MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

OECD’s blue-sky outlook supports budget’s growth projections

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 5 : 31-May-18

The OECD has forecast that the Reserve Bank will be able to commence tightening monetary policy by the end of 2018 due the outlook for the Australian economy. The OECD expects economic growth of 2.9 per cent in 2018 and three per cent in 2019, while further strong growth in the employment market is forecast to have a flow-on effect for wages by the end of 2018. However, the OECD warned that the risks associated with high house prices require "continued vigilance".

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

House prices ‘won’t sway the RBA’

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 29-May-18

Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper says factors such as the low growth in wages means the central bank is unlikely to increase official interest rates in the near-term. He adds that slowing growth in residential property prices will also not influence the timing of a rise in the cash rate. Financial markets do not expect monetary policy to be tightened until at least late 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MELBOURNE BUSINESS SCHOOL

Wage woes a boon for investors, says Tevfik

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 23-May-18

The S&P/ASX 200 has fallen by an average of 4.3 per cent during May and June over the last decade, and the current trend suggests that it will be trading at around 5,724.8 points by the end of June. However, Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse still expects it to reach 6,500 points by the end of 2018. He says corporate profit margins – and in turn share prices – should benefit from expectations that wages growth will remain subdued. Lack of growth in wages will also affect the timing of any rise in official interest rates, which Credit Suisse does not expect until about mid-2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED – ASX AHG, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX

Flat wages cast doubt on budget

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-May-18

New figures show that Australian wages rose by just 0.5 per cent in the March quarter, unchanged from the three months to December. Independent economist Saul Eslake says the wage price index data may undermine the Federal Government’s forecast for a Budget surplus in 2019-20, which is dependent on growth in wages and consumer spending. The subdued growth in wages may also affect the outlook for official interest rates, with Sarah Hunger of BIS Oxford Economics suggesting that the cash rate could potentially be on hold until 2020.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

No change in rate, and RBA predicting more economic acceleration

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 2-May-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave official interest rates unchanged on 1 May was widely anticipated. The cash rate has now been on hold for an unprecedented 21 months. RBA governor Philip Lowe said the central bank still expects an increase in wages and inflation to be gradual, as will a fall in the unemployment rate. However, Lowe again said the Australian economy is likely to expand by more than three per cent in 2018 and 2019, compared with just 2.4 per cent in 2017.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

RBA talks up rate rise, but not just yet

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 18-Apr-18

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s latest board meeting show that board members expect monetary policy to be tightened rather than eased, although they have indicated that this is unlikely in the near-term given the outlook for inflation and unemployment. Meanwhile, Bill Evans of Westpac says the central bank is likely to downgrade its growth forecast for the Australian economy in 2018 from 3.25 per cent to three per cent in its next statement on monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

First rate rise will shock, warns RBA’s Lowe

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 12-Apr-18

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that there is likely to be a gradual increase in economic growth and wages, which should ensure that interest rates remain on hold in the near-term. Lowe also used an Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce speech to emphasise that the cash rate is expected to rise rather than fall when the central bank next adjusts monetary policy, and he noted that interests have not risen for more than seven years. Some economists now expect the cash rate to remain at 1.5 per cent until 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA-ISRAEL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

RBA keeps rates level for 18th meeting in row

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Apr-18

The general consensus of economists is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not tighten monetary policy until 2019, after the cash rate was left unchanged at 1.5 per cent on 3 April. RBA governor Philip Lowe again stressed that there is likely to be a gradual fall in the unemployment rate and a rise in the inflation rate to the central bank’s target range. He also said low growth in wages is likely to persist for some time. The RBA has not adjusted official interest rates since August 2016.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, INDEED INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Jobs cool RBA’s outlook on rates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 30 : 23-Mar-18

The Australian dollar fell in local trading on 22 March in response to data showing that the number of jobs created in February was below expectations at 17,500. Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 5.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent during the month, while the labour participation rate also increased. Economists suggest that the jobs data means the Reserve Bank is unlikely to increase official interest rates in the near-term. Meanwhile, the strength of the US economy has prompted the Federal Reserve to flag three interest rates rises in 2019, in addition to another two in 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

US Fed set to rise further above RBA

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 32 : 23-Mar-18

The yield on US 10-year bonds has eased to 2.86 per cent in response to the Federal Reserve’s move to increase interest rates to 1.75 per cent. Kapstream Capital’s Steve Goldman expects the central bank to increase US rates to 2.5 per cent, adding that this is more likely to be in 2019 rather than 2018. The US federal funds rate is now higher than Australia’s cash rate for the first time since 2000. The interest rate differential is expected to widen, as the Federal Reserve has flagged further rate rises in 2018 and 2019. Most analysts do not expect the Reserve Bank to do so until at least the March 2019 quarter.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, KAPSTREAM CAPITAL PTY LTD, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED