LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

Over 3 million Australians were either unemployed (1.54 million) or under-employed (1.58 million) in October – highest for three years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Nov-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 22,000 to 1,542,000 (9.9% of the workforce, down 0.3%) in October. However, underemployment rose by 248,000 to a record high of 1,577,000 (10.2% of the workforce). A total of 3.12 million Australians (20.1% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in October, the highest figure since October 2020. Meanwhile, employment rose by 204,000 to a new record high of 13,959,000 in October. The increase was due to a rise in both full-time employment (up 46,000 to 9,009,000) and a large increase in part-time employment (up 158,000 to a new record high of 4,950,000). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.9% for October is almost triple the ABS estimate of 3.6% for September, but it is almost identical to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Economists rip into Labor’s white paper

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 27-Sep-23

The federal government’s employment white paper is continuing to attract scrutiny from economists and the Opposition. Labour economist Mark Wooden says the white paper lacks substantive measures to meet the government’s stated goal of making the economy more "productive, dynamic and competitive". The Centre for Independent Studies’ chief economist Peter Tulip doubts that the government’s policies will reduce the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, adding that Labor’s industrial relations reforms may increase the NAIRU. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor in turn says the government should focus on policies that result in low inflation and low unemployment.

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THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Business alarmed at Labor’s work goal

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Original article by Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 4 : 26-Sep-23

The federal government has attracted criticism over its employment white paper’s revised definition of ‘full employment’. The government’s goal is for ‘everyone who wants a job to be able to find one without searching for too long’. Treasurer Jim Chalmers say the technical definition of full employment – the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, which is used by the Reserve Bank – is distinct but complementary to the government’s objective. However, Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO Andrew McKellar contends that having dual definitions for full employment could undermine the RBA’s efforts to restore inflation to its target range. The white paper estimates that about 2.8 million people are either unemployed and looking for work or underemployed and seeking more work.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

Labor gets to work on jobs plan

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Sep-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers say the federal government’s employment white paper will outline Labor’s vision for a more "dynamic and inclusive labour market". The white paper to be released on Monday will outline five key objectives, including sustained full employment, productivity growth and sustainable wage growth. The ACTU used its submission to the white paper to call for a target of zero involuntary unemployment. The terms of reference for the employment white paper were released following the jobs and skills summit in 2022.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS, ACTU

RBA warns job market may be about to sour

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Original article by Michael Read, Tess Bennett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Aug-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for August show that it considered increasing the cash rate to 4.35 per cent. However, indications that the jobs market may at a "turning point" are among the reasons why the board opted for a second successive monthly pause. The RBA cited factors such as a small rise in the official underemployment rate, a fall in hiring intentions and improved labour availability as signs that the jobs boom may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, economists say weaker-than-expected wages growth will strengthen the case for the cash rate to remain on hold for an extended period.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Labor mulls IR relief amid employer fury

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Original article by Ewin Hannan, Glen Norris
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 26-Jul-23

Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke has indicated that the federal government may be open to exempting small businesses from its plans to allow casual workers to switch to permanent employment after six months in a job. Independent senator Jacqui Lambie has expressed concern about the potential impact of the casual labour reforms on small businesses, noting that many are already struggling in the wake of the pandemic, natural disasters and the cost-of-living crisis. Harvey Norman chairman Gerry Harvey contends that the proposed reforms do not make sense, as businesses may offset their increased costs by downsizing their workforce. He adds that most of the retailer’s casual staff prefer the increased flexibility compared with permanent employment.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN

Casual employment at 10-year low

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Original article by Stephen Lunn
The Australian – Page: 4 : 17-Jul-23

The Australian Industry Group has released a report which shows that the proportion of casual employees in the workforce has fallen to a decade-low of just 22.1 per cent. The Ai Group says the report refutes the union movement’s claim that the Australian workforce is becoming increasingly casualised, noting that the proportion of casual workers had remained relatively steady at between 23.5 per cent and 25.5 per cent in the years immediately prior to the pandemic. The report also notes that casual work is skewed toward younger Australians.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP

Australian unemployment jumped to 10.3% in June – the highest since January 2023 (10.7%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed rose by 314,000 to 1,572,000 (10.3% of the workforce) in June. However, underemployment fell 50,000 to 1,415,000 (9.3% of the workforce, down 0.5% points). A total of 2.99 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in June, up by 264,000 from May. Meanwhile, employment fell by 72,000 to 13,635,000 in June. The drop was due to a fall in part-time employment (down 167,000 to 4,697,000), while full-time employment was up 94,000 to 8,937,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 10.3% for June is almost triple the ABS estimate of 3.6% for May and is closer to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Real unemployment in June up 1.9% to 10.3%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jun-23

In June Roy Morgan shows ‘real unemployment’ jumped 1.9% to 10.3% – reversing a series of recent drops. This is the highest ‘real unemployment’ has been since January. In contrast, under-employment was down by 0.5% to 9.3% with fewer people employed part-time in June. Overall though this mean a large rise in combined unemployment and under-employment, up 1.4% to 19.6% of the workforce (2.99 million Australians) – again, this was the highest combined figure since January. These monthly movements take place within the broader context of longer-term trends in the Australian workforce – the total number of people employed or looking for work. The Australian workforce has grown rapidly over the last year. The annual increase in the working aged Australian population hit a record in the year to June 2023 – up by 632,000 to 21.9 million. This surge in the population helped drive the workforce up by 715,000 to over 15.2 million – the second largest annual increase on record. These large increases mean that employment growth has continued over the last year, despite the falls we see in the month of June.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment drops to 8.4% in May – the lowest since September 2022 (8.1%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-23

In May unemployment dropped 0.1% points to 8.4%, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment series data – the fourth straight monthly drop. Unemployment is now at its lowest since COVID-19 restrictions lifted in late 2022. However, there was a rise in under-employment in May, up 0.9% points to 9.8%, to its highest level this year. The rise in under-employment came as part-time employment increased to 4.86 million – a fourth straight month of increases. The rising cost of living, with high inflation and increasing interest rates, are leading to more Australians in part-time employment needing to work more hours to earn a sufficient income. These people in part-time employment looking for more hours are considered under-employed – now nearly 10% of the workforce. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.4% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.7% for April, and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.8%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED