Over 2 million Australians still unemployed in June, down 42,000 on May

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-20

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the unemployment estimate for June shows 2.05 million Australians were unemployed (14.5% of the workforce) and 1.41 million (10.0%) under-employed – a total of 3.45 million Australians (24.5%). The small changes in unemployment and under-employment in June show how much new growth is required to provide jobs for the more than 1 million Australians now unemployed that were working prior to the Australia-wide shut-downs enforced in mid-March. In addition the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne over the last two weeks demonstrates the virus poses an ongoing threat to lives, livelihoods and the economy more broadly.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Jobs clawback sees 250,000 return to work

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 1-Jul-20

New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the number of employees on companies’ payrolls has increased by 2.7 per cent since mid-April. This equates to about 250,000 workers, and follows an 8.8 per cent fall in payrolled jobs in the four weeks from 14 March. However, there are still 670,000 fewer workers on companies’ payrolls than prior to the coronavirus pandemic. The figures are based on payrolls data from the Australian Taxation Office.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE

Official ABS May jobless rate out today – will anyone believe figure?

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Jun-20

Economist Saul Eslake says the May jobless rate would be nearer 13 per cent if those on JobSeeker and the youth allowance were counted as unemployed. Gary Morgan, the executive chairman of Roy Morgan, who conduct their own unemployment survey, says the headline ABS jobless figure is "phony" and the government needs to revise definitions. He says the current definitions were made up after the Second World War, and things have changed a lot. Morgan notes that there are now far more women and part-time workers in the workforce, and people change jobs more. Record uncertainty about the job market and doubts over the relevance of the ‘official’ ABS unemployment rate have prompted calls for more information on the number of welfare recipients and a rethink of how ‘unemployed’ is defined. ABS forecasts for the May unemployment rate will be released on 18 June.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

2.09 million Australians unemployed in May, down 69,000 on April

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jun-20

In May 14.8% of the workforce (2.09 million Australians) were unemployed and 9.7% (1.37 million) were under-employed. This is a total of 3.46 million (24.5%) unemployed or under-employed as Australia begins to open up, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates – obviously an under-estimation as 3.5 million are currently subsidised on JobKeeper. Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says: "Australia has entered its first recession for three decades and a quarter of the Australian workforce is unemployed or under-employed. To emerge from recession quickly businesses and unions must work together to forge sensible and equitable solutions that encourage employers to hire new workers. A Roy Morgan survey this week showed the Federal Court decision to award extra entitlements to certain casual employees will effect up to 794,000 Australian businesses. 567,000 businesses say they will be deterred from hiring casual employees and 123,000 say the decision will ‘force them to close’. This shows if businesses and unions don’t work together hundreds of thousands of Australians will struggle to find new jobs."

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Federal Court’s ruling on casual employees set to have impact on hundreds of thousands of businesses says Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine

Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-20

The business community and union movement must come together and reach an equitable solution about how to handle the implications of the decision in the interests of a healthy Australian jobs market. The biggest direct impact is that businesses will be deterred from hiring casual employees. Businesses mentioned ‘double-dipping’ and that ‘casual workers already get a 25% loading for sick pay and annual leave’. In addition as many as 123,000 businesses say they will be ‘forced to close’. The reluctance to hire casual employees is a troubling development in an economy which has experienced over a million job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has flagged working with unions and businesses to re-boot the Australian economy after the pandemic, but the impetus must be driven by business and union leaders to succeed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

794,000 businesses affected by casual employee ruling

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jun-20

A special Roy Morgan SMS survey of 881 Australian businesses shows that 34.5% are set to be affected by the Federal Court’s ruling on the entitlements of casual employees. Most worryingly, as many as 123,000 (5.5%) businesses say they will be ‘forced to close’ because of the ruling. A majority of small businesses (54.5%) with 5-19 employees and medium businesses (54.5%) with 20-199 employees say they will be affected by the ruling in some way. Over a third of large businesses (36%) with 200+ employees and just under a third of micro businesses (32%) with 1-5 employees say they will be affected by the ruling in some way. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the Federal Court’s ruling on casual employees has the potential to have a significant impact on hundreds of thousands of Australian businesses.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA

JobSeeker’s block on work to be scrutinised

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 22-May-20

The federal government’s decision to double the JobSeeker allowance will be scrutinised as part of its forthcoming review of the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme. There are concerns that increasing the unemployment benefit to $550 a week has prompted some casual workers to quit their jobs, as they are of the view that they are financially better off by going on the dole. Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy stresses that JobKeeper and the increased JobKeeper payment are temporary. However, he has flagged the possibility that they may be phased out gradually.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Casual benefits ruling raises JobKeeper risk

Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 22-May-20

Employers may face claims for up to $8bn in back pay following the Federal Court’s ruling that casual workers who have ‘regular and predictable shifts’ are entitled to paid leave and a 25 per cent loading. Industrial Relations Minister Christian Porter has flagged government action in response to the ruling, saying one option may be to give more casual workers the right to request that their jobs become permanent. Council of Small Business Organisations CEO Peter Strong says the ruling will deter small businesses from hiring casual workers, while Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox warns of the potential for large-scale job losses when the JobKeeper scheme ends in September.

CORPORATES
FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, SKILLS, SMALL AND FAMILY BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

ABS April Unemployment estimate doesn’t reflect reality. ABS claims 594,000 lose their jobs but only 104,000 become unemployed (?!?)

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-20

Yesterday the ABS released its April employment estimates. The ABS estimates that 12,419,000 Australians were employed in April, down 594,000 on March. There were sharp falls for both full-time and part-time employed. The ABS estimate Australian unemployment increased by only 104,000 to 823,000 in April (6.2% of the workforce, up 1%). Australians will be asking, how can the ABS say 594,000 have lost their jobs in April but only 104,000 become unemployed? This is because the ABS claim 490,000 people left the workforce in April. i.e. the ABS claims these people lost their jobs and weren’t then looking for work and available to start work during the reference week. These workers are unemployed – NOT out of the workforce. So the workforce size in April should match the March estimate of 66%. The real ABS unemployment estimate for April is closer to 1.35 million (9.8%) – an increase of 4.6% points. Combined with the estimated ABS under-employment of 1.82 million (13.7%) means a combined unemployment and under-employment of 3.16 million (23.5%). This is much closer to the Roy Morgan April employment estimates showing 2.16 million Australians (15.3%) were unemployed and a total of 3.48 million (24.7%) were either unemployed or under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

‘Massive hit’: unemployment jump set to break ABS records

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 14-May-20

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects labour market data to be released on 14 May will show that a record 750,000 jobs were lost in April. AMP Capital forecasts that the unemployment rate rose to 10 per cent in April, while less bearish economists anticipate a jobless rate of between eight and nine per cent. Justin Smirk of Westpac notes that the actual jobless rate is likely to be much higher, as the Australian Bureau of statistics does not consider somebody to be unemployment if they have been laid off but have a job to go back to. Meanwhile, data from the ABS shows that annual growth in wages was just 2.1 per cent in the March quarter.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS