INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES

Decade of spending discipline

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Dec-25

Official data shows that total borrowing by governments across Australia topped $42bn in the September quarter, which is about 40 per cent higher year-on-year. Meanwhile, the OECD has warned that the federal and state governments will require "fiscal discipline and consolidation" in order to stabilise public debt at about current levels. The Paris-based organisation adds that this fiscal discipline will most likely be needed beyond the current decade, as governments are facing spending pressures linked to factors such as the nation’s ageing population, defence and the transition to net-zero emissions. The OECD has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for Australia in 2026 from 2.2 per cent to 2.3 per cent.

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

IMF upgrades Australian growth forecasts, despite tariffs uncertainty

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Original article by Thomas Morgan
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 30-Jul-25

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its economic growth forecast for Australia in 2025 to 1.8 per cent; its previous forecast issued in April was for GDP growth of 1.6 per cent in the current calendar year. The growth outlook for Australian in 2026 has in turn been upgraded from 2.1 per cent to 2.2 per cent. The IMF has also increased its growth forecasts for the global economy in both 2025 and 2026, although it has cautioned that risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

OECD trims Australian economic growth expectations

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: Online : 4-Jun-25

The OECD now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.8 per cent in 2025, compared with its previous forecast of 1.9 per cent. However, its growth forecast for 2026 has been upgraded from 1.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent. The Paris-based organisation also expects global economic growth to slow in both 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, Australia’s official GDP data for the March quarter will be released today, and economists from the nation’s four major banks have downgraded their forecasts for economic growth during the period; Westpac is the most bearish, warning of a small risk of negative growth.

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Forecast for Australian growth cut

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 23-Apr-25

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded Australia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to just 1.6 per cent; its previous forecast issued in January was for GDP growth of 2.1 per cent in the current calendar year. Both the Treasury and the Reserve Bank had also previously forecast economist growth of at least two per cent, although this was before the global turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report also forecasts global growth of just 2.8 per cent this year.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

We will comply with international law on Netanyahu arrest: Wong

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Original article by Matthew Knott
The Age – Page: Online : 26-Nov-24

Foreign Minister Penny Wong told the Senate on Monday that the federal government will ‘comply with international law’ when it comes to the possible arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he decides to travel to Australia. Her comments come after the International Criminal Court last week issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, former Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas leader Ibrahim al-Masri for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict. The government has declined to denounce the warrants, further straining its relations with Israel, while the Coalition has attacked the government for not adopting a similar view to US President Joe Biden, who has labelled the ICC’s move as "outrageous".

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT

IMF inflation warning: World goes low as we stay high

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Oct-24

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report forecasts that Australia and Slovakia will be the only two advanced economies with headline inflation above three per cent by the end of 2025. The IMF expects Australia’s inflation rate to rise to 3.6 per cent by December 2025, as federal and state government cost-of-living relief is wound back. The IMF had previously forecast in April that Australia’s inflation rate would fall to 2.8 per cent in 2025. While some economists do not expect the Reserve Bank to begin reducing the cash rate until the second half of 2025, the IMF forecasts that other central banks will aggressively ease monetary policy. Meanwhile, the IMF now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2024, compared with its April forecast of 1.5 per cent growth.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australian real wage growth among worst in OECD

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Original article by Rachel Clun
The Age – Page: Online : 10-Jul-24

A report from the OECD has concluded that real wages in Australia are still 4.8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. The Paris-based organisation’s latest employment outlook also shows that Australia is one of 16 member countries whose real incomes have fallen since the end of 2019. The report notes that although real wages have risen in 2024 for the first time in nearly three years, Australian households are still under pressure due to the cost-of-living crisis. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the report shows that the federal government’s policies to increase real wages are making a "meaningful difference".

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

‘Reckless’: Penny Wong condemns Peter Dutton’s threats to cut ties with International Criminal Court

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Original article by Daniel Hurst
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 4-Jun-24

Foreign Minister Penny Wong has used a Senate estimates hearing to attack Opposition leader Peter Dutton over what she claims is his "reckless" threat to sever Australia’s ties with the International Criminal Court, claiming it would make it harder for Australia to insist that China follow international law. Wong also used the hearing to attack the Greens for "participating in protests which have become violent and aggressive"; the Greens later issued a statement in which it stated that the party supported "peaceful protests", and that Wong’s assertions were incorrect.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT

IMF warns of stalling progress to reduce inflation

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 17-Apr-24

The International Monetary Fund now expects global economic growth of 3.2 per cent in both 2024 and 2025. However, the IMF notes that the outlook remains uncertain due to factors such as China’s embattled property sector and the risk that wars in Europe and the Middle East will escalate. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report also notes that the global economy is still "remarkably resilient", and it is optimistic that central banks will be able to achieve a soft landing for economies. The IMF has forecast economic growth of 1.5 per cent for Australia in 2024, and two per cent next year.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Don’t get your hopes up on rates cut: OECD

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Feb-24

The OECD has forecast that Australia’s inflation rate will fall to 3.5 per cent by mid-2024 and just 2.75 per cent by mid-2025. The Paris-based organisation is also upbeat about inflation globally, forecasting that inflation will be in line with central bank objectives in most Group of 20 countries by the end of 2025. However, the OECD has also cautioned central banks against easing monetary policy too quickly in response to the downturn in inflation. Meanwhile, Challenger Limited’s chief economist Jonathan Kearns has downplayed the prospects of multiple interest rate cuts in Australia during 2024; he says a single rate cut late in the year is most likely.

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF