INTEREST RATES

Rate cuts push investors into risky territory

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 10-Jul-19

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 recorded its third-biggest loss for 2019 on 8 July, after gaining two per cent in the previous week and about 25 per cent in the last six months. The rally in global sharemarkets during 2019 has been driven by central banks’ shift towards a monetary policy easing bias. The downturn in official interest rates is prompting more investors to embrace higher-risk asset classes, which in turn can increase market risk.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Risks build as central banks push on a string

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Jun-19

There is a growing view that further monetary policy easing will do little to stimulate economic growth. Expectations of further interest rate cuts have seen Australia’s All Ordinaries Index gain 18 per cent so far in 2019. Matthew Brooks of Macquarie Group notes that the Australian sharemarket rose by an average of 12 per cent after the first interest rate cut in eight of the 11 easing cycles since 1971, while the S&P 500 was up at least 10 per cent a year. The other three easing cycles coincided with recessions.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Low rates may trigger shock

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 3 : 6-Jul-18

Keeping official interest rates low for too long could have dire consequences, according to the Bank for International Settlements’ Committee on the Global Financial System. The committee warns that it could lead to a rise in inflation, which in turn would force central banks to hike up interest rates, resulting in a global recession. Under one scenario put forward by the committee, inflation could rise by two per cent, forcing central banks to lift short-term interest rates by 300 basis points. In Australia, this would result in economic growth falling to 0.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks watch as capital city unit crisis unfolds

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 21 : 31-Jan-18

The yield on US 10-year government bonds peaked at 2.73 per cent in late January, and the policies of President Donald Trump could see yields rise further. This would have major implications for Australia’s banks, which source 30-40 per cent of their funding from offshore. Australian banks are in turn heavily exposed to the residential and retail property markets, and a sharp rise in global interest rates would put downward pressure on asset values in these sectors. This would be of particular concern for the inner city apartment markets in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, where there are already fears of an oversupply.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

US inflation stirs global rate rise bets

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 27 : 15-Jan-18

Thierry Albert Wizman of Macquarie Group notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia is the only major central bank among developed countries that has not flagged a rise in official interest rates. The Bank of Canada is widely tipped to tighten monetary policy again in mid-January, while the general consensus of economists is that US interest rates will rise in March. Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve president William Dudley recently warned that factors such as the low unemployment rate in the US and the Trump administration’s tax cuts could potentially see the US economy "overheat".

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK, BANK OF CANADA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, FIS GROUP, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, LEHMAN BROTHERS INCORPORATED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Investors face nervous wait ahead of rate calls

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 19-Sep-16

The upcoming monetary policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will be a focus for Australian investors in the week beginning 19 September 2016. Futures markets have priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Federal Reserve will increase the cash rate, and Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics says a rate rise in December is more likely. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will also be released, and Philip Lowe will appear before Parliament for the first time in his new role of RBA governor.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

RBS tells investors to ‘sell everything’

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Original article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 13-Jan-16

Royal Bank of Scotland is extremely bearish about the outlook for global financial markets in 2016, advising investors to offload all holdings except for "quality bonds". The bank has forecast that sharemarkets in the US and Europe could fall by 10-20 per cent, while global bond yields will also decline sharply and the US Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, RBS says the price of Brent crude oil could potentially test $US16 per barrel. Originally published in "The Telegraph".

CORPORATES
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC, FTSE 100 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF ENGLAND, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UBS AG