MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Living standards stagnant until 2030: Deloitte

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Jan-25

Deloitte Access Economics has forecast that state and federal government spending will reach a record 28 per cent of real GDP by the end of 2025. This compares with an average of 22 per cent in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The firm has warned that despite rising government expenditure, Australians’ living standards will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2030. Meanwhile, Deloitte partner Stephen Smith expects that CPI data to be released today will show that inflation is moving sustainably towards the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. However, he says factors such as a resilient labour market, elevated government spending and a falling Australian dollar are complicating the central bank’s decision on interest rates.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Faltering dollar unlikely to sway Reserve Bank rates call

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Original article by Cameron Micallef
The Australian – Page: 19 : 22-Jan-25

The Australian dollar fell sharply on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump signalled that a tariff of 25 per cent could be imposed on imports from Canada and Mexico from the start of February. However, AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver says the recent downturn in the value of the currency is unlikely to influence the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision in February. Oliver contends that quarterly inflation data to be released in late January will be the key factor that the central bank will take into account.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

RBA lifts Labor hopes of rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 11-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. However, the RBA’s monetary policy statement has notably omitted a line which stated that the board is "not ruling anything in or out". RBA governor Michele Bullock has in turn noted that the latest wages and economic growth data has given the board some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining; however, she cautioned that the board is of the view that underlying price pressures are still too high. Bond traders have now priced in a 62 per cent chance of an official interest rate cut at the RBA’s next board meeting in February; a second rate cut has been widely tipped for April, with the federal election set to be held no later than mid-May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Home values fall but rates could save the day

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 11-Dec-24

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices in Sydney have fallen by 0.4 per cent in the last four weeks, while the Melbourne housing market is down 0.5 per cent. Tim Lawless from CoreLogic expects the residential market to be "subdued" until the Reserve Bank starts reducing the cash rate. ANZ Bank economist Madeline Dunk says the central bank is likely to announce the first rate cut in May, although she adds that February remains a possibility. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver in turn says a rate cut in February would put a floor under house prices.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

RBA getting it wrong on jobs

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 2 : 10-Dec-24

The Reserve Bank convened for its final board meeting for 2024 on Monday, with ACTU secretary Sally McManus being joined by union members outside its Sydney headquarters as she called on the RBA to cut interest rates. Melbourne University economics professor Jeff Borland, who is considered Australia’s leading labor market expert, contends the Australian jobs market is not as strong as the RBA thinks, and that its true state does not justify the RBA keeping the cash rate at 4.35 per cent; the RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ACTU, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE

Jobs rush likely to postpone rate cut

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 20-Nov-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia has noted in the minutes of its board meeting for November that there are signs that the job market is beginning to tighten. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1 per cent in October, and RBA governor Michelle Bullock has previously indicated that the strength of the labour market is amongst the reasons why further interest rate increases could be on the agenda. HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham agrees with the RBA’s assessment that the labour market may not weaken further, which is likely to rule out an interest rate cut in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

Resist your urge to splurge, ALP told

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 6-Nov-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. The RBA remains focused primarily on underlying inflation, which governor Michele Bullock says is still too high for the central bank to consider reducing the cash rate. Underlying inflation was 3.5 per cent in the year to September, and Bullock notes that temporary electricity rebates contributed to the headline inflation rate falling to 2.8 per cent. Bullock has also emphasised the need for Treasurer Jim Chalmers to avoid any spending measures that may fuel inflation ahead of the federal election.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Rate call kills hopes for late spring bounce

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 6-Nov-24

Kevin Brogan from national valuation firm Herron Todd White says the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday will deter some buyers from entering the housing market. He adds that there is likely to be downward pressure on activity and prices in so-called mortgage-belt housing markets in particular. Property industry experts also suggest that the rates decision will hinder any upturn in the east coast market at the tail-end of the spring selling season.

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HERRON TODD WHITE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

The half trillion-dollar stimulus we didn’t know about

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 15-Oct-24

A series of reviews by the Reserve Bank of Australia into its policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have revealed details of a half trillion-dollar stimulus that many were not aware of. It has prompted the question of whether the stimulus, in combination with record low interest rates and government assistance, help cause the inflation problem that prompted the RBA to instigate a series of interest rate increases. A further question prompted by the RBA’s reviews is why Australians governments are yet to examine the merits of their pandemic policies.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rates on hold will not help home buyers

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 25-Sep-24

Australian home buyers’ borrowing capacity has been cut by around 30 per cent since the Reserve Bank started reducing the cash rate in May 2022. Tim Lawless from CoreLogic says borrowing capacity – and therefore buying activity in the housing market – will not improve until the central bank starts to ease monetary policy. AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver in turn says demand is unlikely to rise until there are clear signs that the Reserve Bank is about to reduce the cash rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP