The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.758 in local trading, and Westpac’s Robert Rennie says it could fall below $US0.74 in the near-term.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

$A heading to heights of US90c

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 19-Oct-16

Jason Thomas of The Carlyle Group is bullish about the outlook for the Australian dollar. The director of research forecasts that the US dollar will fall by 8-15 per cent over the next five years, as US interest rates are unlikely to rise as quickly as anticipated. Thomas says this in turn will boost the value of the Australian dollar, which could rise to around $US0.85 over the next five years. He adds that the currency could potentially test the $US0.90 level.

CORPORATES
THE CARLYLE GROUP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX

Investors warned not to expect smooth ride

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 23-Sep-16

Australian equity strategists are cautious about the near-term outlook for the domestic bourse, with most still expecting the S&P/ASX 200 to be trading at around the 5,500-point level at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Tony Brennan of Citigroup forecasts that the benchmark index will top 5,750 points by mid-2017. With the US Federal Reserve opting to leave interest rates on hold in September, David Cassidy of UBS says the presidential election could influence the timing of the next interest rate move.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN

Formidable barriers mean Fed’s rate rise is no-go next week

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 16-Sep-16

Financial market traders have priced in a 15 per cent chance that the Federal Reserve will increase US interest rates in September 2016. Rates have increased just twice in the past when the odds of a rise have been 20 per cent or less. Unlike at present, inflation was a key issue on both occasions. Meanwhile, opinion is divided among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the timing of a rate rise, while the central bank is unlikely to increase the cash rate prior to the presidential election in November.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

Global fundies not counting on a crash

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Vesna Poljak, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 22 : 15-Sep-16

Investors have been warned to expect further volatility in equity markets until the US Federal Reserve resumes increasing interest rates. Many global fund managers anticipate that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy soon, although they generally expect rates to rise gradually. The recent equities sell-down has boosted government bond yields, and there is growing concern that the bond market’s long bull run may be nearing its end.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, K2 ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KAM, PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX PTM

Fund managers to Fed: it’s time to raise rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 14-Sep-16

Financial markets have priced in a 22 per cent chance that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in September 2016, while a December increase is rated a 57 per cent chance. PM Capital’s Uday Cheruvu expects the US central bank to tighten monetary policy at some point, noting that there are sufficient grounds for a rate rise. Meanwhile, Randal Jenneke of T. Rowe Price says Australian yield stocks – which bore the brunt of bearish sentiment on 12 September – are likely to fall further.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, BANK OF ENGLAND

Central bank fears spook markets

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber, Sally Rose, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 12-Sep-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index has shed 4.4 per cent since the start of August 2016, and a 2.5 per cent downturn in the S&P 500 is expected to push the local market lower on 12 September. The US market was sold down after a Federal Reserve official suggested that the strength of the US economy could warrant an interest rate cut in the near-term. This prompted renewed support for the US dollar and a sharp rise in bond yields. Meanwhile, Nick Bishop of Aberdeen Asset Management expects an upturn in global financial market volatility in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Demand rally seen as strong enough to withstand US rate rise

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 7-Sep-16

Cadence Capital’s Karl Siegling argues that a rise in US interest rates is likely to have only a short-term impact on the recent rebound in commodity prices. James Gerrish of Shaw & Partners notes that while the gold price is likely to be the most affected by a rate rise, the iron ore price is primarily influenced by supply and demand considerations. Siegling adds that base metal producers will be the hardest hit by a rise in US interest rates.

CORPORATES
CADENCE CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX CDT, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MACQUARIE WEALTH MANAGEMENT, INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO

Dollar hit by prospects of US interest rate hike

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 32 : 30-Aug-16

The Australian dollar fell to a four-week low in local trading on 29 August 2016, at around the $US0.7525 level. The currency was sold down amid indications that the Federal Reserve could increase US interest rates at least once before the end of the year, and potentially in September. A downturn in the spot price of iron ore also weighed on support for the commodity currency, which peaked at $US0.7756 earlier in the month. UBS forecasts that the dollar will test the $US0.70 level by the end of the year.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, QIC LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Post-Brexit rally tipped to continue

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 2-Aug-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 6.3 per cent in July 2016, and it has risen by 11 per cent since falling sharply after the UK voted to leave the European Union. The benchmark index is likely to continue to perform well in August, regardless of whether the Reserve Bank decides to reduce the cash rate. The bourse is benefiting from expectations that interest rates in Australia and overseas will remain low for some time. The latest GDP data in the US has dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in 2016.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN