MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Funds predict tough times ahead for local shares

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 19-Nov-14

Paradice Investment Management founder David Paradice is among the fund managers who forecast lower earnings growth in Australia during 2015. Geoff Wilson of Wilson Asset Management expects the Australian sharemarket to be lower at the end of 2015, while Damien Boey of Credit Suisse says factors such as the weaker Australian economy and the fall in commodity prices will prompt at least one more interest rate cut

CORPORATES
PARADICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, SLATER AND GORDON LIMITED – ASX SGH, INFOMEDIA LIMITED – ASX IFM, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Aussie ‘will hit US76c’

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Anthony Macdonald
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 14-Nov-14

Geoffrey Kendick of Morgan Stanley is bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar, forecasting that it will end 2014 at $US0.85. Kendrick expects the currency to be trading at just $US0.76 at the end of 2015. He also believes that there is the potential for global deflation, and he does not expect the Reserve Bank to increase official interest rates before its US counterpart does so

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Reserve Bank keeps interest rate mantra

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-Nov-14

The Australian dollar late in the trading on 4 November 2014 rose to $US0.8724 from $US0.8694, following news that the Reserve Bank of Australia was leaving the official cash interest rate unchanged. The board meeting earlier in the day resulted in the 14th consecutive non-adjustment of the 2.5% rate, and the central bank has signalled that this will remain the case until close to mid-2015. The high foreign exchange rate is a major reason, although there are concerns that the low cost of home mortgage borrowing is creating a residential real estate prices bubble. Inflation is benign but the terms of trade are worsening

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Cyclical stocks could win favour as interest rates rise

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 22-Aug-14

There is general consensus among economists that the Reserve Bank of Australia will eventually begin to tighten monetary policy. Graham Harman of Russell Investments notes that cyclical stocks in particular tend to benefit from an increase in interest rates. However, David Sokulsky of UBS says historical analysis shows that stocks such as infrastructure, banks and utilities have been adversely affected by a rise in interest rates

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RUSSELL INVESTMENTS PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

RBA tells Abbott to hold nerve

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Phillip Coorey,Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 21-Aug-14

The Australian Government continues to lobby minor party and independent senators on getting $A47bn worth of May 2014 Budget measures passed. However Prime Minister Tony Abbott has scaled back his rhetoric and is no longer labelling the Budget situation a "crisis" or "emergency". Meanwhile Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has backed the Government’s cuts, which he said were far from dramatic. He also noted that monetary policy alone could not keep the economy on track

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HUMAN SERVICES. MEDICARE AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE,LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY,LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY,NICK XENOPHON GROUP,DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Interest rates in state of suspension

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 6-Aug-14

Riki Polygenis of the ANZ Bank says the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to adopt a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy given the state of the economy. The central bank left the cash rate unchanged on 5 August 2014, and its monetary policy statement largely reiterated the views that were expressed in the previous month. Meanwhile, new data shows that the nation’s trade deficit blew out to $A4.8bn in the June quarter

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Mortgage rates hit record lows

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jonathan Shapiro|Clancy Yeates|Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Jul-14

Three of Australia’s four major banks reduced their fixed mortgage interest rates on 23 July 2014, after the five-year swap rate fell to just 3.11 per cent in the previous week. The Commonwealth Bank’s five-year fixed rate has fallen to a record low of just 4.99 per cent, with Westpac and National Australia Bank reducing their rates for new customers to the same level. Meanwhile, market watchers expect the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate on hold after inflation rose to three per cent in the second quarter

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA|WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC|NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB|RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA|AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ|BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED|BELL FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX BFG|UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD|MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEMS|AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS|RATECITY PTY LTD|MOZO PTY LTD|MEMBERS EQUITY BANK PTY LTD|UBANK

Interest rates set to remain at record lows

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 17-Jul-14

The general consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg is that Australia’s cash rate will rise in the first half of 2015, although the financial market has priced in a better-than-even chance of a rate cut by the end of 2014. Tim Toohey of Goldman Sachs is also bucking the trend, and believes that the Reserve Bank could potentially reduce the cash rate again by September. The central bank itself has retained a neutral bias on monetary policy

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, BLOOMBERG LP, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP