Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 25-May-21
The price of iron ore futures fell on 24 May after Chinese authorities announced plans to crack down on commodity price speculation by domestic traders and firms. The crackdown is also seen as an attempt to curb inflation, with China’s producer price index having risen 6.8 per cent year-on-year in April, compared to 4.4 per cent growth recorded in March. Traders expect the clampdown on commodity price speculation will impact on futures trading, but it is not expected to undermine strong demand for iron ore, which is being driven by "tight supply". The share prices of Australian iron ore producers also fell sharply.
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP
Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 16 : 21-Apr-21
Rio Tinto’s quarterly production report shows that its iron ore exports from the Pilbara totalled 77.79 million tonnes in the first three months of 2021, an increase of seven per cent year-on-year. Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners expects Rio Tinto to post an underlying profit of $US17.69bn ($22.7bn) for calendar 2021, eclipsing its record profit of $US15.5bn in 2011. The strength of the iron ore price during the March quarter has boosted the profits of Australia’s five biggest producers of the steel input. The iron ore price recently reached its highest level in more than nine years.
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED
Original article by Lachlan Moffet Gray
The Australian – Page: 16 : 6-Apr-21
UBS expects a looming increase in global iron ore supply to result in the price of the steel input falling below $US100 per tonne in the December 2021 quarter. The iron price peaked at more than $US170 per tonne earlier in the year, but UBS says it is reaching an ‘inflection point’. The firm notes that iron ore shipments from Brazil are increasing, while inventories at Chinese ports are increasing. UBS has reduced its share price targets for Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue Metals Group; the firm has also downgraded its recommendation on the latter two from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’.
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD
Original article by Sarah Turner, Jenny Wiggins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 18-Jan-21
The spot price of iron ore peaked at $US172.36 a tonne during the week ended 15 January. Milford Asset Management’s William Curtayne says earnings forecasts for Australia’s major iron ore producers will need to be significantly upgraded if the price of the steel input remains at around $US165/tonne. Jason Teh of Vertium Asset Management also anticipates strong growth in dividend payouts at BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, as well as the potential for special dividends and share buybacks. The surging price of iron ore will also boost federal government revenue.
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MILFORD ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, VERTIUM ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD
Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 24-Dec-20
The spot price of iron ore fell by more than eight per cent in recent days, but Westpac is bullish about the outlook for the steel input in 2021. Justin Smirk of Westpac says iron ore inventories at Chinese ports remain at cyclical lows compared to steel production and imports, while the price of benchmark iron ore is trading at a significant premium to domestic Chinese iron ore. Westpac now expects iron ore to be fetching $US130 per tonne in March, compared with its previous forecast of $US105/tonne.
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC
Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 16-Dec-20
Shares in Australia’s major iron producers retreated on 15 December in response to the China Iron & Steel Association’s call for regulatory intervention to address the rising iron ore price. However, resources analysts expect the iron ore price to remain high in the near-term, due to continued strong demand for steel in China. Lyndon Fagan of JP Morgan expects the benchmark price to average about $US140 a tonne in the March 2021 quarter and $US126 a tonne for the calendar year.
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 14-Dec-20
The federal government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook will reflect the surge in the price of iron ore since it handed down the Budget just two months ago. Its forecasts were based on an iron ore price of just $US55 per tonne free-on-board; the steel input is currently fetching around $US152 per tonne free-on-board, and the spot price has reached a seven-year high. Meanwhile, Deloitte Access Economics now expects 2020-21 GDP to be $33bn higher than had been forecast in the Budget, while the firm says the underlying cash deficit could be up to $3bn better than had been expected in October.
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD
Original article by Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 4 : 24-Jul-20
Finance Minister Mathias Cormann says the federal government has maintained "cautious and conservative assumptions" regarding the outlook for the iron ore price. The steel input is trading at around $US110 per tonne, but the government now expects it to be fetching $US55 a tonne by the end of 2020. It had forecast in December that the iron ore price would fall to $US55 by the end of June. Cormann stresses that the resources sector has been a major contributor to the domestic economy’s resilience during the coronavirus pandemic.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE
Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 21 : 9-Jun-20
The rally in the price of iron ore to more than $US100 a tonne will boost federal government revenue by about $2.3bn. The 2019-20 Budget forecasts were based on the iron ore price averaging about $US62 when shipping costs are included, but it is currently averaging more than $80 a tonne. Australia’s export revenue from iron ore is set to top $100bn in 2019-20, eclipsing the previous annual record of $76bn in 2018-19. Meanwhile, shares in Australia’s three major iron ore producers have rallied since the end of March, and investors are set to receive big dividend payouts for the financial year.
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG
Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 22-May-20
Adrian Prendergast of Morgans Financial says continued strong demand from China could see the iron ore price rise above $US120 a tonne. Reduced output by Brazilian iron ore group Vale is also likely to boost the price of the steel input; Prendergast notes that Vale’s shipments have totalled just 91 million tonnes so far in 2020, and it will have to ramp up production to meet its revised full-year guidance of 310 to 330 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Australian iron ore miners have downplayed the impact of China’s new rules for inspecting iron ore imports, stressing that they had been planned for some time and were implemented after extensive consultation.
MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG