MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Retail slump won’t stop RBA rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Feb-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 3.9 per cent in December. This followed 11 consecutive months of growth. Monthly sales fell by $1.4bn to $34.4bn in seasonally adjusted terms in December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the downturn in retail sales reflects the impact of rising interest rates on household budgets. However, some economists have downplayed the significance of the latest retail data, arguing that the Black Friday sales in late November affected the seasonally-adjusted figures. The Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australia’s softening inflation unlikely to spell an end to interest rate hikes

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Original article by Peter Hannam
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 25-Jan-23

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release inflation data for the December quarter on Wednesday. Many economists expect the annual headline inflation rate to have peaked at 7.5 per cent in the quarter, compared with 7.3 per cent in the previous three months. The trimmed mean is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of inflation; the general consensus of economists is that this will be 6.4 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 6.1 per cent in the previous quarter. However, the ANZ Bank expects a headline inflation rate of 7.7 per cent and a trimmed mean of 6.7 per cent. The bank contends that the RBA is likely to increase the cash rate three times by May, given that both measures will still be well above its target range of 2-3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA’s ultra-low rate loans barely boosted lending

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 14-Dec-22

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s approach to monetary policy during the COVID-19 pandemic is continuing to attract scrutiny. RBA analysts have undertaken a review of the central bank’s Term Funding Facility, which offered ultra-low interest loans to banks with the aim of providing support to businesses during the pandemic-induced economic downturn. The analysts concluded that there was little evidence that the TFF had increased overall lending, particularly to the small and medium enterprise sector.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation tipped to rise to highest level in 32 years

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Original article by Emma Rapaport
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 29-Nov-22

The latest monthly inflation data will be released on Wednesday. Catherine Birch from the ANZ Bank expects the data to show that the headline inflation rate rose from 7.3 per cent in September to 7.8 per cent in October. Birch also forecasts that the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of trimmed mean inflation will rise from 5.4 per cent to 5.9 per cent. The ANZ expects the quarterly headline inflation rate to peak at eight per cent in the final three months of 2022 and remain above the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent until the end of 2024. It also anticipates that the Reserve Bank will begin to ease monetary policy in November 2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NZ Reserve Bank nails our RBA’s failure

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Herald Sun – Page: 49 : 24-Nov-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has stated that wage outcomes must be consistent with the return of inflation to the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Increasing wages in line with the inflation rate would inevitably result in large-scale job losses and further boost inflation. Allowing inflation to remain well above the target range for too long would also heighten the risk of a wage-price spiral. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recognises these risks; its cash rate was increased by 75 basis points on Wednesday, and it seriously considered a one per cent increase. In contrast, the RBA increased the cash rate by just 25 basis points in November, despite the inflation rate in both countries being nearly identical. NZ’s cash rate is now 4.25 per cent, but Australia’s cash rate will still be just 3.1 per cent if – as expected – the RBA announces a 25 basis point increase in December.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

Economists tip supersized Cup day rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 28-Oct-22

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in November, in response to the latest inflation data. Westpac now anticipates that official interest rates will peak at 3.85 per cent, a view shared by the Commonwealth Bank. National Australia Bank and ANZ in turn expect interest rates to peak at 3.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point increase in November.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

No doubt interest rates will continue to climb: RBA

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 19-Oct-22

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Michele Bullock says inflation is still too high and further rises in the cash rate will be necessary in order to return it to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Bullock has told the Australian Finance Industry Association’s annual conference that the RBA believes that it can reduce the inflation rate while avoiding a recession and preserving most of the jobs that have been created in recent times. Meanwhile, the minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting show that the board was of the view that slowing the pace of rate rises in October will give it time to assess incoming economic data.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Chalmers warns of rates-driven inflation

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Oct-22

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the world is facing a "substantial" global economic downturn, although he adds that the federal government’s first Budget on 25 October will not forecast a recession in Australia. Chalmers has also warned that the widening gap between interest rates in Australia and the US could boost inflation by putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar and making imports more expensive. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund now expects the Australian economy to grow by just 1.9 per cent in 2023; it had previously forecast growth of 2.2 per cent. The IMF has also downgraded its global growth forecast.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

RBA slows its rate pace from breakneck to merely galloping

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-Oct-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has indicated that further interest rises are likely as the central bank seeks to bring inflation under control. The RBA defied the expectations of most economists and investors by increasing the cash rate by just 25 basis points on Tuesday, lifting it to 2.6 per cent. The RBA has become the first major central bank to scale back the size of interest rate increases in the current monetary policy tightening cycle, having increased the cash rate by 50 basis points at each of its previous four monthly board meetings. Australia’s four major banks have increased their variable mortgage interest rates by 25 basis points in line with the cash rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

October rate raise could be final straw for lower income spenders

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Original article by Emma Koehn
Brisbane Times – Page: Online : 4-Oct-22

Low-income households will come under further pressure if the Reserve Bank of Australia increases the cash rate by another 50 basis points on Tuesday. The latest quarterly consumer survey from UBS shows that low income earners have an "outright negative" financial outlook, although wealthy Australians are expected to keep spending. Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra notes that the full impact of the recent interest rate increases have yet to flow through the economy, adding that retail sales could soften in coming months.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION