Labor’s spending plans could hit a wall

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 13-Dec-18

Labor plans to increase tax revenue by about $30bn over four years if it wins the 2019 federal election, and by nearly $280bn over a decade. However, the majority of Senate crossbenchers oppose Labor’s key tax policy initiatives, including its negative gearing reforms and the abolition of cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits. Analysis suggests that Labor’s tax revenue would be up to $19bn lower than forecast if the Senate were to reject its key tax measures.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIAN CONSERVATIVES, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Labor’s tax grab faces Senate block

Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 12-Dec-18

Labor may not have sufficient support in the Senate for its proposal to abolish cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits if it wins the 2019 federal election. Labor would require the support of the Greens and four crossbenchers to pass the reforms before the current Senate is dissolved on 30 June. However, nine of the 10 crossbenchers oppose the policy, with Fraser Anning describing it as a "socialist retiree tax". In addition, none of the current senators support Labor’s proposal to restrict negative gearing to new homes, although some favour capping the number of properties that can be negatively geared.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE

One-year delay likely for negative gearing changes

Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 6-Dec-18

It is unlikely that Labor would be able to legislate its proposed negative gearing reforms in time for the start of the 2019-20 financial year if it wins the next federal election. The poll is tipped to be held on 11 or 18 May 2019, which would give a Labor government just six weeks to enact its reforms for them to take effect on 1 July. This means the reforms would most likely take effect in July 2020, although a Labor source has raised the possibility that the legislation could be backdated if it is passed after 1 July.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE, ONE NATION PARTY

House prices to dive 10pc more: Ellerston

Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 5-Dec-18

Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital is bearish about the outlook for Australia’s residential property market, forecasting that house prices will eventually fall by an additional 10 per cent. He adds that this could occur much more rapidly if Labor wins the 2019 federal election and implements its proposed changes to the negative gearing regime. Gillespie says a 4-5 per cent fall in house prices would be necessary to 4 to 5 per cent to offset the impact of the negative gearing reforms.

CORPORATES
ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Aussie John warns Labor’s property plan a nuclear bomb

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 19-Nov-18

Aussie Home Loans founder John Symond has warned that Labor’s proposed changes to the negative gearing regime could lead to a recession in Australia. He says that although the "grandfathering" provisions of the Labor reforms would benefit people who are buying their first home, they would cause property prices to fall and result in many existing homeowners having negative equity in their home. Symond supports negative gearing reforms, but he argues that they should primarily target people on high incomes.

CORPORATES
AUSSIE HOME LOANS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, THE TAX INSTITUTE, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Negative gearing changes would create distortions

Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 13-Nov-18

RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg contends that Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms would create a two-tiered property market. Economist Stephen Koukoulas believes that concerns about Labor’s proposals are unwarranted, as any fall in house prices that might result will make it easier for first-home buyers to enter the market. Tyrone Hodge of JLL thinks the proposed changes could have a negative impact on housing supply.

CORPORATES
RISKWISE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Investor hit: Labor seats in crossfire

Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Nov-18

The federal government’s analysis of income and tax data for 2015-16 shows that 1.3 million Australians owned a negatively-geared investment property during that financial year. Some 640,000 people lived in seats held by the Coalition, while 570,000 were in seats held by Labor. Two Labor-held seats in the Australian Capital Territory had the highest number of people who used negative gearing. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says Labor’s proposed changes to the negative gearing regime will hit not only its own supporters, but all Australians who own a home.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RISKWISE

ALP’s property-tax hit may be imposed as early as July

Original article by Rosie Lewis
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 25-Oct-18

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has defended Labor’s proposed negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms, amid concern about their impact on dwelling construction. He says modelling commissioned by Master Builders Australia is flawed as it does not take into account the fact that negative gearing changes will be "grandfathered". MBA CEO Denita Wawn argues that the grandfathering provisions will have no effect on future investment decisions. Sources have indicated that a Labor government would implement the negative gearing reforms from July 2020, and possibly a year earlier if the federal election is called before the end of 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, CADENCE ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY

Labor risks $12bn housing hit

Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Oct-18

Independent modelling by Cadence Economics has examined the likely impact of Labor’s proposed negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms on the residential property market. It concludes that the policy could result in new dwelling commencements falling by between 10,000 and 42,000 over a five-year period. This would in turn reduce construction activity by up to $12bn over this period and result in between 7,500 and 32,000 fewer jobs in the sector. Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn notes that housing approvals have peaked since Labor announced its policy two years ago.

CORPORATES
CADENCE ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Labor win a housing game changer

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 23-Aug-18

Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital says financial markets are not giving much consideration to the possibility that Labor will win the next federal election. He notes that a Labor government would have a major impact on the property market, given that Labor proposes to restrict negative gearing to new homes. Gillespie adds that a Labor win would also have implications for the sharemarket and the broader economy.

CORPORATES
ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, CSR LIMITED – ASX CSR, FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED – ASX FBU, ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED – ASX ABC, DULUXGROUP LIMITED – ASX DLX, GWA GROUP LIMITED – ASX GWA, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX GMA, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET