IRON ORE – PRICES

BHP and Rio remain in Aberdeen’s good books

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Original article by Matthew Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 15-May-15

Aberdeen Asset Management’s Robert Penaloza has retained overweight positions in BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, despite the sharp decline in the iron ore price. The head of Australian equities has been actively buying BHP shares since mid-April 2015, and he may continue to buy shares in both of the resources giants. Penaloza notes that their low production costs means BHP and Rio are very resilient when commodities are both rising and falling.

CORPORATES
ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Iron ore fall may hit Rio, BHP capex

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 14-Apr-15

Iron ore was trading at around $US47.53 per tonne on 13 April 2015, and some analysts are increasingly bearish about its outlook. Citigroup now expects iron ore to average just $US37 per tonne for the remainder of 2015, while it is forecast to average $US40 for the following three years. Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey recently warned that iron ore could test the $US35 level. Analysts suggest that BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto could opt to reduce capital expenditure in response to such a scenario, rather than reduce their dividends

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, ATLAB AUSTRALIA

Small miners in danger zone

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Original article by Patrick Begley, Max Mason, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 9-Apr-15

Iron ore was trading at $US48.06 per tonne on 8 April 2015, prompting analysts to warn that more smaller Australian-listed producers will come under pressure. Anna Kassianos of Platypus Asset Management says many smaller players are in "desperation mode", but notes that global iron ore supply would not be unduly affected by their collapse. Tim Schroeders of Pengana Capital believes that Fortescue Metals Group can ride out the slump in the iron ore price

CORPORATES
PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, PENGANA CAPITAL LIMITED, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, GINDALBIE METALS LIMITED – ASX GBG, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, MINERAL DEPOSITS LIMITED – ASX MDL, ALLAN GRAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WATPAC LIMITED – ASX WTP

Iron ore price war rocks Atlas

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Original article by Amanda Saunders, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 8-Apr-15

Atlas Iron’s shares were placed in a trading halt on 7 April 2015, pending a review of its operations. The company has been hard hit by the downturn in the iron ore price, which has reached a long-term low of just $US46.70 per tonne. Atlas may put production at some of its mines on hold until the iron ore price recovers, while asset sales are also possible. However, there are concerns that its US bondholders could seek to appoint receivers or administrators

CORPORATES
ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, ASHURST AUSTRALIA, LAZARD PTY LTD, BGC CONTRACTING PTY LTD, MACA LIMITED – ASX MLD, McALEESE LIMITED – ASX MCS, HOULIHAN LOKEY HOWARD AND ZUKIN, PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED

China steel output may fall 25pc

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Original article by Angus Grigg, Jennifer Hewett, Phillip Coorey, Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 7-Apr-15

The price of iron ore fell to $US47 per tonne in early April 2015, and it has now shed 63 per cent since the beginning of 2014. Australian economist Ross Garnaut has forecast that steel production in China will decline by 27 per cent in the next 15 years, which would in turn affect demand for Australian iron ore. Meanwhile, Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics notes that the continued fall in the iron ore price will slash Australia’s national income and tax revenue

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE, VALE SA, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI

Will iron ore plunge below $US50

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 38 : 2-Apr-15

The iron ore price fell to around $US51 per tonne on 1 April 2015, compared with $US68 at the beginning of the year. However, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton plan to keep ramping up production, and Glyn Lawcock of UBS says the price would have to fall to about $US30 for their iron ore operations to become unprofitable. Westpac expects the iron ore price to test the $US47 level in 2015

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Iron ore slump forces RBA to mull April cut

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Apr-15

The price of iron ore shed 16 per cent during March 2015, and it is now trading below $US53 per tonne. The slump has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate on 7 April, and financial markets have priced in a 68 per cent chance of a cut. Kieran Davies of Barclays is among the economists who expect a rate cut in April, although Westpac’s Bill Evans believes that the cash rate may be left on hold until May

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, RATECITY PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, TD SECURITIES

Iron ore budget hole gets bigger

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Mar-15

Prime Minister Tony Abbott says his government will balance the Budget in about five years’ time. However, the continued fall in the price of iron ore since late 2014 is expected to reduce government revenue by $A1.8bn a year. The mid-year Budget update had forecast an average iron ore price of $US60 per tonne, but it has since traded at a low of $US56. Meanwhile, Education Minister Christopher Pyne will press ahead with university reforms, despite the bill being rejected by the Senate for a second time on 17 March 2015

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF SOCIAL SERVICES, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

More miners steeled for failure

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 11-Feb-15

The iron ore price has fallen by 14 per cent so far in 2015, and it was trading at $US61.20 per tonne on 10 February. Andrew Hodge of consulting firm Wood Mackenzie warns that the Koolyanobbing, Carina and Savage River iron ore mines in Australia could potentially be closed if the price remains at around its current level. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that iron ore will average $US70 per tonne in 2015

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY AND SCIENCE. BUREAU OF RESOURCES AND ENERGY ECONOMICS

BREE caught out by iron ore price plunge

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 24-Nov-14

Australia’s Bureau of Resources & Energy Economics (BREE) had forecast in September 2014 that the price of iron ore will average between $US90 and $US105 per tonne over the next five years. The price has since fallen to around $US70/tonne, which will prompt BREE to scale back its short-term forecast for the steel input. BREE’s Wayne Calder concedes that the agency did not anticipate the sharp fall in the iron ore price, but notes that it does not forecast the spot price at any given time

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY. BUREAU OF RESOURCES AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP