LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

Unemployment unchanged at 9.4% in October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Nov-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,194,000 Australians were employed in October 2018, up 427,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by equivalent increases in full-time employment (which was up 173,000 to 7,887,000) and part-time employment (up 254,000 to 4,307,000). The figures also show that 1,265,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in October, an increase of 39,000 on a year ago. In addition, 1,242,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, an increase of 134,000 in a year (up 0.7%). In total 2,507,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, an increase of 173,000 in a year (up 0.6%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for October remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for September of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the persistent high level of under-employment – which is up more than 130,000 from 1.1 million a year ago – is likely to emerge as a key election issue over the next few months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs figures catch up with economic reality

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 23-Oct-18

Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in September, but in reality the official jobless figure was merely moving into alignment with "shadow" labour market indicators. Macquarie Group economist Justin Fabo expects the unemployment rate to be just below five per cent at the end of 2019, while he estimates that a full employment rate in Australia equates to a jobless rate of about 4.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the majority of "shadow" indicators, including Roy Morgan’s household survey, point towards an inflection higher in the official jobless rate.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobless rate at lowest in seven years

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 19-Oct-18

Australia’s headline unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in September, while the trend rate was steady at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank had forecast that the jobless rate would fall to five per cent by the end of 2020, and the latest figures have prompted speculation that it may begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected. However, Craig James of the Commonwealth Bank does not expect it to take action while the official underemployment rate is 8.3 per cent. Meanwhile, Paul Dales of Capital Economics says a significant increase in wages may be dependent on the jobless rate falling to around four per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Job market dries up for low-skilled employees

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Original article by Anna Patty
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 18 : 18-Oct-18

Anglicare has released a report which notes that low-skilled entry-level jobs accounted for just 26,000 of the 185,662 vacancies that were advertised across Australia in May. The report adds that almost 111,000 people are competing for the limited number of entry-level jobs. This equates to an average of four people nationwide, although Anglicare notes that it is much higher in South Australia and Tasmania. Anglicare’s executive director Kasy Chambers says low-skilled, entry-level jobs are "slowly disappearing".

CORPORATES
ANGLICARE AUSTRALIA

Unemployment down to 9.4% in September off two-year high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Oct-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,164,000 Australians were employed in September, up 192,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by equivalent increases in full-time employment (which was up 97,000 to 7,694,000) and part-time employment (up 95,000 to a record 4,470,000). The figures also show that 1,256,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in September, an increase of 54,000 on a year ago (up 0.3%). In addition, 1,127,000 Australians (8.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 169,000 in a year (down 1.4%). In total 2,383,000 Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, a fall of 115,000 in a year (down 1.1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for September remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for August of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says total unemployment and under-employment in Australia has now exceeded 2 million for three straight years. As we have noted previously, the persistent high level of unemployment and under-employment is not because jobs aren’t being created, but because the workforce continues to grow at a faster rate than the growth in employment.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Headline jobless rate hits lowest in nearly six years

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 17-Aug-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent in July, to its lowest level since late 2012. More than 19,000 full-time jobs were created in July, offsetting the loss of 23,200 part-time positions, and the labour force participation rate eased from 65.7 per cent to 65.5 per cent. The official unemployment rate has been consistently around the 5.5 per cent level for much of the last year, but the Reserve Bank recently forecast that it will fall to five per cent in 2020.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Unemployment at 10% in July highest in nearly a year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,021,000 Australians were employed in July, up 167,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by growth in both full-time employment (which was up 66,000 to 7,765,000) and an even stronger increase in part-time employment (up 101,000 to 4,256,000). The figures also show that 1,329,000 Australians were unemployed (10% of the workforce) in July, an increase of 93,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,148,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 78,000 in a year (down 0.8%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10% for July remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for June 2018 of 5.4%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the increasing casualisation of the Australian workforce has strengthened in recent years with the rise of the so-called "gig" economy, but Foodora’s impeding exit from the Australian market shows that there are limits to this type of employment model when regulatory and competition considerations are taken into account. Foodora’s exit also signifies how important it is for governments to create sensible industrial relations laws that encourage employers to take on new workers rather than penalise employers looking to grow their business.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs boom raises stakes for RBA

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 20-Jul-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate was steady at 5.4 per cent in June, with the economy adding a higher-than-expected 50,900 jobs. This comprised 41,200 full-time and 9,700 part-time jobs. The data prompted a rebound in the Australian dollar on 19 July, while it may put pressure on the Reserve Bank to move more quickly to tighten monetary policy. The trend jobless rate was last at its current level in November 2012, when the cash rate was 3.25 per cent, compared with 1.5 per cent at present.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TD SECURITIES, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Unemployment drops to 8.7% in June, lowest since 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,245,000 Australians were employed in June 2018, down 85,000 over the last year. The fall was driven by a drop in full-time employment, which was down 300,000 to 7,800,000; part-time employment increased by 215,000 to 4,445,000. The figures also show that 1,171,000 Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) in June, a decrease of 29,000 (down 0.2%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,302,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 143,000 in a year (down 1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% for June remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for May of 5.4%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that over 2.4 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work in June explains why wage growth remains at record lows. Improving wage growth and the performance of the Australian economy is as simple as designing policies that engage these under-utilised workers and encourage employers to offer more jobs, and more hours, to Australians who want more work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

RBA to keep interest rates on hold until 2020: Macquarie

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 22-Jun-18

Macquarie Group economists Ric Deverell and Justin Fabo forecast that Australia’s unemployment rate will not fall below five per cent until 2020. They warn that "persistent" spare capacity in the economy will ensure that wages growth remains subdued in the near-term. As a result, they do not expect the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy until at least 2020. However, they note that a number of domestic and international factors could affect the timing of an interest rate rise.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG