MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Jobless fall gives RBA breathing room

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 22-Mar-19

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from five per cent to 4.9 per cent in February, with a net gain of 4,600 jobs for the month. The economy shed 7,300 full-time jobs in February, although this was offset by the creation of 11,900 part-time positions. The participation rate and the underutilisation rate both eased slightly, to 65.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent respectively. Economists say the unemployment rate’s fall to an eight-year low will reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK

Hold on rates due to strong jobs data

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 20-Mar-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank expects the labour market to remain strong, negating the need for any change to the cash rate in the near-term. The Reserve Bank also maintained its guidance for GDP growth of about three per cent in 2019, although the board meeting was held the day before the release of data showing GDP growth of just 0.2 per cent for the December 2018 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Cash rate could fall below 1pc, UBS says

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 19-Mar-19

George Tharenou of UBS says the Reserve Bank of Australia should immediately reduce the cash rate by 50 basis points to one per cent, given the state of the economy and the housing market. Tharenou adds that the central bank should also signal that it is prepared to cut official interest rates even further in order to avoid a market shock later on. He has also not ruled out measures such as quantitative easing. Tharenou expects rate cuts in July and August, although he says weak labour market data could force its hand earlier.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

ANZ ditches forecast for RBA rate increases

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 14-Mar-19

The ANZ Bank has scaled back its expectations for official interest rate rises in the near-term, forecasting that the cash rate will remain at 1.5 per cent until 2021. ANZ had previously expected two increases in the cash rate during 2020. ANZ’s David Plank says economic indicators other than GDP growth need to be taken into account when forecasting monetary policy, including labour market data. He adds that the Reserve Bank could act quickly to reduce the cash rate if signs of weakness in the labour market emerge.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK HEALTH SOCIETY LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Rate cuts, not supply, the key to house prices

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 12-Mar-19

Reserve Bank of Australia analysts Trent Saunders and Peter Tulip have concluded that monetary policy has the biggest impact on house prices and the level of construction activity. They argue that historically low interest rates have been the major driver of rising house prices in recent years, while factors such as construction costs and population growth have had a smaller impact. In contrast, RBA governor Philip Lowe recently suggested that housing supply has been the major influence on prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Dollar dives on expected cut to RBA cash rate

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 7-Mar-19

The Australian dollar fell to a two-month low in local trading on 6 March, in response to the latest GDP data, while the money market has now fully priced in an official interest cut by October. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has told a business summit that the central bank still has the flexibility to raise or lower the cash rate as required. He also said the downturn in house prices is unlikely to affect economic growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

RBA could jump rates gun: UBS

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 28 : 26-Feb-19

UBS still expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate in November 2019 and February 2020. However, UBS has warned that there is potential for monetary policy to be eased sooner if domestic and global conditions justify such a move. These include a further downturn in house prices and a rise in the unemployment rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Evans’ rate cut talk turns focus on RBA stance

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 22-Feb-19

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans now expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate twice in 2019, in August and November. His forecast is based on expectations that economic growth will slow to 2.2 per cent in 2019 and 2020, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.5 per cent in the second half of 2019. Evans had previously expected official interest rates to remain on hold for the next two years.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Gillespie predicts RBA will trim rates as house prices fall

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Original article by Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 21-Feb-19

Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital estimates that there is a 30 per chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates in April. In contrast, financial markets are currently pricing in a six per cent chance of a rate cut. Gillespie expects a further downturn in house prices in the near-term, which may prompt the central bank to ease monetary policy prior to the federal election. The RBA adopted a more dovish tone on interest rates at its February meeting, after signalling in December that rates were more likely to go up than down.

CORPORATES
ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

House price falls key caveat for Reserve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Feb-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank believes that the cases for an increase or a reduction in the cash rate are "more evenly balanced" now than they had been over the last year. In contrast, the Reserve Bank had stated in December that a rate rise is more likely. The central bank has also noted that dwelling investment is likely to decline more sharply than previously anticipated, and it has given indications that the outlook for house prices may influence the timing of the next change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED