MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Stevens calls for US75c dollar

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Michael Stutchbury
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 12-Dec-14

The Australian dollar is currently trading at around $US0.83, but Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens believes that it needs to fall further. He argues that a more appropriate level for the currency would be about $US0.75, arguing that the decline in Australia’s terms of trade means the dollar needs to be lower. Stevens also says that the need for stability is a major reason why interest rates were kept on hold during 2014, and stresses that any further easing of monetary policy would need to has a positive effect on business and consumer confidence

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Property curbs pave way for RBA rate cuts

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 11-Dec-14

Martin Whetton of the ANZ Bank says the decision to implement measures aimed at curbing growth in loans for investment properties could lead a reduction in the cash rate. The bond market had anticipated such action by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, with the 10-year bond rate falling below three per cent and the three-year bond rate easing to 2.27 per cent

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TRIPLE T CONSULTING LIMITED

Westpac breaks ranks to tip RBA will cut rates

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 5-Dec-14

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans expects official interest rates to be reduced in both February and March 2015, citing factors such as the latest GDP data and the high Australian dollar. National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank economists have indicated that they may revise their forecasts for interest rates to remain on hold until late 2015. Economists at Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have already forecast that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate in 2015

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA changes tune, opens door to interest rate cuts if $A stays high

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Dec-14

The Australian dollar rose to $US0.8524 on 2 December 2014, after the Reserve Bank adopted a dovish position on monetary policy. The central bank has had a bias toward raising interest rates for some time, but governor Glenn Stevens has signalled that the cash rate could be cut again in 2015 if the dollar remains high. The Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold at its final meeting for 2014

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Funds predict tough times ahead for local shares

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 19-Nov-14

Paradice Investment Management founder David Paradice is among the fund managers who forecast lower earnings growth in Australia during 2015. Geoff Wilson of Wilson Asset Management expects the Australian sharemarket to be lower at the end of 2015, while Damien Boey of Credit Suisse says factors such as the weaker Australian economy and the fall in commodity prices will prompt at least one more interest rate cut

CORPORATES
PARADICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, SLATER AND GORDON LIMITED – ASX SGH, INFOMEDIA LIMITED – ASX IFM, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Aussie ‘will hit US76c’

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Original article by Anthony Macdonald
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 14-Nov-14

Geoffrey Kendick of Morgan Stanley is bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar, forecasting that it will end 2014 at $US0.85. Kendrick expects the currency to be trading at just $US0.76 at the end of 2015. He also believes that there is the potential for global deflation, and he does not expect the Reserve Bank to increase official interest rates before its US counterpart does so

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Reserve Bank keeps interest rate mantra

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-Nov-14

The Australian dollar late in the trading on 4 November 2014 rose to $US0.8724 from $US0.8694, following news that the Reserve Bank of Australia was leaving the official cash interest rate unchanged. The board meeting earlier in the day resulted in the 14th consecutive non-adjustment of the 2.5% rate, and the central bank has signalled that this will remain the case until close to mid-2015. The high foreign exchange rate is a major reason, although there are concerns that the low cost of home mortgage borrowing is creating a residential real estate prices bubble. Inflation is benign but the terms of trade are worsening

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Cyclical stocks could win favour as interest rates rise

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 22-Aug-14

There is general consensus among economists that the Reserve Bank of Australia will eventually begin to tighten monetary policy. Graham Harman of Russell Investments notes that cyclical stocks in particular tend to benefit from an increase in interest rates. However, David Sokulsky of UBS says historical analysis shows that stocks such as infrastructure, banks and utilities have been adversely affected by a rise in interest rates

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RUSSELL INVESTMENTS PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

RBA tells Abbott to hold nerve

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Original article by Phillip Coorey,Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 21-Aug-14

The Australian Government continues to lobby minor party and independent senators on getting $A47bn worth of May 2014 Budget measures passed. However Prime Minister Tony Abbott has scaled back his rhetoric and is no longer labelling the Budget situation a "crisis" or "emergency". Meanwhile Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has backed the Government’s cuts, which he said were far from dramatic. He also noted that monetary policy alone could not keep the economy on track

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HUMAN SERVICES. MEDICARE AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE,LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY,LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA,AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY,NICK XENOPHON GROUP,DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Interest rates in state of suspension

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 6-Aug-14

Riki Polygenis of the ANZ Bank says the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to adopt a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy given the state of the economy. The central bank left the cash rate unchanged on 5 August 2014, and its monetary policy statement largely reiterated the views that were expressed in the previous month. Meanwhile, new data shows that the nation’s trade deficit blew out to $A4.8bn in the June quarter

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED