LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

ALP vow: permanent work for casuals

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Apr-19

Labor has doubled down on the Coalition’s commitment to legislate to allow casual workers to apply to become permanent employees after 12 months of regular and ongoing work with the same employer. Labor will also amend the Fair Work Act to allow such workers to legally challenge a refusal of their request to become a permanent employee. More than 50 per cent of Australia’s 2.6 million casual employees have worked for the same employer for at least 12 months.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

Real unemployment jumps to 10.9% as Australians prepare to vote in election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,158,000 Australians were employed in March 2019, down 216,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 203,000 over the past year (to 4,228,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, down by 13,000 (to 7,930,000). The figures also show that 1,491,000 Australians (10.9% of the workforce) were unemployed in March, up 281,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 2%. In addition, 1,321,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 41,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, a record high 2,812,000 Australians (20.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March, an increase of 240,000 in a year (up 1.7%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.9% for March is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for February of 4.9%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the disappointing employment figures suggest the real problem facing the Morrison Government has been an inability to solve Australia’s continuing problem of high unemployment and under-employment. Roy Morgan has consistently shown over 2 million Australians looking for work (unemployed) or looking for more work (under-employed) since the L-NP Government was first elected in September 2013 and that problem remains a large one to this day.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

White Collar wipeout

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 27 : 17-Apr-19

Media reports have suggested that the Commonwealth Bank and ANZ are looking to retrench up to 25 per cent of their staff. Rival banks will also need to reduce wage costs in order to remain competitive. Meanwhile, new technologies such as artificial intelligence and block chain will result in much bigger job cuts over the next decade, and in a wide range of sectors. The public service offers the greatest potential for major staff cuts, but unions will resist any such move. With fewer job opportunities in the future, more Australians will need to start their own business; in this context, the federal government’s move to establish a small business tax tribunal that is independent of the Australian Taxation Office is to be welcomed.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ACTU

Jobless fall gives RBA breathing room

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 22-Mar-19

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from five per cent to 4.9 per cent in February, with a net gain of 4,600 jobs for the month. The economy shed 7,300 full-time jobs in February, although this was offset by the creation of 11,900 part-time positions. The participation rate and the underutilisation rate both eased slightly, to 65.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent respectively. Economists say the unemployment rate’s fall to an eight-year low will reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK

Hold on rates due to strong jobs data

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 20-Mar-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank expects the labour market to remain strong, negating the need for any change to the cash rate in the near-term. The Reserve Bank also maintained its guidance for GDP growth of about three per cent in 2019, although the board meeting was held the day before the release of data showing GDP growth of just 0.2 per cent for the December 2018 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Employment growth stalls as overall employment down on a year ago

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,174,000 Australians were employed in February 2019, down 54,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a decrease in part-time employment of 60,000 (to 4,015,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, up by 6,000 to 8,159,000. The figures also show that 1,292,000 Australians (9.6% of the workforce) were unemployed in February, down 18,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1%. In addition, 1,156,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 54,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,448,000 Australians (18.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, a decrease of 72,000 in a year (down 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.6% for February is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for January of 5.0% although Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 8.6% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.1%. Meanwhile, the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends of March 2/3 & 9/10 with a representative cross-section of 1,603 electors shows the ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP’s lead amongst women is even stronger with women supporting the ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% while men also support the ALP but to a lesser degree: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine comments on the latest employment data

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-19

The lack of jobs growth over the last year will be a significant concern for the Federal Government, which is due to seek re-election at a Federal election expected in mid-May. As well as the lack of employment growth over the past year the latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence rating for February of only 105.6 – the lowest since August 2015 – indicates Australia’s businesses are waiting for the political uncertainty to clear in a few months’ time. The consecutive ratings below 110 are the slowest start to a year for Business Confidence since the index began. The latest Australian GDP figures showed the economy growing by only 0.2% in the December 2018 quarter, the slowest rate of growth for over two years since a quarterly contraction of 0.5% in the September 2016 quarter. Given the political uncertainty facing Australia over the next two months, with a New South Wales election later in March before the Federal election expected in mid-May, the prospects for the economy and employment growth in the short-term appear to be limited. However, the Federal Government has a chance to ‘reboot the economy’ with a stimulative Federal Budget due to be delivered on the first Tuesday in April. The Budget is also the Morrison Government’s last chance to save their chances of re-election as the Roy Morgan Poll, and other polls, have consistently shown the ALP heading towards an easy election victory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Permaflexi plan a ruse to reduce pay, unions war

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Original article by Dana McCauley
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 12 : 1-Mar-19

Health Services Union secretary Lloyd Williams has criticised a push by employers for the Fair Work Commission to recognise a new category of employment. So-called ‘permaflexi’ workers would be paid a 10 per cent loading in exchange for flexible rostering, while they would also receive sick leave and annual leave entitlements. The NSW Business Chamber’s application states that workers who are hired under a "flexible ongoing employment" arrangement would have a minimum of 1-3 hours’ work per week.

CORPORATES
HEALTH SERVICES UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, NSW BUSINESS CHAMBER LIMITED, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN SERVICES UNION, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Wage rises to arrest falling growth outlooks

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Original article by Natasha Gillezeau, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 14-Feb-19

BIS Oxford Economics recently downgraded its GDP growth forecast to 2.2 per cent, but the firm does not expect the Hayne royal commission to have much impact on the economy. Alexandra Heath, the Reserve Bank’s head of economics, says the labour market was more resilient in 2018 than the central bank had expected, and it is likely to remain strong in 2019. She says this should in turn lead to a gradual increase in wages. She adds that the downturn in the housing market is unlikely to have much impact on economic growth or consumer spending.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

Record employment in January driven by increasing full-time jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Feb-19

A Roy Morgan survey shows that a record 12,397,000 Australians were employed in January 2019, up 161,000 over the past year. The increase in employment was driven by a solid increase in full-time employment of 212,000 (to 8,257,000); part-time employment was down 51,000 (to 4,140,000). The figures also show that 1,253,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were unemployed in January (up 34,000 on a year ago), and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%. In addition, 1,300,000 Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 71,000 in a year (down 0.7%). In total 2,553,000 Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in January, a decrease of 37,000 in a year (down 0.6%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for January is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for December 2018 of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that despite steady economic growth over the past few years, analysing the employment trends shows that over 2 million Australians have been unemployed or underemployed for over seven years.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS