RBA warns rates may go lower to drive jobs

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 13-Jun-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia recently downwardly revised its estimate of full employment from 5.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent. Assistant governor Luci Ellis has indicated that the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment may in fact be as low as 3.5 per cent, adding that the central bank may have to keep reducing the cash rate until the unemployment rate reaches this level. Australia’s official unemployment rate is currently about five per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Real unemployment at 10.3% as L-NP starts new term in Government

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 11,926,000 Australians were employed in May 2019, down 219,0000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 375,000 over the past year (to 3,911,000); full-time employment was up by 156,000 (to 8,015,000). The figures also show that 1,369,000 Australians (10.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in May, up 53,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%. An additional 1,223,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 28,000 in a year (down 0.1%). In total, 2,592,000 Australians (19.5% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May, an increase of 25,000 in a year (up 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.3% for May is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2019 of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the first priority for the re-elected Coalition government is to pass the promised income tax cuts as soon as Parliament resumes. Other legislative priorities should include tackling the ‘cash economy’ which undermines law-abiding businesses, reducing the penalty rates for businesses opening on weekends and public holidays, and cutting the regulatory ‘red tape’ that discourages businesses from hiring new workers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs up, jobless up, pose RBA dilemma

Original article by Matthew Cranston, Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-May-19

Official figures show that the Australian economy added a higher-than-expected 28,400 jobs in April, with a net gain of 34,700 part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,300 full-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 per cent, while the labour force participation rate rose from 65.7 per cent to a record 65.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate rose to 8.3 per cent and the underutilisation rate rose to 13.7 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates in June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LENDLEASE GROUP – ASX LLC

Over 600,000 jobs created since last election, but is it enough for the L-NP?

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

Roy Morgan real Australian unemployment is 8.9% in April, down 2% in a month, and following the same pattern seen during the last Federal Election when unemployment declined by 1.1% during the campaign before rebounding. There were 1.2 million Australians unemployed in April and a further 1.18 million Australians under-employed – a total of 2.38 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work (17.7% of the workforce). Full-time employment was 8.03 million, up nearly 350,000 since the last election, while part-time employment was 4.22 million (up 260,000). Although over 600,000 jobs have been created since the last Federal Election in July 2016, total unemployment and under-employment remains stuck well above 2 million people.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Bellwether sectors shed thousands of workers

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 23 & 31 : 10-May-19

Analysis by JP Morgan shows that nearly 140,000 jobs were lost in Australia’s manufacturing, construction and retail sectors in the first three months of 2019. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that so-called bellwether sectors are the most closely linked to the economic cycle. He says rising job losses in these sectors will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. George Tharenou of UBS says GDP growth is a more reliable indicator of the health of the economy than monthly employment data.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

RBA sets jobless test for rate cut

Original article by Vesna Poljak, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-May-19

The Reserve Bank has downgraded its 2019 growth forecast for the Australian economy from three per cent to around 2.75 per cent. The central bank indicated on 7 May that a "further improvement" in the labour market will be necessary to lift inflation to its target range. It has also flagged the prospect of an interest rate cut if the employment rate does not fall below five per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank says the central bank will almost certainly reduce the cash rate if there is even a modest rise in unemployment.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ALP vow: permanent work for casuals

Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Apr-19

Labor has doubled down on the Coalition’s commitment to legislate to allow casual workers to apply to become permanent employees after 12 months of regular and ongoing work with the same employer. Labor will also amend the Fair Work Act to allow such workers to legally challenge a refusal of their request to become a permanent employee. More than 50 per cent of Australia’s 2.6 million casual employees have worked for the same employer for at least 12 months.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

Real unemployment jumps to 10.9% as Australians prepare to vote in election

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,158,000 Australians were employed in March 2019, down 216,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 203,000 over the past year (to 4,228,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, down by 13,000 (to 7,930,000). The figures also show that 1,491,000 Australians (10.9% of the workforce) were unemployed in March, up 281,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 2%. In addition, 1,321,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 41,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, a record high 2,812,000 Australians (20.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March, an increase of 240,000 in a year (up 1.7%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.9% for March is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for February of 4.9%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the disappointing employment figures suggest the real problem facing the Morrison Government has been an inability to solve Australia’s continuing problem of high unemployment and under-employment. Roy Morgan has consistently shown over 2 million Australians looking for work (unemployed) or looking for more work (under-employed) since the L-NP Government was first elected in September 2013 and that problem remains a large one to this day.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

White Collar wipeout

Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 27 : 17-Apr-19

Media reports have suggested that the Commonwealth Bank and ANZ are looking to retrench up to 25 per cent of their staff. Rival banks will also need to reduce wage costs in order to remain competitive. Meanwhile, new technologies such as artificial intelligence and block chain will result in much bigger job cuts over the next decade, and in a wide range of sectors. The public service offers the greatest potential for major staff cuts, but unions will resist any such move. With fewer job opportunities in the future, more Australians will need to start their own business; in this context, the federal government’s move to establish a small business tax tribunal that is independent of the Australian Taxation Office is to be welcomed.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ACTU

Jobless fall gives RBA breathing room

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 22-Mar-19

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from five per cent to 4.9 per cent in February, with a net gain of 4,600 jobs for the month. The economy shed 7,300 full-time jobs in February, although this was offset by the creation of 11,900 part-time positions. The participation rate and the underutilisation rate both eased slightly, to 65.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent respectively. Economists say the unemployment rate’s fall to an eight-year low will reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK