IRON ORE – PRICES

US, China trade tensions driving iron ore price surge: Rio Tinto

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 15-Oct-25

Data from S&P Global Platts shows that the price of iron ore with 62 per cent iron content has risen to its highest level since 21 February; the price of benchmark iron ore has also risen by 18 per cent since 25 June. Rio Tinto says demand for iron ore is holding up despite the trade tensions between the US and China. Rio Tinto shipped 84.3 million tonnes of Pilbara iron ore in the September quarter, putting it back on track to achieve its full-year target of 323 million tonnes following storm disruptions in early 2025; however, Rio Tinto will need to ship 88 million tonnes in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, S&P GLOBAL PLATTS

Supply glut could slash iron ore price

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 21-Jan-25

The iron ore price recently peaked at over $US104 per tonne, in response to data showing that there has been strong growth in China’s stockpiles of the steel input. Goldman Sachs expects a further sharp increase in stockpiles at Chinese ports over the next two years. The firm says this will weigh on the iron ore price, forecasting that it will fall to $US95/tonne this year and $US90 in 2026. Westpac is more bearish, forecasting that iron ore could potentially fall to around $US70 in 2025 as Rio Tinto boosts global supply.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

CBA warns of $US80 iron ore price as China crisis deepens

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 18-Sep-24

Iron ore futures were trading at around $US92.50 per tonne on Tuesday, after falling below $US90 last week. The iron ore price has shed about 20 per cent since July, amid a rising global surplus of the steel input and growing concerns about the outlook for China’s property sector. Goldman Sachs now expects the iron ore price to test the $US85/tonne level in the December quarter, compared with its previous forecast of $US100. Meanwhile, Vivak Dhar from the Commonwealth Bank says the iron ore price could potentially fall to around $US80/tonne in the near-term.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Iron ore drops below $US90 in China’s contagion

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 10-Sep-24

The price of iron fell below $US90 per tonne on Monday; the steel input had not previously tested this level since November 2022, and it followed a fall of nearly 10 per cent in the previous week. Other commodities have also fallen sharply in recent times, including copper and Brent crude oil. The sell-off has been prompted by concerns about the outlook for the Chinese economy, and whether the official annual growth target of five per cent can be achieved. Damien Boey from Barrenjoey notes that financial markets are concerned that an economic slowdown in China could flow through to other countries.

CORPORATES
BARRENJOEY CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD

Steel carnage to sink iron ore below $US90

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 13-Aug-24

The iron ore price is now about 30 per cent below its January peak, although the steel input is still trading at around $US100 per tonne. However, Robert Rennie of Westpac contends that problems within the steel industry means that the iron ore price should be around the mid-to late-$US80 level at present. He says it is only a matter of time before the "absolute carnage" in the steel industry is reflected in the iron ore price. Chinese steel mills’ margins have fallen sharply, and a MySteel survey has found that just five per cent of them were profitable last week. Further production cuts may be looming, which would dampen demand for iron ore.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED

Sagging iron ore prices weigh on local bourse

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 23 : 13-Jun-24

The iron ore price reached a two-month low of $US103.35 per tonne earlier this week, weighing on the Australian sharemarket and the nation’s largest mining companies. Vivek Dhar from the Commonwealth Bank says the downturn in the iron ore price is probably due to ongoing concerns about China’s property market, despite recent government stimulus measures. Dhar believes that the iron on price will not rise sustainably above $US110 per tonne unless the Chinese government pursues additional infrastructure stimulus measures.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

BHP braces for iron ore challengers

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 19-Mar-24

Iron ore futures briefly fell below $US100 per tonne in Singapore trading on Monday; Macquarie Equities in turn downgraded BHP’s shares from ‘outperform’ to ‘neutral’, in response to the uncertain outlook for iron ore in the medium-term. Meanwhile, BHP has used a shareholders’ briefing to warn that the iron ore market will become more competitive by the end of this decade, with production from mines in Africa set to boost global supply. However, CFO Vandita Pant said that BHP will have a competitive edge, given that it is the lowest-cost producer of iron ore. Meanwhile, CEO Mike Henry said a decision on the future of the Nickel West business is likely to be made shortly.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED

Citi tips iron ore to reach $US150 on China hopes

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 30-Jan-24

Iron ore futures traded in Singapore rose to $US136 a tonne after the People’s Bank of China announced plans to inject more liquidity into the financial system. There have also been reports that the Chinese government may consider measures to stabilise the nation’s sharemarket. Citigroup has in turn maintained its forecast for the price of iron ore to reach $US150/tonne over the next three months. The firm has also upgraded its copper price forecast to $US8,800 per tonne.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA

Iron ore tipped to hit $US130 a tonne this year

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 2-Nov-23

Citigroup says there is potential for the Chinese government to provide further support for the nation’s property sector, after policymakers recently issued an additional one trillion yuan ($217.8 billion) worth of central government bonds. The firm contends that the iron ore price could rally if China pursues further stimulus in order to "engineer" a strong start to 2024. Citi has upgraded its short-term price forecast for the steel input from $US100 per tonne to $US120/tonne, but adds that further Chinese stimulus measures could see it test the $US130/tonne level by the end of 2023.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED

Goldman steels for iron ore slide into bear market

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 9-Aug-23

Iron ore futures in Singapore have fallen to below $US99 per tonne, down from a cyclical high of $US114.95 per tonne in July. Goldman Sachs expects the decline to be sustained, forecasting that the iron ore price will fall by another 12 per cent to $US90/tonne in the second half of 2023. Nicholas Snowdon of Goldman Sachs says factors such as lower steel production in China and an increase in global iron ore supply will result in a 68 million tonne surplus of the steel input in the six months to 31 December.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED