RBA sending a warning shot on rates: Edwards

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 20-Jul-17

Economist John Edwards recently suggested that Australia’s economic outlook could potentially prompt the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate from 1.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent by the end of 2019. The minutes of the central bank’s latest board meeting indicate that it now has a "neutral" nominal cash rate target of 3.5 per cent. Edwards says it is quite possible that official interest rates could rise to this level, and he anticipates a rate rise in March 2018. Paul Bloxham of HSBC forecasts a rate increase in the March 2018 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LOWY INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY

RBA signals cash rate rise to 3.5pc

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 19-Jul-17

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting for July show that it now has a neutral cash rate target of 3.5 per cent, compared with a cash rate of 1.5 per cent at present. Financial markets increased the chances of an interest rate rise in May 2018 to 91 per cent in response to the release of the minutes, which also made reference to economic indicators such as a downturn in unemployment and growth in infrastructure investment.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Headaches for Reserve Bank as Aussie battler becomes dollar dazzler

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 18-Jul-17

The Australian dollar has gained three per cent against its US counterpart in the last week, peaking at a two-year high of $US0.7836 in intra-day trading on 17 July. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar trade-weighted index has risen to 66.4 points. Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank says the currency’s recent strength means the Reserve Bank will not increase the cash rate as quickly as financial markets had expected.

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NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, GROUP OF TEN (G-10), UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, BLOOMBERG LP

Record debt levels to keep RBA on hold

Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 12-Jul-17

PIMCO Australia Robert Mead notes that a rise in the nation’s household debt-to-income ratio to a record high has coincided with a downturn in household debt in other developed countries. He warns that it will be hard for the Reserve Bank to increase the cash rate in the near-term, given the growth in household debt and residential property prices. With little prospect of a local rate rise for some time, US interest rates could potentially soon return to parity with Australian rates for the first time in 15 years.

CORPORATES
PIMCO AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA douses talk of rate rises

Original article by David Rogers, Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 5-Jul-17

Financial markets have priced in a nine per cent chance of a rise in Australia’s cash rate before the end of 2017 in the wake of the Reserve Bank’s July board meeting. The chances of a rate rise in the next 12 months have fallen from 84 per cent to 76 per cent. The central bank’s monetary policy statement was largely unchanged from May, although the Reserve Bank noted that a gradual strengthening of the Australia economy is likely. It also highlighted the need for the Australian dollar to remain low as the domestic economy completes its transition from the mining investment boom.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF ENGLAND, BANK OF CANADA

Resource states recover to drive jobs growth

Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 16-Jun-17

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that 42,000 new jobs were added to the economy in May 2017. Full-time jobs accounted for 80 per cent of the 141,000 new jobs in the past three months. New South Wales added 49,000 new jobs over the past six months, while Victoria added 41,000. Resources states Queensland and Western Australia both recorded improved jobs growth in the past six months. Kristina Clifton of the Commonwealth Bank said the recent good job figures means an interest rate cut is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Outlook ‘tough’ as economy slows

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Jun-17

Data from Credit Suisse shows that financial markets expect the cash rate to remain on hold in the next 12 months, following the release of the latest GDP data. The economy expanded by just 0.3 per cent in the March 2017 quarter, and year-on-year growth fell to an eight-year low of 1.7 per cent. The data will cast doubt on the Reserve Bank’s forecast of calendar year economic growth of 2.5-3.5 per cent. The Commonwealth Bank notes that the central bank will be adverse to easing the cash rate, as doing so could further inflate house prices.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG

Reserve takes hands off the growth lever

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 7-Jun-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy statement for June 2017 notes that GDP growth is likely to have slowed in the March 2017 quarter. Paul Dales of Capital Economics says that while the central bank may be willing to overlook a temporary fall in GDP, a second successive quarter of weak GDP growth in June would be a concern for it. Dales expects the RBA to leave official interest rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent for the rest of 2017, after doing so in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Upbeat RBA signals end to cuts

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 3-May-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave official interest rates unchanged on 2 May was widely expected. However, an upbeat outlook for the domestic and global economies has prompted speculation that there will be no more rate cuts in the current monetary policy cycle. RBA governor Philip Lowe noted that the resource sector’s exports are rising while higher commodity prices are resulting in an increase in national income.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Rate hikes deferred by slow US growth

Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 1-May-17

The Federal Reserve is tipped to leave interest rates on hold in May 2017, in the wake of GDP data showing that US economic growth slowed to a three-year low of 0.7 per cent in the March quarter. Some 70 per cent of futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in June. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to leave rates on hold in May, and Paul Brennan of Citigroup says the central bank’s revised quarterly forecasts are unlikely to be unduly affected by data showing that inflation is within its target range.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, THINKMARKETS, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC, SOCIETE GENERALE SA