Major hit, big job losses ahead: RBA

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Mar-20

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says the unemployment rate can be expected to rise in coming months, as the coronavirus is likely to result in "significant" job losses. However, he says the labour market should rebound quite fast if the virus’s outbreak in Australia can be contained. Lowe also said the virus and measures to combat its spread will have a "severe" impact on the economy, although he is hopeful that this will be temporary. Lowe has indicated that housing market activity is likely to be affected by the pandemic.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Over 2.4 million Australians looking for work following summer of bushfires along Australia’s east coast

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Mar-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,913,000 Australians were employed in February 2020, up 739,000 from a year ago. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 514,000 over the last year (to 8,673,000), and an increase of 225,000 in part-time employment (to 4,105,000). The figures also show that 1,174,000 Australians (8.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in February, down 118,000 on a year ago, with the unemployment rate falling 1.3%. An additional 1,269,000 Australians (9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 113,000 (or 0.4%) over the last year. In total, 2,443,000 Australians (17.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, down 5,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.3% for February is higher than the current ABS estimate for January of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that more Australians are working than ever before and 67.1% of Australians of working age are now in the workforce – up 2% points on a year ago and a two-and-a-half year high.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Part time and casual jobs fuelling the growth of under-employment

Original article by
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 27-Feb-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine appeared on the ABC’s ‘7.30’ program on 26 February to discuss the issue of under-employment in Australia. Research by Roy Morgan shows that 8.7 per cent of the workforce is under-employed, compared with the official ABS figure of 8.5 per cent. Roy Morgan estimates that almost 1.2 million Australians were under-employed in 2019, an increase of nearly 450,000 since 2005. Levine says part-time jobs are growing at a faster rate than full-time jobs, and the economy would benefit from people having extra work if they wanted it. The ABS counts a person as being employed if they work for just one hour a week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION

Roy Morgan January unemployment predicted the increase seen yesterday with the ABS results

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-20

The Roy Morgan January unemployment and under-employment result released earlier this week showed an increase in real unemployment to 9.7% in January with over 1.36 million Australians now unemployed (an increase of 1% point from December) and a further 1.23 million (8.7% of the workforce) now under-employed – and now the ABS results have confirmed the upward trend in unemployment. The ABS figures show seasonally adjusted unemployment of 5.3% in January, up 0.2% points from December with 726,000 Australians now looking for a job according to the ABS. The ABS figures show an additional 8.6% of Australians are now under-employed. The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show over 2.5 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) are now looking for a job or looking for more work while the ABS claims a significantly lower figure of around 1.9 million (13.9%). These results suggest the ABS is continuing to under-estimate the level of true workforce labour under-utilisation in Australia.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs market setback rekindles threat of interest rate cut

Original article by Patrick Commins, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 8 : 21-Feb-20

Ben Jarman of JP Morgan says the latest jobs data will strengthen the case for another official interest rate cut. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the economy added 46,200 full-time jobs in January, although this was offset by the loss of 32,700 part-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to a higher-than-expected 5.3 per cent, from 5.1 per cent in December. The labour participation rate rose by 0.1 per cent to 66.1 per cent, and the under-utilisation rate rose to a 19-month high of 13.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rate cut odds sink with jobless fall

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 24-Jan-20

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent in December, its lowest level since April. The economy shed 300 full-time jobs, although this was offset by the creation of 29,200 part-time jobs. The underemployment rate was steady at 8.3 per cent; the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ chief economist Bruce Hockman notes that underemployment has remained unchanged over the last year. Financial markets have responded to the latest jobs data by pricing in a 25 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Under-employment up in December

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,691,000 Australians were employed in December 2019, up 617,000 over the last year. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 367,000 over the last year (to 8,326,000); part-time employment increased by 250,000 (to 4,365,000). The figures also show that 1,205,000 Australians (8.7% of the workforce) were unemployed in December, down 97,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was down 1%. An additional 1,383,000 Australians (9.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 205,000 in a year (up 1.1%). In total, 2,588,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, up 108,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% is higher than the current ABS estimate for November of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says we have seen consistently during recent years that strong growth in employment has not resulted in sustained drops in unemployment and under-employment. This trend continued throughout 2019.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Pundits expect rate cut despite jobs positivity

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 9-Jan-20

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 1.6 per cent growth in job vacancies in the November quarter, in seasonally adjusted terms. Private sector job vacancies increased by 1.5 per cent, after declining in the two previous quarters. The figures also show that the number of available jobs rose to 239,400 in the year to November, compared with 235,100 in August. However, economics still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Jobs surge slashes RBA rate cut odds

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 20-Dec-19

The financial market’s expectations of an official interest rate cut in February have been reduced from 56.8 per cent to just 45.2 per cent, following the release of the latest jobs data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that 39,900 jobs were created in November, well above economists’ forecasts of 15,000. The unemployment rate eased from 5.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent, with 4,200 full-time and 35,700 part-time jobs being created during the month. The participation rate was steady at 66 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Robots to take 500,000 jobs

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 10-Dec-14

The Department of Industry’s "Australian Industry Report 2014" suggests that many white-collar jobs that involve routine tasks could automated in coming years. These include roles such as accountants, bank tellers, supermarket cashiers and pharmacists. Some 78.6 per cent of people in roles that are risk from automation hold a university degree. A report in 2013 found that around 47 per cent of jobs in the US could potentially be replaced by automation

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, OXFORD UNIVERSITY. OXFORD MARTIN SCHOOL