MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

RBA give exporters no relief on $A

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 18-Mar-16

The Australian dollar has risen above $US0.76 for the first time in eight months and this trend is bad news for exporters. Tourism operators, services providers and education companies cannot count on a corrective action from the Reserve Bank of Australia. A decline in the unemployment rate, which fell from six per cent to 5.8 per cent in February 2016, will make the central bank less willing to cut the official interest rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

$A ignores RBA ‘jawboning’ and pushes to eight-month high

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 18-Mar-16

The Australian dollar was trading at $US0.7591 in late local trade on 17 March 2016. The local currency has been rising for some time and even words of caution by Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle failed to affect it. Debelle told a foreign exchange seminar in Sydney that Australia needs a weaker domestic currency.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Spending spree lifts economy to highest speed in two years

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 3-Mar-16

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the December 2015 quarter, and by three per cent year-on-year. The general consensus of economists was for annual growth of just 2.5 per cent. Economic growth was boosted by an increase in government and consumer spending, although the household savings rate fell to a post-global financial crisis low of 7.6 per cent. The stronger-than-expected economic growth rate will reduce the chances of further official interest rate cuts in the near-term.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, GROUP OF SEVEN (G-7), ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Higher dollar not enough to kill RBA’s chill

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 29-Feb-16

There is general consensus among economists that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged at two per cent on 1 March 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital is among the economists who expect an interest rate cut at some point in 2016. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank’s Michael Blythe does not expect the central bank to resume "jawboning" the Australian dollar in its monetary policy statement, despite its recent rise to a seven-week high.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN

Rise in jobless to cut interest rates

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 19-Feb-16

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 5.8 per cent to six per cent in January 2016. However, the participation rate was steady at 65.2 per cent. Meanwhile, part-time employees now account for a record 31.2 per cent of the workforce. The jobless rate in New South Wales was 0.3 per cent higher at 5.5 per cent, while unemployment in Victoria increased by 0.3 per cent to 6.3 per cent. Tim Toohey of Goldman Sachs says the jobs data will strengthen the case for further interest rate cuts, and he expects two rate cuts in 2016.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Australia at risk from hard landing in China

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 18-Feb-16

The Chinese economy expanded by just 6.9 per cent in 2015, and Oxford Economics forecasts a gradual slowing of economic growth over the next five years. However, Sian Fenner of Oxford Economics warns that Australia could face a recession in 2016 if the Chinese economy experiences a "hard landing". Fenner adds that in the event of a recession the Reserve Bank could reduce the cash rate to just 0.25 per cent, which would limit the extent of the economic downturn.

CORPORATES
OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AVIVA PLC, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

Inflation uptick takes interest rate cut off the table

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 28-Jan-16

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that consumer inflation rose by a higher-than-expected 0.4 per cent in the December 2015 quarter. The annual inflation rate was also above expectations at 1.7 per cent. Financial markets have responded to the inflation data by downgrading the chances of a rise in the cash rate in February to just four per cent. Morgan Stanley’s Daniel Blake says a mid-year rate cut remains on the cards given the CPI data.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF JAPAN, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Rate cut in near future seen as unlikely

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 22-Jan-16

The general consensus of Australian economists is that the Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate unchanged in February 2016. Shane Oliver of AMP is the only economist out of 14 who believes that recent financial market volatility could result in an interest rate cut. He adds that the upcoming release of inflation data for the December 2015 quarter is likely to be the deciding factor. Meanwhile, the ANZ Bank’s chief economist Warren Hogan expects the cash rate to be cut in May and August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, BANK OF CANADA, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

RBA tipped to make cuts around mid-year

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 20-Jan-16

Data from Citigroup shows that financial markets believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia is now almost certain to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in June 2016. There is a 20 per cent chance of a rate cut in February, and a 40 per cent chance of a rate cut in March. Factors such as the downturn in the crude oil price and the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy are like to influence the central bank’s monetary policy deliberations. The cash rate has remained on hold since May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CITIBANK PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Australia forecast to follow Fed on rates

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 22-Dec-15

The Australian dollar has strengthened in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates. There is growing speculation that the Reserve Bank will begin tightening monetary policy in 2016, with BT Investment Management forecasting that the cash rate will rise from two per cent to 2.5 per cent. Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank expects monetary policy to remain unchanged, while the ANZ Bank has forecast that the cash rate will be cut to 1.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD