LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

RBA flags another rate cut if jobs market deteriorates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 2 : 17-Jul-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia indicated in the minutes of its monthly board meeting that there is likely to be spare capacity in the labour market for some time, while jobs growth is likely to ‘moderate’. Labour market data for June will be released on 18 July, and the official unemployment rate is expected to be steady at 5.2 per cent. The employment and inflation outlook is likely to influence the timing of further interest rate cuts; some economists say the RBA may wait to gauge the impact of the cuts in June and July before further easing monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Real unemployment at 9.2% in June as tax cuts set to boost economy

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,363,000 Australians were employed in June 2019, up 118,000 over the past year. The rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 479,000 over the last year (to 8,279,000); however, part-time employment has declined by 361,000 (to 4,084,000). The figures also show that 1,254,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were unemployed in June, up 83,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%. An additional 1,275,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 27,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,529,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in June, an increase of 56,000 in a year (up 0.2%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for June is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for May 2019 of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says many commentators are expressing concern about the state of the Australian economy; however, with significant income tax cuts being legislated by the new Government and back-to-back interest rate cuts by the RBA in June and July, there is an increasing amount of stimulus in the Australian economy to support businesses and therefore increase employment opportunities.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Unemployment rate needs to be 4pc to get wages up: Labor

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 28-Jun-19

Shadow assistant treasurer Andrew Leigh will use a speech on 28 June to argue the case for Australia’s full employment target to be lowered. The Reserve Bank of Australia has downwardly revised its estimate of full employment from 5.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent over the last few years, but Leigh will suggest that an employment rate of four per cent is "eminently achievable". He will state that this would result in an extra 160,000 Australians being employed. He says that creating jobs is the best way to boost wages growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS

Public service growth hurting the economy

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 26-Jun-19

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has released a report which shows that the public sector accounted for 85 per cent of jobs that were created in the year to May 2019. CBA economist Gareth Aird notes that a rise in public sector employment tends to result in a short-term increase in demand in the economy, but it does little to boost productivity. Aird adds that the non-productive nature of most public sector work is a key reason why GDP growth is slowing while jobs growth is strong.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA warns rates may go lower to drive jobs

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 13-Jun-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia recently downwardly revised its estimate of full employment from 5.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent. Assistant governor Luci Ellis has indicated that the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment may in fact be as low as 3.5 per cent, adding that the central bank may have to keep reducing the cash rate until the unemployment rate reaches this level. Australia’s official unemployment rate is currently about five per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Real unemployment at 10.3% as L-NP starts new term in Government

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 11,926,000 Australians were employed in May 2019, down 219,0000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 375,000 over the past year (to 3,911,000); full-time employment was up by 156,000 (to 8,015,000). The figures also show that 1,369,000 Australians (10.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in May, up 53,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%. An additional 1,223,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 28,000 in a year (down 0.1%). In total, 2,592,000 Australians (19.5% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May, an increase of 25,000 in a year (up 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.3% for May is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2019 of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the first priority for the re-elected Coalition government is to pass the promised income tax cuts as soon as Parliament resumes. Other legislative priorities should include tackling the ‘cash economy’ which undermines law-abiding businesses, reducing the penalty rates for businesses opening on weekends and public holidays, and cutting the regulatory ‘red tape’ that discourages businesses from hiring new workers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs up, jobless up, pose RBA dilemma

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-May-19

Official figures show that the Australian economy added a higher-than-expected 28,400 jobs in April, with a net gain of 34,700 part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,300 full-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 per cent, while the labour force participation rate rose from 65.7 per cent to a record 65.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate rose to 8.3 per cent and the underutilisation rate rose to 13.7 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates in June.

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AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LENDLEASE GROUP – ASX LLC

Over 600,000 jobs created since last election, but is it enough for the L-NP?

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

Roy Morgan real Australian unemployment is 8.9% in April, down 2% in a month, and following the same pattern seen during the last Federal Election when unemployment declined by 1.1% during the campaign before rebounding. There were 1.2 million Australians unemployed in April and a further 1.18 million Australians under-employed – a total of 2.38 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work (17.7% of the workforce). Full-time employment was 8.03 million, up nearly 350,000 since the last election, while part-time employment was 4.22 million (up 260,000). Although over 600,000 jobs have been created since the last Federal Election in July 2016, total unemployment and under-employment remains stuck well above 2 million people.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Bellwether sectors shed thousands of workers

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 23 & 31 : 10-May-19

Analysis by JP Morgan shows that nearly 140,000 jobs were lost in Australia’s manufacturing, construction and retail sectors in the first three months of 2019. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that so-called bellwether sectors are the most closely linked to the economic cycle. He says rising job losses in these sectors will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. George Tharenou of UBS says GDP growth is a more reliable indicator of the health of the economy than monthly employment data.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

RBA sets jobless test for rate cut

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 8-May-19

The Reserve Bank has downgraded its 2019 growth forecast for the Australian economy from three per cent to around 2.75 per cent. The central bank indicated on 7 May that a "further improvement" in the labour market will be necessary to lift inflation to its target range. It has also flagged the prospect of an interest rate cut if the employment rate does not fall below five per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank says the central bank will almost certainly reduce the cash rate if there is even a modest rise in unemployment.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY