IRON ORE – PRICES

Fortescue Metals shares leap on soaring iron ore futures

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Original article by Tess Ingram, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 26-Oct-16

Iron ore futures traded on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen to the highest level since mid-August 2014. Shares in pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group responded by rising 6.5 per cent to $A5.44 on 25 October 2016. Meanwhile, Fortescue has advised that it is still targeting a "C1" cost of between $US12 and $US13 per tonne for the 2016-17 financial year, compared with $US15.43 per tonne in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, DALIAN COMMODITY EXCHANGE, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Iron ore price set for big fall by mid-2017

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Original article by Brian Robins
The Age – Page: 23 : 21-Oct-16

Iron ore is currently trading at around $US55 per tonne, but Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power says the price is likely to fall in 2017 due to a looming increase in global supply. Power says the market has priced in the additional supply from the Roy Hill mine in Western Australia and the commencement of production at Vale’s S11D project. This will offset an expected downturn in iron ore production in China.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

Tighter supply means iron ore won’t fall to $US30: investors

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 15-Sep-16

Colonial First State Global Asset Management’s Todd Warren notes that a number of factors have contributed to lower-than-expected iron ore supply in 2016. However, he says the most bearish forecasts for the iron ore price are unlikely to be realised. The price of the steel input has retreated in recent weeks, although it has remained above $US50 per tonne for most of the last six months. Citigroup forecasts that the iron ore price will average $US45/tonne in 2017.

CORPORATES
COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA

Ore fears as China steel hits its peak

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Original article by Rowan Callick
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 12-Sep-16

China Metallurgical Industry Planning & Research Institute president Li Xinchuang expects the iron ore price to remain within a range of $US50 to $US60 per tonne for some time. He also says steel production in China peaked in 2014, when output totalled 823 million tonnes. Steel production fell to 804 million tonnes in 2015. Meanwhile, China’s steel exports have risen in recent years while domestic consumption has declined, while Li has criticised the Australian Government’s recent stance on Chinese investment.

CORPORATES
CHINA METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PLANNING AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA

Demand rally seen as strong enough to withstand US rate rise

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 7-Sep-16

Cadence Capital’s Karl Siegling argues that a rise in US interest rates is likely to have only a short-term impact on the recent rebound in commodity prices. James Gerrish of Shaw & Partners notes that while the gold price is likely to be the most affected by a rate rise, the iron ore price is primarily influenced by supply and demand considerations. Siegling adds that base metal producers will be the hardest hit by a rise in US interest rates.

CORPORATES
CADENCE CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX CDT, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MACQUARIE WEALTH MANAGEMENT, INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO

Man who tipped iron ore upturn sees it going on

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Original article by Jasmine Ng
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 12-Aug-16

The iron ore price has averaged around $US53 per tonne so far in 2016. Prestige Economics president Jason Schenker has forecast that the price of the steel input will average $US55 per tonne for the full calendar year. He also expects it to trade at around $US60 per tonne in the second half, while he says it will rise to $US62 in 2017 and $US72 in 2018. Schenker had forecast in October 2015 that the iron ore price would rebound, citing factors such as economic stimulus measures in China.

CORPORATES
PRESTIGE ECONOMICS LLC, ABN AMRO BANK NV, METAL BULLETIN LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA

Rio tamps down iron rally hope

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 4-Aug-16

Rio Tinto has posted a 2016 interim underlying profit of $US1.56bn, which is 47 per cent lower than previously. Weaker commodities prices reduced the underlying profit by $US1.9bn, while the net profit from its iron ore operations in Western Australia fell by 17 per cent to $US1.74bn. Meanwhile, CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques has warned that the recent upturn in the iron ore price may not be sustained, noting that the availability of credit was a major driver of increased demand for steel in China during the June quarter.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES LIMITED

End of Australia’s iron ore supply rush should help prices

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Original article by David Stringer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 22-Jul-16

The iron ore price has gained about 28 per cent so far in 2016, and SRK Consulting’s Caue Araujo says it could be further boosted in the near-term as a result of lower growth in shipments by Australia’s major producers. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto aim to eventually lift their production capacity in Western Australia to 290 million and 360 million tonnes respectively, but Macquarie Group recently suggested that neither may reach its target.

CORPORATES
SRK CONSULTING INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, VALE SA, METAL BULLETIN LIMITED

Iron ore miners reaping the benefits from soaring prices

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Original article by Peter Ker, Jessica Sier, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 14-Jul-16

The share prices of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group rallied on 13 July 2016, as the benchmark iron ore price continued to rise. UBS recently estimated that Fortescue’s break-even price is around $US32 per tonne, which is believed to be still slightly above the break-even price of both BHP and Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, Fortescue has advised that its iron ore shipments totalled 169.4 million tonnes in 2015-16, compared with its guidance of 165 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MARUBENI CORPORATION, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, VALE SA, STEELHOME, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, MESA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX MAS, PITCHER PARTNERS CORPORATE ADVISORY PTY LTD

Goldman says iron ore imports into China to fall off

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Original article by Jasmine Ng
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 4-Jul-16

A new report from Goldman Sachs forecasts a two per cent decline in China’s steel consumption in both 2017 and 2018. The investment bank also recently forecast that China’s iron ore imports will total 971 million tonnes in 2016, compared with 953 million tonnes in 2015. Iron ore imports are tipped to rise slightly in 2017, followed by a decline in subsequent years. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has maintained its long-term forecast of $US35 per tonne for iron ore.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, METAL BULLETIN LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA