Analysts predict iron ore prices have hit peak

Original article by Cole Latimer
The Age – Page: 25 : 24-Apr-19

UBS has forecast that the iron ore price will average $US83 per tonne in 2019, warning that the steel input’s recent high of around $US93/tonne is not sustainable. The investment bank says recent supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil are unlikely to have a long-term impact on the iron ore price, forecasting that it will fall over the next 12 months. Expectations of a lower iron ore price have also contributed to UBS’s decision to downgrade its recommendation on BHP’s shares from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’. PhillipCapital expects iron ore to average $US78/tonne in 2019.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, PHILLIP CAPITAL LIMITED, VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

UBS hikes iron ore forecasts a second time

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 29-Mar-19

Investment bank UBS now expects the price of iron ore to average $US83 per tonne in 2019, which is 12 per cent higher than its previous forecast. UBS had already increased its price forecast from $US65 per tonne to $U74 in response to the tailings dam disaster in Brazil in late January. UBS also forecasts that Australia’s three major iron ore producers will slightly reduce their full-year production guidance after their Pilbara operations were affected by a recent cyclone.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION

Surplus powered by iron ore and coal

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 19-Mar-19

Ernst & Young expects the federal Budget’s bottom line to be $9.2bn better off over the next two years than Treasury had forecast in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. The firm’s modelling of the Budget outcome is based on factors such as the price of iron ore and coal. Iron ore has averaged $US72 per tonne so far in 2018-19, compared with the MYEFO forecast of $U55/tonne. The price of metallurgical coal is also trading well above the MYEFO forecast so far in the current financial year.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Iron ore could surge upon China’s return

Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 11-Feb-19

March iron ore futures closed 3.1 per cent higher at $US92 a tonne in Singapore on 8 February. Capital Economics says the spot price of iron ore could rally on 11 February, when Chinese traders return to the market following the Lunar New Year break. The tailings dam disaster in Brazil in late January may also impact on the iron ore price. Shares in BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group have rallied in the wake of the disaster, although Vale’s share price has slumped.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, TD SECURITIES, OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED, MACQUARIE WEALTH MANAGEMENT, ARCELOR MITTAL SA, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, FASTMARKETS MB

Rio debt upgrade as iron ore rises

Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 8-Feb-19

Moody’s Investors Service has upgraded its rating on Rio Tinto’s debt from A3 to A2. The credit ratings agency has noted that Rio Tinto is better-placed to ride out periods of increased volatility in commodity prices as a result of its debt reduction strategy. The resources giant has slashed its debt from US28.5bn in 2013 to just $US12.5bn. Meanwhile, the iron ore price has risen to almost $US90 per tonne in the wake of the latest tailings dam disaster in Brazil, and some analysts say it could test $US100.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, VALE SA

Brazilian closures test iron restraint

Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 27 : 7-Feb-19

UBS analysts are among those to have forecast an iron ore surplus in 2019. However, this is in doubt after a Brazilian court ordered Vale to put production at its Brucutu iron ore mine on hold in the wake of the tailings dam disaster at its Feijao mine. Vale has responded by declaring force majeure over its iron ore shipments. Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank says the iron ore price could potentially rise above $US100 per tonne following the production halt at Brucutu, whose annual output is 30 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
VALE SA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Miners soar as gold and iron ore prices rise

Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 24 : 6-Feb-19

Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners notes that Australian mining stocks have gained 17 per cent since 20 December. Shares in Fortescue Metals Group, BHP and Rio Tinto rallied on 5 February, after the spot price of iron ore for delivery to the port of Qingdao in China rose above $US81 per tonne. Analysts note that the market’s response to the latest iron ore tailings dam disaster in Brazil has been markedly different to the Samarco tragedy in 2015, when commodity prices had already been retreating.

CORPORATES
SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD

Iron ore surge predicted to be temporary

Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 4-Feb-19

The spot price of iron ore rose above $US85 per tonne in the wake of the latest tailings dam disaster in Brazil. Goldman Sachs and Fitch Ratings are among the firms that have upgraded their iron ore price forecasts, and Capital Economics has suggested that it could peak at around $US100 per tonne. Meanwhile, Liberum Research still expects the iron ore price to retreat to $US50/tonne in 2019 and around $US40/tonne in 2020.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, LIBERUM RESEARCH, VALE SA, FASTMARKETS MB

China demand to drive earnings: Fortescue

Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 24 : 1-Feb-19

Fortescue Metals Group has advised that its iron ore shipments for the December 2018 quarter totalled 42.5 million tonnes, an increase of five per cent year-on-year. The result included its first shipments of the higher-grade West Pilbara Fines. Meanwhile, Fortescue expects its earnings to be boosted by renewed demand for lower-grade iron ore among Chinese steel mills. The pure-play miner also says it is too soon to determine the likely impact of the latest tailings dam collapse in Brazil on the iron ore price.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA

Dam disaster fuels surge in iron ore price

Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 31-Jan-19

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its 2019 forecast for iron ore after the price of the steel input rose 4.4 per cent to $US78.50 ($109) a tonne in response to another tailings dam disaster in Brazil. Goldman Sachs now has a price forecast of $US65 per tonne, compared with $US60 previously. The federal government’s mid-year budget update had forecast that the iron ore price would average $US55 per tonne in 2019. Vale has indicated that its annual iron ore production could be cut by up to 40 million tonnes due to the dam collapse. This would equate to about 10 per cent of its annual output.

CORPORATES
VALE SA, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TUV SUD