LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

Casual benefits ruling raises JobKeeper risk

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 22-May-20

Employers may face claims for up to $8bn in back pay following the Federal Court’s ruling that casual workers who have ‘regular and predictable shifts’ are entitled to paid leave and a 25 per cent loading. Industrial Relations Minister Christian Porter has flagged government action in response to the ruling, saying one option may be to give more casual workers the right to request that their jobs become permanent. Council of Small Business Organisations CEO Peter Strong says the ruling will deter small businesses from hiring casual workers, while Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox warns of the potential for large-scale job losses when the JobKeeper scheme ends in September.

CORPORATES
FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, SKILLS, SMALL AND FAMILY BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COUNCIL OF SMALL BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

ABS April Unemployment estimate doesn’t reflect reality. ABS claims 594,000 lose their jobs but only 104,000 become unemployed (?!?)

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-20

Yesterday the ABS released its April employment estimates. The ABS estimates that 12,419,000 Australians were employed in April, down 594,000 on March. There were sharp falls for both full-time and part-time employed. The ABS estimate Australian unemployment increased by only 104,000 to 823,000 in April (6.2% of the workforce, up 1%). Australians will be asking, how can the ABS say 594,000 have lost their jobs in April but only 104,000 become unemployed? This is because the ABS claim 490,000 people left the workforce in April. i.e. the ABS claims these people lost their jobs and weren’t then looking for work and available to start work during the reference week. These workers are unemployed – NOT out of the workforce. So the workforce size in April should match the March estimate of 66%. The real ABS unemployment estimate for April is closer to 1.35 million (9.8%) – an increase of 4.6% points. Combined with the estimated ABS under-employment of 1.82 million (13.7%) means a combined unemployment and under-employment of 3.16 million (23.5%). This is much closer to the Roy Morgan April employment estimates showing 2.16 million Australians (15.3%) were unemployed and a total of 3.48 million (24.7%) were either unemployed or under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

‘Massive hit’: unemployment jump set to break ABS records

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 14-May-20

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects labour market data to be released on 14 May will show that a record 750,000 jobs were lost in April. AMP Capital forecasts that the unemployment rate rose to 10 per cent in April, while less bearish economists anticipate a jobless rate of between eight and nine per cent. Justin Smirk of Westpac notes that the actual jobless rate is likely to be much higher, as the Australian Bureau of statistics does not consider somebody to be unemployment if they have been laid off but have a job to go back to. Meanwhile, data from the ABS shows that annual growth in wages was just 2.1 per cent in the March quarter.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Door not shut on extending jobless aid: PM

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-May-20

JP Morgan expects about one million Australians to have lost their jobs in April, lifting the unemployment rate to 8.5 per cent. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reiterated that at present the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme is still slated to be in place for six months. He adds that it could be extended or scaled back, depending on the pace at which the economy and the labour market recover from the pandemic. Official labour market data for April will be released on 14 May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows 2.16 million Australians were unemployed (15.3% of the workforce) with an additional 1.32 million (9.4%) under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-May-20

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows that in total a massive 3.5 million (24.7%) Australians are now either unemployed or under-employed. This is 439,000 fewer than the 3.92 million (27.4%) during the last two weeks of March (March 20-31, 2020), immediately before the Federal Government’s JobKeeper program was announced. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 15.3% for April is now almost three times higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2020 of 5.2%. The ABS figure for March was based on interviews conducted in reference to early March (pre shut-downs) and did not include data related to the situation in late March (post shut-downs).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Wider impact of virus crisis becoming clearer

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 21 : 28-Apr-20

Roy Morgan has revealed that 10.5 million Australians have had their employment circumstances changed by the impact of COVID-19. This includes 3.8 million people who have had their work hours cut, while 670,000 people have been made redundant. Roy Morgan found that three-quarters of sole traders have been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, but that 46 per cent of people who work for entities with over 1,000 employees have not had their employment affected in some manner by the crisis. Agriculture, transport and storage, and wholesale trade are among the sectors least impacted by the crisis, according to Roy Morgan.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Jobless blow will be worst since 1930s

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 20-Apr-20

A report from the Grattan Institute has forecast that jobs in the hospitality, arts and recreation, retail and education sectors will be hardest hit by the coronavirus and the measures that have been deployed to contain it. The public policy think tank estimates that 14-26 per cent of Australian workers will soon be out of work, or up to 3.4 million people. In addition, the Grattan Institute warns that the JobKeeper scheme will not prevent the unemployment rate from rising to 10-15 per cent.

CORPORATES
GRATTAN INSTITUTE

ABS March unemployment figures are misleading – because second half of March ignored!

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-20

The ABS yesterday, finally, released their March unemployment estimates – actually the first half of March. The ABS March employment estimates show employment increasing by 6,000 and unemployment virtually unchanged at 5.2%, up only 0.1% from February – both very misleading and should never have been released in their current form. On April 8, 2020 Roy Morgan released accurate real employment and unemployment estimates for the whole of March – pre and post COVID-19 lock-down. Roy Morgan’s unemployment estimate pre the COVID-19 lock-down was 7.3%, essentially unchanged on February. However, Roy Morgan’s late March unemployment estimates showed the Government’s COVID-19 lockdown response resulted in an extra 1.4 million Australians becoming unemployed in a matter of two weeks, leading to unemployment of 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increasing 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%) in the second half of March. This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – depression numbers! (Following is a link to full details on Roy Morgan’s March employment and under-employment estimates: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8363-roy-morgan-unemployment-and-under-employment-march-2020-202004080900)

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Extra 1.4 million Australians out of work in wake of COVID-19 pandemic – 3.92 million (27.4% of workforce) now unemployed or under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-20

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate for the second half of March jumped a staggering 1.4 million to 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increased 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%). This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – far more Australians looking for work than was the case during the last recession in 1990/91. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said: "The results from today’s Roy Morgan late March employment and unemployment estimates show the value of timely data closely tracking the employment statuses of Australian workers. In this uncertain times it is vital for Governments and policy-makers dealing with the COVID-19 ‘fallout’ to have the most up-to-date data on the state of the Labour market to make the correct decisions".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Major hit, big job losses ahead: RBA

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Mar-20

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says the unemployment rate can be expected to rise in coming months, as the coronavirus is likely to result in "significant" job losses. However, he says the labour market should rebound quite fast if the virus’s outbreak in Australia can be contained. Lowe also said the virus and measures to combat its spread will have a "severe" impact on the economy, although he is hopeful that this will be temporary. Lowe has indicated that housing market activity is likely to be affected by the pandemic.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA