IRON ORE – PRICES

Miners cashing in as iron ore price surges

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 28 : 4-Jul-19

The price of iron ore from the Pilbara peaked at $US185 per tonne in 2011, when the Australian dollar was at parity with its US counterpart. The headline price of Pilbara iron ore is now trading at almost $US125 a tonne, which equates to a relative price of nearly $US180 a tonne when a much lower exchange rate is taken into account. Macquarie says the spot price of iron ore may have further to run, given that stockpiles at Chinese ports are continuing to decline. Meanwhile, BHP and Fortescue Metals Group are likely to exceed their revised guidance for 2018-19 iron ore export volumes after strong performances in June.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, ATLAS IRON LIMITED, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, VALE SA

Iron ore surges past $US120 but softer China demand looms

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Original article by Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 3-Jul-19

Shares in Australia’s three major iron ore producers rallied on 2 July after the price of the steel input rose above $US120 per tonne. Factors such as supply constraints and record Chinese demand for steel have been key drivers of the iron ore price in 2019. However, some market watchers believe that the current price of iron ore cannot be sustained, given the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy. Fortescue Metals Group’s shares have gained 139 per cent so far in 2019, while BHP and Rio Tinto have gained 28 per cent and 41 per cent respectively.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE, THE CHAMBER OF MINERALS AND ENERGY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

Bullish iron ore could give budget $4b boost

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 29-May-19

The iron ore price reached a five-year high of $US108 per tonne on 28 May, prompting strong gains in the share prices of Australia’s three major producers. The federal government’s April 2019 Budget had forecast that the iron ore price would average $US88/tonne in 2019-20; Nicki Hutley of Deloitte Access Economics says government revenue could increase by $4bn if the price remains at its current level over this period. Goldman Sachs does not expect iron ore to remain above $US100 for long; it has issued a revised price forecast for 2019 of $US91.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR

Iron ore’s wild run threatens fragile balance

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Weekend Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 25-May-19

The iron ore price recently rose to a five-year high of more than $US100 per tonne. While the price surge will boost the earnings of Australian iron ore producers, BHP and Rio Tinto in particular would prefer a sustained price of around $US70 per tonne. The current elevated price of the steel input provides an incentive for other mining companies to develop iron ore projects and emerge as rival exporters to Asian steel mills. Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and India could potentially resume iron ore shipments to China, while strong growth in China’s scrap steel market looms as another possible threat to Australian producers.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ATLAS IRON LIMITED, VALE SA

Iron ore is surging, but not all producers are joining the party

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Original article by Clyde Russell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 23-May-19

The spot price of iron ore for delivery to China has risen by more than 38 per cent so far in 2019, to over $US100 per tonne. Shares in Australian-listed Fortescue Metals Group have in turned gained 119 per cent in local currency terms, while Rio Tinto and BHP have risen by 33.7 per cent and 15.6 per cent respectively. In contrast, Brazil-based Vale has shed seven per cent in local currency terms so far in 2019, and nearly 16 per cent since a tailings dam collapse in late January.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, ARGUS MEDIA PTY LTD

How the iron ore price busted above $US100 a tonne

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 21-May-19

The tailings dam collapse at a Vale mine in January has been a major driver of the iron ore price’s rise to a five-year high of $US100 per tonne. The disaster reduced seaborne iron ore supply by around six per cent, prompting a rally in the price of the steel input and the shares of major producers. The reduced global supply has also coincided with rising demand for iron ore in China. Meanwhile, Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank expects the iron ore price to ease to around $US85 per tonne by the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
VALE SA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Vale’s latest legal blow boosts iron ore stocks

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 8-May-19

Brazilian miner Vale has advised that its sales of iron ore and pellets in 2019 will be at the lower end of its previous forecast of between 307 and 332 million tonnes. The revised guidance follows a court’s move to reverse its decision to allow Vale to resume production at mines that were affected by a tailings dam collapse in January. Shares in Australian iron ore miners rallied on 7 May, and Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners expects further volatility in the price of the steel input in the next several years.

CORPORATES
VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX

Analysts predict iron ore prices have hit peak

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Original article by Cole Latimer
The Age – Page: 25 : 24-Apr-19

UBS has forecast that the iron ore price will average $US83 per tonne in 2019, warning that the steel input’s recent high of around $US93/tonne is not sustainable. The investment bank says recent supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil are unlikely to have a long-term impact on the iron ore price, forecasting that it will fall over the next 12 months. Expectations of a lower iron ore price have also contributed to UBS’s decision to downgrade its recommendation on BHP’s shares from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’. PhillipCapital expects iron ore to average $US78/tonne in 2019.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, PHILLIP CAPITAL LIMITED, VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

UBS hikes iron ore forecasts a second time

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 29-Mar-19

Investment bank UBS now expects the price of iron ore to average $US83 per tonne in 2019, which is 12 per cent higher than its previous forecast. UBS had already increased its price forecast from $US65 per tonne to $U74 in response to the tailings dam disaster in Brazil in late January. UBS also forecasts that Australia’s three major iron ore producers will slightly reduce their full-year production guidance after their Pilbara operations were affected by a recent cyclone.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION

Surplus powered by iron ore and coal

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 19-Mar-19

Ernst & Young expects the federal Budget’s bottom line to be $9.2bn better off over the next two years than Treasury had forecast in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. The firm’s modelling of the Budget outcome is based on factors such as the price of iron ore and coal. Iron ore has averaged $US72 per tonne so far in 2018-19, compared with the MYEFO forecast of $U55/tonne. The price of metallurgical coal is also trading well above the MYEFO forecast so far in the current financial year.

CORPORATES
ERNST AND YOUNG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE