LABOR MARKET – AUSTRALIA

Red-hot jobs market to push RBA harder on rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Roddan, Cecile Lefort, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 17-Jun-22

The latest labour force data has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy added about 60,000 jobs in May, well above market expectations of 25,000. The official unemployment rate was steady at 3.9 per cent, and the underemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage points to 5.7 per cent. There is now widespread consensus among economists that the RBA will increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in July, and some economists anticipate that this will be followed by 50 basis point rises in both August and September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

200,000 migrant workers to return over seven months

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Elmas
The New Daily – Page: Online : 23-Nov-21

Australia will re-open its international borders to overseas students, skilled visa holders and working holiday makers, with Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews expecting that at least 200,000 migrant workers will arrive in Australia by July. Labour market economist Professor Jeff Borland contends that the return of migrant workers will have a "pronounced impact", and he says research shows that migrant workers are positive for the economy. However, he notes that they tend to be concentrated in certain industries, making it hard for existing workers in those sectors to secure better wages.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS

Australian unemployment increases to 9.2% in October – as over 12 million Australians are released from long lockdowns

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.32 million Australians were unemployed in October, up 55,000 on September, for an unemployment rate of 9.2%. Driving the increase was more people looking for part-time work (up 114,000 to 849,000) while there was a decrease in people looking for full-time work (down 59,000 to 471,000). Some 1.23 million Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, an increase of 64,000 (up 0.6% points) on September. In total, 2.55 million Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, an increase of 119,000 on September. Meanwhile, employment dropped 289,000 to 13,019,000 in October, driven by the decrease in part-time employment (down 379,000 to 4,281,000 – the lowest since August 2020). In contrast, full-time employment increased by 90,000 in October to 8,738,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% for October is over 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2021 of 4.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment plummets to 8.7% in September – as lockdowns of over half of Australia’s population continue

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Oct-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.27 million Australians were unemployed in September, down 97,000 on August, for an unemployment rate of 8.7%. Driving the fall was far fewer more people looking for part-time work (down 135,000 to 735,000) while there was an increase in people looking for full-time work (up 38,000 to 530,000). Some 1.16 million Australians (8.0% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, a drop of 12,000 (down 0.2% points) from August. In total, 2.43 million Australians (16.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, a drop of 108,000 on August. Overall, total unemployment and under-employment was at its lowest since early March 2020 (2.16 million) just prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, employment was up 267,000 to 13,308,000 in September, driven by an increase in part-time employment (up 273,000 to 4,660,000). In contrast, full-time employment was virtually unchanged at 8,648,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.7% for September is over 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for August 2021 of 4.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment drops to 9.5% in August – as lockdowns force contractions in key workforce estimates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Sep-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.36 million Australians were unemployed in August, down 60,000 on July, for an unemployment rate of 9.5%. Driving the fall was far fewer more people looking for full-time work (down 127,000 to 492,000) while there was an increase in people looking for part-time work (up 67,000 to 870,000). Some 1.18 million Australians (8.2% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, a drop of 159,000 (down 0.9% points) from July. In total, 2.54 million Australians (17.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in August, a drop of 220,000 on July. The drop was driven by the contracting workforce during lockdowns as both unemployment and under-employment fell from a month ago. Meanwhile, employment was down by 157,000 to 13,041,000 in August, including 8,654,000 workers employed full-time, a drop of 111,000 from July. There was also a decrease in part-time employment, down by 46,000 to 4,387,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.5% for August is nearly 5% points higher than the current ABS estimate for July 2021 of 4.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobless data hides the premiers’ recession

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Terry McCrann
Herald Sun – Page: 59 : 20-Aug-21

The latest ‘official’ unemployment data belies the fact that the Australian economy is already in a ‘second wave’ recession. The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show that the unemployment rate fell to a 12-year low of just 4.6 per cent in July. The more accurate and more meaningful data released by Roy Morgan two weeks ago had already shown that the real jobless rate in July was 9.7 per cent. Likewise, the Roy Morgan figures show that the underemployment rate is 9.1 per cent, compared with the ABS estimate of 8.3 per cent. Unlike the Roy Morgan data, the ABS figures cover only the first half of July, so they include Victoria’s fifth lockdown but not the current and already much longer one.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian employment dropped by 176,000 in July as all five mainland States experienced lockdowns

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.42 million Australians were unemployed in July, up 28,000 on June, for an unemployment rate of 9.7% (up 0.3% points). Some 1.33 million Australians were under-employed (up 77,000 on June), for an under-employment rate of 9.1% (up 0.6% points). In total, 2.76 million Australians (18.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July, an increase of 105,000 on June. The increase was driven by increases in both unemployment and under-employment. Meanwhile, employment was down by 176,000 to 13,198,000 in July, including 8,765,000 workers employed full-time, a drop of 61,000 from June. There was also a decrease in part-time employment, down by 115,000 to 4,433,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.7% for July is nearly 5% points higher than the current ABS estimate for June 2021 of 4.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

It’s a tricky path trying to steer between the prevailing greed and hysteria

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Terry McCrann
Sunday Herald Sun – Page: 50 & 51 : 8-Aug-21

Data from Roy Morgan shows that 28,000 Australians lost their jobs in July, amid the fifth lockdown in Victoria and the ongoing lockdown in New South Wales. Roy Morgan estimates that 1.4 million Australians were unemployed in July, while an addition 1.33 million were under-employed. These figures do not take into account the full impact of the NSW lockdown and the latest lockdowns in Victoria and Queensland. Meanwhile, official jobs data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for July will not be available for another two weeks, and will cover only the first two weeks of the month. The big question is whether state governments will continue to impose job-destroying lockdowns if the vaccination target of 70-80 per cent of Australians is reached and the nation is still recording new COVID-19 cases and deaths.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Unemployment and under-employment soar in Queensland during the pandemic but are relatively unchanged in NSW & Victoria

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-21

A special analysis of Roy Morgan’s latest unemployment estimates by State during the June 2021 quarter compared to the December 2019 quarter (prior to the pandemic), shows significant changes in two States. Queensland appears as the big ‘loser’ of the COVID-19 pandemic so far; total unemployment and under-employment is now at 23.5% of the workforce, an increase of 6.6% points since the December 2019 quarter – and now clearly higher than any other State. In contrast, South Australia has handled the pandemic better than any other state on the employment front, with total unemployment and under-employment now at 17.4% of the workforce and below the national average – a decline of 6.5% points on the December 2019 quarter. South Australia has had fewer days in lockdown of any State and is the only mainland State not to experience a lockdown so far during 2021. However, despite spending more time in lockdown than the other States, the lowest unemployment and under-employment is again to be found in the two largest States. New South Wales had the lowest unemployment and under-employment of any State at 16.5% of the workforce in the June 2021quarter, an increase of 1.3% points, while Victoria was second at 17.1% (up 0.1% points). down 0.4% points on late 2019.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment drops to 9.4% in June – before three States enforce COVID lockdowns

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.39 million Australians were unemployed in June, down 99,000 on May, for an unemployment rate of 9.4%. The workforce in June was 14,768,000 – comprised of 13,374,000 employed Australians (an increase of 305,000) and 1,394,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 99,000). In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.26 million Australians (8.5% of the workforce) were underemployed – working part-time but looking for more work. This was unchanged from May. In total, 2.65 million Australians (17.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or underemployed in June, a drop of 98,000 on May. The decrease was driven by the fall in unemployment. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.4% for June is more than 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for May 2021 of 5.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS