POLITICAL PARTIES – AUSTRALIA

Snap election would catch Coalition with its pants down

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Rachel Baxendale, Sam Buckingham-Jones
The Australian – Page: 9 : 23-Aug-18

Analyses shows that since 1983, federal political parties that have changed leaders more than halfway between an election have generally won office at the next election. There is speculation that the Coalition’s current leadership crisis could prompt an early election, but Labor has made a lot more progress in selecting candidates than the Liberal Party. Labor has completed the pre-selection process for candidates in the 20 most marginal seats that are held by the Coalition. In contrast, the Liberals have named just one candidate in the 20 most marginal Labor-held seats.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ELECTORAL COMMISSION OF NEW SOUTH WALES

D-day for PM as allies desert

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Simon Benson, Dennis Shanahan, Joe Kelly, Ben Packham, Greg Brown, Primrose Riordan, Rosie Lewis, Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 23-Aug-18

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull could face another leadership challenge before Parliament rises for two weeks. Supporters of Peter Dutton have petitioned Coalition MPs to hold a partyroom meeting and another leadership ballot on 23 August. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has told Turnbull that he has lost the support of the partyroom, while Attorney-General Christian Porter has confirmed that he has sought advice from the Solicitor-General regarding Dutton’s eligibility to be in parliament. His financial interest in two childcare centres that receive government subsidies could potentially be a breach of the Constitution.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Snap Morgan Poll shows electors prefer Turnbull to Shorten but Shorten preferred to Dutton

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Aug-18

A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted with a cross-section of more than 1,250 Australian electors on August 22 shows that Malcolm Turnbull (52%) is seen as the Better Prime Minister compared to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (44.5%), while a further 3.5% cannot say. However, Bill Shorten (59%) is clearly seen as the Better PM compared to Liberal Party leadership challenger Peter Dutton (36.5%), while a further 4.5% cannot say. Analysis by gender shows that 53% of men regard Turnbull as the Better PM, a lead of 10% over Shorten (43%); Turnbull has a lead of 5% as Better PM among women (51%, compared with 46% for Shorten). Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that if the Liberal Party chose to elect Peter Dutton as the new Liberal Party Leader they would be setting Bill Shorten and the ALP on course for victory at the next Federal Election. She notes that Dutton is not significantly stronger in his home State of Queensland than any other state; just 40% of electors in Queensland see Dutton as the Better PM, while 53% say Shorten would be the Better PM.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Turmoil slashes $20bn from ASX

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 27 : 22-Aug-18

Political uncertainty is expected to continue to weigh on the Australian sharemarket, which recorded its largest single-day fall in five months on 21 August. The Australian dollar also fell sharply in the wake of the leadership spill, before recovering late in local trading. Analysts note that investors are concerned that the Coalition’s lack of unity could ensure that Labor wins the next election, which could in turn have negative implications for financial markets and the economy.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WAM CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX WAM, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, PENGANA CAPITAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX PCG, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, INFIGEN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX IFN, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW

Malcolm Turnbull hangs on with 48-35 leadership ballot win over Peter Dutton, reshuffle on the cards

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Louise Yaxley
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 22-Aug-18

Nine federal government frontbenchers have offered to resign in the wake of the leadership spill, including Greg Hunt, Steve Ciobo and Michael Keenan. However, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has only accepted the resignation of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, although Turnbull has indicated that he asked Dutton to remain in his portfolio. Dutton in turn says he contested the leadership because he believed that he has the best chance of winning the next election. Dutton added that he felt that it would not be appropriate for him to remain in cabinet.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HUMAN SERVICES

PM braces for challenge

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Simon Benson, Geoff Chambers, Dennis Shanahan, Greg Brown, Jared Owens
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 21-Aug-18

Supporters of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull believe that he has sufficient numbers in the Liberals’ partyroom to retain the leadership if it is forced to a vote. However, Turnbull is said to have lost the support of half of the Liberal members of cabinet; they are now prepared to back Peter Dutton, as are up to six members of the outer ministry. Turnbull’s backdown on the national energy guarantee has prompted speculation that there could be a leadership spill when Parliament sits in September.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING, PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM

Ignore One Nation at your peril, says Roy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 26-Jul-18

One Nation’s preferences contributed to the Liberal-National Party’s loss of Longman at the 2016 federal election. The minor political party is likely to have an impact on the outcome of the by-election on 28 July, with expectations that it will gain about 20 per cent of the primary vote. Wyatt Roy, who lost the seat to Labor’s Susan Lamb in 2016, says both of the major parties must listen to the concerns of One Nation supporters. He notes that L-NP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg should benefit from One Nation preferences.

CORPORATES
ONE NATION PARTY, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AFINITI

Labor spends up big as leadership pressure builds

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Mark Ludlow, Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 25-Jul-18

Labor has made spending commitments totalling $155m during campaigning in the seat of Longman, compared with the $44.6m that has been pledged by the Coalition. Likewise, Labor has announced spending measures in excess of $183m in the seat of Braddon, while the Coalition has committed to spending $122.7m. The other three seats in which by-elections will be held on 28 July have attracted significantly fewer spending promises from both sides of politics.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, ONE NATION PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE

Deloitte claims tax cuts are unaffordable

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ben Potter
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 23-Jul-18

Deloitte Access Economics’ June Business Outlook contends that the Budget is not yet healthy enough for the federal government to commit to long-term tax cuts. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen claims that Deloitte’s comments are an indictment of the government’s tax plans, which he contends will increase the prospect that more cuts to health and education will be needed over the next 10 years. Deloitte notes that a slump in property and a decline in the Chinese economy could bring about an end to the current revenue surge that the Budget is enjoying.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

Braddon business writes off Shorten’s write-off

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Denholm
The Australian – Page: 5 : 5-Jul-18

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is campaigning in the seat of Braddon in Tasmania ahead of the by-election on 28 July. Local business owner Shane Smith says the Coalition’s company tax cuts package would be of more benefit to businesses in Braddon than Shorten’s alternative of a tax deduction on capital investments of at least $20,000. Smith argues that many businesses in the electorate would not qualify as they lack the capital to make such a large investment.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, PENSTOCK DISTRIBUTORS, DEVONPORT CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA