LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

Door not shut on extending jobless aid: PM

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-May-20

JP Morgan expects about one million Australians to have lost their jobs in April, lifting the unemployment rate to 8.5 per cent. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reiterated that at present the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme is still slated to be in place for six months. He adds that it could be extended or scaled back, depending on the pace at which the economy and the labour market recover from the pandemic. Official labour market data for April will be released on 14 May.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows 2.16 million Australians were unemployed (15.3% of the workforce) with an additional 1.32 million (9.4%) under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-May-20

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows that in total a massive 3.5 million (24.7%) Australians are now either unemployed or under-employed. This is 439,000 fewer than the 3.92 million (27.4%) during the last two weeks of March (March 20-31, 2020), immediately before the Federal Government’s JobKeeper program was announced. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 15.3% for April is now almost three times higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2020 of 5.2%. The ABS figure for March was based on interviews conducted in reference to early March (pre shut-downs) and did not include data related to the situation in late March (post shut-downs).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Wider impact of virus crisis becoming clearer

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 21 : 28-Apr-20

Roy Morgan has revealed that 10.5 million Australians have had their employment circumstances changed by the impact of COVID-19. This includes 3.8 million people who have had their work hours cut, while 670,000 people have been made redundant. Roy Morgan found that three-quarters of sole traders have been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, but that 46 per cent of people who work for entities with over 1,000 employees have not had their employment affected in some manner by the crisis. Agriculture, transport and storage, and wholesale trade are among the sectors least impacted by the crisis, according to Roy Morgan.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Jobless blow will be worst since 1930s

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 20-Apr-20

A report from the Grattan Institute has forecast that jobs in the hospitality, arts and recreation, retail and education sectors will be hardest hit by the coronavirus and the measures that have been deployed to contain it. The public policy think tank estimates that 14-26 per cent of Australian workers will soon be out of work, or up to 3.4 million people. In addition, the Grattan Institute warns that the JobKeeper scheme will not prevent the unemployment rate from rising to 10-15 per cent.

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GRATTAN INSTITUTE

ABS March unemployment figures are misleading – because second half of March ignored!

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-20

The ABS yesterday, finally, released their March unemployment estimates – actually the first half of March. The ABS March employment estimates show employment increasing by 6,000 and unemployment virtually unchanged at 5.2%, up only 0.1% from February – both very misleading and should never have been released in their current form. On April 8, 2020 Roy Morgan released accurate real employment and unemployment estimates for the whole of March – pre and post COVID-19 lock-down. Roy Morgan’s unemployment estimate pre the COVID-19 lock-down was 7.3%, essentially unchanged on February. However, Roy Morgan’s late March unemployment estimates showed the Government’s COVID-19 lockdown response resulted in an extra 1.4 million Australians becoming unemployed in a matter of two weeks, leading to unemployment of 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increasing 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%) in the second half of March. This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – depression numbers! (Following is a link to full details on Roy Morgan’s March employment and under-employment estimates: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8363-roy-morgan-unemployment-and-under-employment-march-2020-202004080900)

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Extra 1.4 million Australians out of work in wake of COVID-19 pandemic – 3.92 million (27.4% of workforce) now unemployed or under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-20

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate for the second half of March jumped a staggering 1.4 million to 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increased 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%). This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – far more Australians looking for work than was the case during the last recession in 1990/91. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said: "The results from today’s Roy Morgan late March employment and unemployment estimates show the value of timely data closely tracking the employment statuses of Australian workers. In this uncertain times it is vital for Governments and policy-makers dealing with the COVID-19 ‘fallout’ to have the most up-to-date data on the state of the Labour market to make the correct decisions".

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Major hit, big job losses ahead: RBA

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Mar-20

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says the unemployment rate can be expected to rise in coming months, as the coronavirus is likely to result in "significant" job losses. However, he says the labour market should rebound quite fast if the virus’s outbreak in Australia can be contained. Lowe also said the virus and measures to combat its spread will have a "severe" impact on the economy, although he is hopeful that this will be temporary. Lowe has indicated that housing market activity is likely to be affected by the pandemic.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Over 2.4 million Australians looking for work following summer of bushfires along Australia’s east coast

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Mar-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,913,000 Australians were employed in February 2020, up 739,000 from a year ago. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 514,000 over the last year (to 8,673,000), and an increase of 225,000 in part-time employment (to 4,105,000). The figures also show that 1,174,000 Australians (8.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in February, down 118,000 on a year ago, with the unemployment rate falling 1.3%. An additional 1,269,000 Australians (9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 113,000 (or 0.4%) over the last year. In total, 2,443,000 Australians (17.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, down 5,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.3% for February is higher than the current ABS estimate for January of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that more Australians are working than ever before and 67.1% of Australians of working age are now in the workforce – up 2% points on a year ago and a two-and-a-half year high.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Part time and casual jobs fuelling the growth of under-employment

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Original article by
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 27-Feb-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine appeared on the ABC’s ‘7.30’ program on 26 February to discuss the issue of under-employment in Australia. Research by Roy Morgan shows that 8.7 per cent of the workforce is under-employed, compared with the official ABS figure of 8.5 per cent. Roy Morgan estimates that almost 1.2 million Australians were under-employed in 2019, an increase of nearly 450,000 since 2005. Levine says part-time jobs are growing at a faster rate than full-time jobs, and the economy would benefit from people having extra work if they wanted it. The ABS counts a person as being employed if they work for just one hour a week.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION

Roy Morgan January unemployment predicted the increase seen yesterday with the ABS results

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-20

The Roy Morgan January unemployment and under-employment result released earlier this week showed an increase in real unemployment to 9.7% in January with over 1.36 million Australians now unemployed (an increase of 1% point from December) and a further 1.23 million (8.7% of the workforce) now under-employed – and now the ABS results have confirmed the upward trend in unemployment. The ABS figures show seasonally adjusted unemployment of 5.3% in January, up 0.2% points from December with 726,000 Australians now looking for a job according to the ABS. The ABS figures show an additional 8.6% of Australians are now under-employed. The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show over 2.5 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) are now looking for a job or looking for more work while the ABS claims a significantly lower figure of around 1.9 million (13.9%). These results suggest the ABS is continuing to under-estimate the level of true workforce labour under-utilisation in Australia.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS