Employment growth stalls as overall employment down on a year ago

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,174,000 Australians were employed in February 2019, down 54,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a decrease in part-time employment of 60,000 (to 4,015,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, up by 6,000 to 8,159,000. The figures also show that 1,292,000 Australians (9.6% of the workforce) were unemployed in February, down 18,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1%. In addition, 1,156,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 54,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,448,000 Australians (18.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, a decrease of 72,000 in a year (down 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.6% for February is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for January of 5.0% although Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 8.6% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.1%. Meanwhile, the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends of March 2/3 & 9/10 with a representative cross-section of 1,603 electors shows the ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP’s lead amongst women is even stronger with women supporting the ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% while men also support the ALP but to a lesser degree: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine comments on the latest employment data

Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-19

The lack of jobs growth over the last year will be a significant concern for the Federal Government, which is due to seek re-election at a Federal election expected in mid-May. As well as the lack of employment growth over the past year the latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence rating for February of only 105.6 – the lowest since August 2015 – indicates Australia’s businesses are waiting for the political uncertainty to clear in a few months’ time. The consecutive ratings below 110 are the slowest start to a year for Business Confidence since the index began. The latest Australian GDP figures showed the economy growing by only 0.2% in the December 2018 quarter, the slowest rate of growth for over two years since a quarterly contraction of 0.5% in the September 2016 quarter. Given the political uncertainty facing Australia over the next two months, with a New South Wales election later in March before the Federal election expected in mid-May, the prospects for the economy and employment growth in the short-term appear to be limited. However, the Federal Government has a chance to ‘reboot the economy’ with a stimulative Federal Budget due to be delivered on the first Tuesday in April. The Budget is also the Morrison Government’s last chance to save their chances of re-election as the Roy Morgan Poll, and other polls, have consistently shown the ALP heading towards an easy election victory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Permaflexi plan a ruse to reduce pay, unions war

Original article by Dana McCauley
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 12 : 1-Mar-19

Health Services Union secretary Lloyd Williams has criticised a push by employers for the Fair Work Commission to recognise a new category of employment. So-called ‘permaflexi’ workers would be paid a 10 per cent loading in exchange for flexible rostering, while they would also receive sick leave and annual leave entitlements. The NSW Business Chamber’s application states that workers who are hired under a "flexible ongoing employment" arrangement would have a minimum of 1-3 hours’ work per week.

CORPORATES
HEALTH SERVICES UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, NSW BUSINESS CHAMBER LIMITED, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN SERVICES UNION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Wage rises to arrest falling growth outlooks

Original article by Natasha Gillezeau, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 14-Feb-19

BIS Oxford Economics recently downgraded its GDP growth forecast to 2.2 per cent, but the firm does not expect the Hayne royal commission to have much impact on the economy. Alexandra Heath, the Reserve Bank’s head of economics, says the labour market was more resilient in 2018 than the central bank had expected, and it is likely to remain strong in 2019. She says this should in turn lead to a gradual increase in wages. She adds that the downturn in the housing market is unlikely to have much impact on economic growth or consumer spending.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

Record employment in January driven by increasing full-time jobs

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Feb-19

A Roy Morgan survey shows that a record 12,397,000 Australians were employed in January 2019, up 161,000 over the past year. The increase in employment was driven by a solid increase in full-time employment of 212,000 (to 8,257,000); part-time employment was down 51,000 (to 4,140,000). The figures also show that 1,253,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were unemployed in January (up 34,000 on a year ago), and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%. In addition, 1,300,000 Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 71,000 in a year (down 0.7%). In total 2,553,000 Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in January, a decrease of 37,000 in a year (down 0.6%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for January is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for December 2018 of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that despite steady economic growth over the past few years, analysing the employment trends shows that over 2 million Australians have been unemployed or underemployed for over seven years.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

December jobs growth beats forecasts

Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 25-Jan-19

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate eased from 5.1 per cent to five per cent in December, with a net gain of 21,600 jobs during the month. Some 24,600 new part-time jobs were created, although the number of full-time positions fell by 3,000. The general consensus of economists had been for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1 per cent and for 18,000 new jobs to have been created in December. Meanwhile, the labour market’s under-utilisation rate has fallen by 0.2 per cent to 13.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BIXWOOD PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

No change to hourly pay gap in 10 years

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 24-Jan-19

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released a report which concludes that the average hourly pay of women is still 11 per cent lower than their male peers. The report shows that the gender pay gap is widest in the health sector, at 25 per cent, despite the fact that women account for nearly 80 per cent of workers in the sector. In contrast, sectors such as manufacturing, hospitality and the public service are among those with the narrowest gender pay gap.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS

Casualisation of workforce falls, finds ABS

Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 23-Jan-19

Official data shows that casual employees accounted for 22 per cent of the Australian workforce in May 2018, down from 22.6 per cent two years earlier. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest biennial employees earnings survey also shows that the number of employees totalled 10,647,200 in May 2018. Mark Wooden, the director of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey project, says the ABS survey provides an accurate reading on the number of casual employees as it interviews employers rather than workers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CENTRE FOR FUTURE WORK, ACTU

Which industries can expect pay rise in 2019

Original article by Lucas Baird
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 11-Jan-19

Information and communications technology is one of just three areas that 1st Executive director Andrew Thoseby says people wanting to change career paths to get a pay rise should switch to. He says the other two areas are insolvency accounting and sales. Executive headhunter Kylie Hammond is advising job applicants to seek out industries she describes as "recession-proof", including aged-care and health. Touchstone Executive Search MD Chris Kliengbeil does not expect much growth in fixed remuneration in the fast-moving consumer goods and retail sector in 2019.

CORPORATES
1ST EXECUTIVE PTY LTD, TOUCHSTONE EXECUTIVE SEARCH

Aust job vacancies rise 1.3pct to new peak

Original article by Alex Druce
News.com.au – Page: Online : 10-Jan-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 1.7 per cent growth in job vacancies during the three months to November, or 1.3 per cent in seasonally-adjusted terms. The total number of vacancies rose to 241,600, compared with 238,400 in the three months to August. The number of job vacancies in the public sector grew by four per cent to 21,600 in the November quarter, while there was 1.1 per cent growth in private-sector jobs.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, INDEED INCORPORATED