Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 18-Dec-19
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has not ruled out bringing forward the next stage of the federal government’s income tax cuts package, which is due to take effect in mid-2022. However, sources have indicated that this is unlikely given the reduction in projected Budget surpluses over the next four years. Meanwhile, Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics argues that bringing forward the second stage of the tax cuts to 2020-21 would require the iron ore price to remain about $US15 per tonne higher throughout that financial year.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, SOUTH AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE
Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 16-Dec-19
Fortescue Metals Group CEO Elizabeth Gaines is upbeat about the outlook for the iron ore price in 2020. She says the benchmark price will continue to benefit from inventory restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year, while she does not expect the price gap between benchmark iron ore and the lower-grade ore produced by Fortescue to widen much. Fortescue received 89 per cent of the benchmark price during the September 2019 quarter, after the gap had widened significantly in mid-2018.
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG
Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 4-Oct-19
Official figures show that Australia recorded a trade surplus of $5.9bn in August, compared with a record $8bn in June. The total value of exports of goods and services fell by $1.4bn in August, and imports fell by $137m. A downturn in the price of iron and coal was the major contributor to the lower trade surplus. The value of iron ore exports declined by 12 per cent during the month, with the price of the steel input falling from a peak of $US120 per tonne to $US91. However, iron ore export volumes increased by 15 per cent.
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB
Original article by Robert Guy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 2-Oct-19
Credit Suisse has scaled back its benchmark iron ore price forecasts for the next three years, due to expectations that Chinese steel production will peak in 2019. The firm now expects iron ore to fetch $US80 a tonne in 2020, which is six per cent lower than its previous guidance. Its price forecast for 2021 has been cut by 13 per cent to $US65/tonne, while the iron ore price is now expected to average $US60 a tonne in 2022. Credit Suisse has also reduced its share price targets for BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, while its rating on the latter has been downgraded from ‘neutral’ to ‘underperform’.
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD
Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 25 : 31-Jul-19
Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service expects that supply constraints will ensure that the price of iron ore remains high during the rest of 2019 and in 2020. Moody’s has cited factors such as the impact of a tailings dam collapse in Brazil in January and Cyclone Veronica in Western Australia for its revised forecast. The firm had previously expected the iron ore market to be in surplus in 2019.
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA
Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 27 : 11-Jul-19
Some analysts have forecast a further pullback in the iron ore price, which has retreated from its recent peak of around $US126 per tonne. National Australia Bank now expects the price of the steel input to average $US92/tonne during 2019 and $US74 in 2020. Meanwhile, Macquarie has indicated that the downturn in iron ore inventories at Chinese ports suggests that it will trade in the $US90s in the near-term.
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION, VALE SA, BAOWU GROUP
Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 20 : 9-Jul-19
The price of iron ore for delivery to China firmed on 8 July, after falling sharply in the previous week in response to calls for Chinese government intervention. Meanwhile, Ord Minnett expects the benchmark price of iron ore to remain high for the remainder of 2019, before averaging $US87 per tonne in 2020. The firm also notes that an increase in steel production has seen iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports decline for 12 consecutive weeks. Ord Minnett has increased its Chinese steel production forecast for 2019 by seven per cent year-on-year, to 992 million tonnes.
ORD MINNETT GROUP LIMITED, CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION, CHINA. NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM COMMISSION, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO
Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 8-Jul-19
The price of iron ore for delivery to China recently peaked at $US126 per tonne. However, the iron ore price retreated on 5 July after the Chinese government indicated that it could intervene after the nation’s steel mills claimed that futures traders are manipulating the iron ore market. The China Iron & Steel Association’s vice-president Qu Xiuli is said to have indicated that the government intends to address ‘irregularities’ that have been identified by the nation’s steel makers. The reports prompted a sharp fall in the share prices of BHP and Rio Tinto.
CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE
Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 28 : 4-Jul-19
The price of iron ore from the Pilbara peaked at $US185 per tonne in 2011, when the Australian dollar was at parity with its US counterpart. The headline price of Pilbara iron ore is now trading at almost $US125 a tonne, which equates to a relative price of nearly $US180 a tonne when a much lower exchange rate is taken into account. Macquarie says the spot price of iron ore may have further to run, given that stockpiles at Chinese ports are continuing to decline. Meanwhile, BHP and Fortescue Metals Group are likely to exceed their revised guidance for 2018-19 iron ore export volumes after strong performances in June.
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, ATLAS IRON LIMITED, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, VALE SA
Original article by Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 3-Jul-19
Shares in Australia’s three major iron ore producers rallied on 2 July after the price of the steel input rose above $US120 per tonne. Factors such as supply constraints and record Chinese demand for steel have been key drivers of the iron ore price in 2019. However, some market watchers believe that the current price of iron ore cannot be sustained, given the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy. Fortescue Metals Group’s shares have gained 139 per cent so far in 2019, while BHP and Rio Tinto have gained 28 per cent and 41 per cent respectively.
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE, THE CHAMBER OF MINERALS AND ENERGY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED