MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Reserve will not hesitate to hike

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 : 25-Oct-23

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has used her first public speech in the role to emphasise that the central bank will increase the cash rate again if it is deemed necessary in order to curb inflation. Bullock conceded that there is a risk that inflation could return to the RBA’s target range more slowly than is currently forecast. Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says inflation is likely to remain higher and for longer than the government would like; however, he says Australia is in a position of relative strength due to the foundations the government has laid in the last 12 months. CPI data to be released on Wednesday is likely to be a key factor in the RBA’s monetary policy decision on 7 November.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Odds of Melbourne Cup Day rate rise shorten

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Original article by Shane Wright, Rachel Clun
The Age – Page: Online : 18-Oct-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for October show that it considered increasing the cash rate. The minutes stated that the RBA board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to the target range than currently expected, and that upcoming economic data will determine whether the current monetary pause is sustained. Inflation and unemployment data to be released next week are likely to be a key factor as to whether the cash rate is increased in November. Meanwhile, Deloitte Access Economics has forecast that economic growth will slow to one per cent by the March 2024 quarter, and that the nation will experience both a per capita recession and a recession in the retail sector.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Nation stuck on grow slow: OECD

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Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 20-Sep-23

The OECD still expects Australia to record GDP growth of 1.8 per cent in 2023, in line with its previous forecast. However, GDP growth is expected to be just 1.3 per cent in 2024. The OECD has also forecast that Australia’s headline inflation rate will fall to 3.2 per cent in 2024, down from 5.5 per cent in 2023. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of core inflation is forecast to rise to 5.9 per cent in 2023 before falling to 3.3 per cent next year. Meanwhile, the minutes from the RBA’s monthly board meeting shows that board members considered lifting the cash rate to 4.35 per cent in September, due to concerns about inflation

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Top economists see end to rate hikes, predict house price recovery

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Original article by Millie Muroi
The Age – Page: Online : 13-Sep-23

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s chief economist Stephen Halmarick says a falling inflation rate means that official interest rates have now most likely peaked. He expects consumer spending to begin to decline by the end of 2023, prompting the Reserve Bank to start easing monetary policy in 2024. Halmarick also forecasts that house prices will rise by seven per cent in 2023 and a further five per cent in 2024, citing factors such as rising migration levels and housing supply constraints. Besa Deda from Westpac also suggests that interest rates may have peaked, and she expects the cash rate to begin falling in the second half of 2024.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA to keep rates on hold as inflation stalls

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Sep-23

Philip Lowe has used his final statement as Reserve Bank of Australia governor to contend that the series of interest rate rises since May 2022 are working to establish a "more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy". He adds that the decision on Tuesday to pause official rates at 4.1 per cent for a third successive month will give the RBA board more time to assess the economic outlook and the impact of the interest rate rises to date. Lowe emphasised that bringing inflation under control is still the board’s priority. JP Morgan expects the RBA to increase the cash rate one more time, in November. Michele Bullock will formally succeed Lowe on 18 September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA,JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

RBA warns job market may be about to sour

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Original article by Michael Read, Tess Bennett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Aug-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for August show that it considered increasing the cash rate to 4.35 per cent. However, indications that the jobs market may at a "turning point" are among the reasons why the board opted for a second successive monthly pause. The RBA cited factors such as a small rise in the official underemployment rate, a fall in hiring intentions and improved labour availability as signs that the jobs boom may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, economists say weaker-than-expected wages growth will strengthen the case for the cash rate to remain on hold for an extended period.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Lowe: we are on way to taming inflation

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 2-Aug-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent on Tuesday will be a "welcome reprieve" for people who are "doing it tough". He adds that while inflation is falling, it is still too high. RBA governor Philip Lowe has also acknowledged that consumer price growth remains too high, but says the recent data is consistent with inflation returning to the target range of 2-3 per cent over time. Lowe adds that a second successive pause will give the RBA more time to assess the impact of the rate rises to date, as well as the economic outlook.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate hikes may cost even more jobs: RBA

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 19-Jul-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for July show that it considered a 25 basis point increase in the cash rate. The board also discussed the possibility that growing pressure on households’ budgets could result in consumption slowing more sharply than the current forecasts suggest. This would in turn result in slower demand for labour, while the unemployment rate would most likely rise beyond the rate required to ensure that inflation returns to the target range of 2-3 in a timely manner. National Australia Bank’s senior economist Adam Boynton expects interest rates to remain on hold, although he says a rate rise in August is still a possibility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Chalmers won’t back the unions on jobless target

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Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 4 : 17-Jul-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says he will not ‘pre-empt’ the monetary policy decisions that incoming Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock might recommend to its board. Chalmers adds that it "remains to be seen" as to whether inflation can be brought under control with higher levels of employment, and he says inflation is the main challenge facing the domestic economy. The ACTU has called for a "reset" of the RBA’s full employment target in the wake of Bullock’s appointment, while Australian Workers Union secretary Paul Farrow said the RBA should redefine full employment as being "understood as zero involuntary unemployment". Bullock had suggested in June that the unemployment rate will have to rise to 4.5 per cent to restore inflation to the target range of 2-3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN WORKERS’ UNION-FEDERATION OF INDUSTRIAL, MANUFACTURING AND ENGINEERING EMPLOYEES

1.4m borrowers at risk of repayment stress

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Jul-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled that further interest rate rises may be necessary in order to return inflation to its target range, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent on Tuesday. Households will face further financial pressure if there are more rate rises. Home loan borrowers will be particularly vulnerable, with research from Roy Morgan showing that 1.43 million mortgage borrowers are now at risk of mortgage stress; this is an increase of 627,000 in the last year. Roy Morgan estimates that an additional 51,000 borrowers would be at risk of mortgage stress if the cash rate is increased by another 25 basis points. A second rate rise of this size would put another 94,000 borrowers at risk of mortgage stress.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROY MORGAN LIMITED