MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Recovery in doubt as Aussie dollar surges

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 1-Nov-19

The Australian dollar reached a three-month high of $US0.693 in local trading on 31 October, in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s third interest rate cut in 2019. Financial markets have in turn downgraded the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia reducing the cash rate again before the end of the year. The Australian dollar gained 3.3 per cent in October, including a gain of 1.6 per cent in the last five trading sessions. RBA board member Ian Harper argues that a strong currency is not desirable at present, given weak economic growth and less than full employment.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

CPI cools further rate cut chances

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 31-Oct-19

Official data shows that the consumer price index rose 0.5 per cent during the September quarter and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. Trimmed mean inflation was 0.4 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent for the year to September. With the inflation rate remaining below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent for a 15th consecutive quarter, the cash rate now seems likely to stay unchanged at 0.75 per cent for the rest of the year. Craig James of CommSec says the three interest rate cuts in 2019 have spooked consumers.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

RBA urges boards: cut hurdle rates

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 30-Oct-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has used a speech in Canberra to argue that businesses should reduce their return hurdle rates on new investments in response to historically low interest rates. He contends that many business investments that did not make sense commercially when interest rates were much higher should now proceed. Lowe also emphasised that negative interest rates are unlikely in Australia.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

No option for savers as deposits slashed

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 29-Oct-19

The Commonwealth Bank’s term deposit interest rates are now well below the official inflation rate. The banking major has cut its term deposit rates by a much higher margin than the 75-basis point reduction in the cash rate so far in 2019. InfoChoice CEO Vadim Taube says savers need to look beyond the four major banks for term deposits that offer above-inflation interest rates. Meanwhile, Liberal MP Tim Wilson says the Reserve Bank should be wary of further easing monetary policy until the impact of the recent series of official interest cuts can be determined.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, INFOCHOICE LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Goode pushes for RBA rethink

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 28-Oct-19

Former ANZ Bank chairman Charles Goode has urged Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to work with the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its inflation target to as low as one per cent. Goode also believes that the Australian Securities & Investment Commission’s responsible lending rules are restricting lending, and he doubts that people like Frank Lowy and Harry Triguboff would have been able to establish their property businesses if the current responsible lending rules had been around in the post-World War II years. Goode says having a lower inflation target would end the RBA’s obsession with reducing interest rates to meet what he argues are outdated inflation targets.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Monetary policy beats fiscal stimulus

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 24-Oct-19

Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy is upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy. He has told the Senate estimates committee that the economy is growing ‘modestly’ and it should continue to strengthen. Kennedy also contended that monetary policy is still a better option for boosting economic growth than fiscal stimulus. He also stressed the need for structural reform and an increase in labour productivity.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. SENATE STANDING COMMITTEE ON ECONOMICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

QE tipped as rate cuts lose impact

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 22-Oct-19

A number of economists now say the Reserve Bank of Australia could implement unconventional monetary policy measures in 2020. They include Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans, who warns that quantitative easing may be necessary if the cash rate fall below 0.5 per cent. Michael Knox of Morgans Financial, Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets and Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics have also flagged the prospect of quantitative easing. Financial markets have fully priced in a rate cut to 0.5 per cent by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Cup day rate cut less likely on minutes

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Oct-19

Financial markets have priced in a 36 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate in November, following the release of the minutes from the central bank’s October board meeting. Amongst other things, board members expressed concern about the impact of historically low interest rates on savers and the housing market. The general consensus of economists is that the cash rate will remain on hold until February.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Credit raters circle wagons around banks

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Original article by James Eyers, James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 14 : 10-Oct-19

Australia’s banks are under growing scrutiny over their failure to reduce their mortgage interest rates by 0.25 per cent in line with the latest official interest rate cut. However, S&P Global Ratings says banks’ profits and capital buffers may be adversely affected if they yield to political pressure and match the Reserve Bank’s rate cut. S&P adds that this could in turn prompt a review of the banking sector’s credit rating. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are also supportive of the banks’ decision to withhold part of the official interest rate cut.

CORPORATES
S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IBISWORLD PTY LTD, COPLEY FUND RESEARCH, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ANZ boss calls for QE summit

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Original article by Tony Boyd, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 22 : 10-Oct-19

The growing prospect of negative interest rates and unconventional policy measures such as quantitative easing has prompted ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott to propose holding a summit on the issue. He says it should include representatives from the major banks, regional banks, industry regulators, the Treasury and the Reserve Bank. Elliott says that amongst other things, the summit could discuss issues such as the broader economic implications of QE and the role of banks in the economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS