MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Why investors and economists differ on odds of rate call

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 22-Sep-16

Financial markets consider that there is a near-even chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in the first half of 2017. In contrast, the general consensus of economists is that there will be at least one more rate cut in the current monetary policy easing cycle. JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy expects the central bank to reduce the cash rate by another 50 basis points, while James Woods of Rivkin Securities suggests that there are limits to what monetary policy can achieve in terms of economic stimulus.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RIVKIN SECURITIES PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Rate cuts ‘hurt some but overall we gain’

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 21 : 16-Sep-16

A report released by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that official interest rate cuts have a net gain for the nation overall, despite the impact on savers. The report argues that each $A1 reduction in home loan repayments results in an average increase of at least $A0.20 in expenditure on consumer durables. However, spending on durables rises by just $A0.04 on average for each $A1 increase in the interest income of net savers.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Zero rates eould smash the banks

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 8-Sep-16

A decline in the cash rate to zero would have a negative impact on returns from Australian banking stocks. Credit Suisse analysts Jarrod Martin and James Ellis have calculated that such a scenario would trigger a fall in earnings of the major banks by an average of nine per cent or $A2.7 billion in total. Consequently, the banks would have to respond to a fall in return on equity by reducing their dividend payout ratios.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Free kick for RBA’s new chief

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 27 : 7-Sep-16

Financial markets estimate that there is a 42 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by the end of 2016. The general consensus of economists is that rates will remain on hold until 2017, after the central bank opted against easing monetary policy on 6 September. Expectations of a strong rise in GDP growth in the June quarter will strengthen the case for leaving rates on hold. Philip Lowe will shortly succeed Glenn Stevens as Reserve Bank governor.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, comments on the findings in State of the Nation 25: Spotlight on Financial Risk

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Aug-16

The end of the mining boom in Australia presents the Australian economy with many pressing challenges – and some of the biggest involve the potential for a slowing Australian economy to increase mortgage stress around the country, and also to lead to diminished superannuation balances for Australians heading towards retirement. The casualisation of the Australian work-force with an increasing proportion of Australians working part-time rather than full-time means many Australians are forced to save less for their retirement whilst the ability to pay current bills, including mortgage payments, is also crimped. In addition, the persistently low interest rates in Australia mean the amount required for retirement actually increases as annual returns on investments follow interest rates lower. Follow this link to view the full State of the Nation 25: Spotlight on Financial Risk Powerpoint presentation PDF.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

State of the Nation 25: Spotlight on Financial Risk

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Aug-16

Roy Morgan Research CEO Michele Levine this week presented the latest State of the Nation Report in Melbourne and Sydney, with a special Spotlight on Financial Risk including Mortgage debt and stress, Income risks and the adequacy of retirement funding. Key findings of this in-depth industry spotlight include: Home ownership in Australia is likely to continue its downward trend whilst house price increases outpace the increase in household incomes; Mortgage stress levels are likely to remain elevated even with the likelihood of further interest rate reductions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) over the coming 12-18 months. Official Australian interest rates are already at a record low of 1.5% and likely to converge with the 0% interest rates found in comparable Western economies including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and the EU; Household debt levels could become a risk for both households and banks should general economic conditions turn down; The reliance on dual incomes for home loans repayments by many Australian families is a risk in itself with the increasing trend towards part-time work throughout much of the economy and with the additional factor of low wages growth and many more. View the full release to see a comprehensive run-down of findings.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Stevens: we’re kidding ourselves

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 11-Aug-16

Glenn Stevens has warned that more investment is needed to stimulate economic growth. The departing governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said on 10 August 2016 that monetary policy cannot revive economic growth on its own, and fiscal reforms are also needed. It is also necessary to curb demand for debt among companies and households. Stevens will leave the RBA in September, and will be succeeded by deputy governor Philip Lowe.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NAB forecasts more cuts in interest rates

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 10-Aug-16

National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by another 50 basis points in the next 12 months, to a record low of one per cent. The banking major anticipates rate cuts in both May and August 2017. Meanwhile, NAB’s latest monthly survey shows that both business sentiment and business conditions declined in July 2016. Likewise, the ANZ Bank-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index fell by 2.8 per cent in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Cutting rates to get the $A lower brings risks to the economy

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 10-Aug-16

The Australian dollar has risen above $US0.76 since the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate to a record low of 1.5 per cent on 2 August 2016. The currency has benefited from the fact that the local cash rate is still quite high relative to many countries, so further money policy easing may be necessary in order to put sustained downward pressure on the dollar. However, this strategy has economic risks, such as the potential to undermine consumer confidence. Indeed, the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 2.8 per cent to 114.7 in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, TD SECURITIES, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Interest rate cut brings out home buyers

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Aug-16

Preliminary data from Corelogic shows that Sydney boasted a residential auction clearance rate of more than 80 per cent on the weekend of 6-7 August 2016, compared with 78.3 per cent at the same time in 2015. The clearance rate in Melbourne was 76.1 per cent, down from 78.5 per cent a year ago. The Reserve Bank’s move to reduce the cash rate to a record low of 1.5 per cent prompted renewed activity among first-home buyers, although auctioneer Damien Cooley notes that they are still being edged out by property investors.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GOODYER DONNELLEY REAL ESTATE, BELLE PROPERTY PTY LTD, McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA, CBRE PTY LTD, HOCKING STUART PTY LTD, RAY WHITE REAL ESTATE