New Zealand Election on a knife edge but Labour favoured with the support of the Greens & Maori Party as ‘Jacindamania’ pulls support from National & New Zealand First

September 18, 2017roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-17

The final Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll before the September 2017 election shows that the Labour/Greens alliance (60 seats) is favoured to win a knife-edge election with Maori Party support, with National/NZ First/Act NZ to win 58 seats. Support for a potential Labour/Greens coalition has increased to 48.5% (up 7% from mid-August 2017), now well ahead of the incumbent National Party on 40% (down 2.5%). Labour’s support has surged on the back of new Leader Jacinda Ardern to 39.5% – up 14.4% since the 2014 Election and up 7% since mid-August, just after she became Leader. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen 2pts to 137pts in September. Roy Morgan Research CEO Gary Morgan says the narrow gap between the major parties means the final outcome of the election will be decided by the second string parties – and it is here that Labour has a decisive edge.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY, UNITED FUTURE PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, ACT NEW ZEALAND, INTERNET PARTY, MANA PARTY

Jacinda Ardern’s ascension to leadership revitalises Labour, up 2% to 32.5%; Turei scandal costs Greens support, down 4.5% to 9%

August 21, 2017roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 21-Aug-17

A New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention has found that support for the incumbent National Party has fallen by 0.5% to 42.5% in mid-August 2017. Support for the Labour Party has risen 2% to 32.5%, while support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance has fallen 2.5% to 41.5%. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen 0.5pts to 139pts. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says new Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern stands a very real chance of toppling incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, but it will likely be with the support of Winston Peters and his New Zealand First party, whose recent increases in support make it ever more likely that Peters will get to decide who emerges as PM after next month’s election.

New Zealand First in the box seat to decide next NZ Government as National Party neck-and-neck with Labour/ Greens

April 28, 2017roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 28-Apr-17

A New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention has found that support for the ruling National Party has fallen by 0.5 per cent to 43 per cent in April 2017. Support for the Labour Party was unchanged at 29.5 per cent, while support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance has fallen by 1.5 per cent to 43 per cent. Support for New Zealand First rose three per cent to 10.5 per cent. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says that if NZ First maintains this level of support in the lead-up to the election later in 2017 it will win up to 14 seats in the new Parliament and party leader Winston Peters is likely to return to the Government benches for the first time since 2008.

National lead down slightly over Labour/Greens opposition in New Year. TPP signing ceremony set for Auckland in two weeks a coup for PM John Key.

January 25, 2016roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 22-Jan-16

A New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention has found that support for the ruling National Party has fallen by two per cent to 47 per cent in January 2016. Support for the Labour Party has fallen by one per cent to 27.5 per cent, while support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance is unchanged at 41.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen by three points to 131.5 points. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says that in a coup for Prime Minister John Key, Trade Minister Todd McClay has confirmed that the signing ceremony for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will be in Auckland in early February. The TPP agreement to lower trade barriers should provide a significant boost to the New Zealand economy over the next few years, despite the continuing worries about a global economic slowdown.

NZ voting intention virtually unchanged in November before controversy this week after PM John Key accuses Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists

November 16, 2015roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 13-Nov-15

A New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention has found that support for the ruling National Party has fallen by one per cent to 49 per cent in November 2015. Support for the Labour Party has risen by 0.5 per cent to 29.5 per cent, while support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance has risen by one per cent to 41.5 per cent. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan notes that the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen by 9.5 points to 131.5 in November, while the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is up 7.8 points at 122.7.

Support for Labour/Greens coalition overtakes National for first time since New Zealand Election

July 20, 2015roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 17-Jul-15

A New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention, which was carried out in July 2015, shows that support for the ruling National Party has fallen by 6.5 per cent to 43 per cent since May. Support for the Labour Party has risen by six per cent to 32 per cent, and is now at its highest level since March 2014. Likewise, support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance has risen by six per cent to 45 per cent, which is its highest level since May 2014. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan notes that the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by 17.5 points to 118 in July, while New Zealand’s GDP growth slowed to just 0.2 per cent in the March quarter, which is its slowest rate of growth for two years.

National Government support down to 49.5% as New Zealand growth slows to 0.2% in March Quarter – slowest in two years

June 25, 2015roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-15

A New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention, which was carried out in June 2015, shows that support for the ruling National Party has fallen by 4.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent since May. Support for the Labour Party has risen by 0.5 per cent to 26 per cent, and support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance has increased by three per cent to 39 per cent. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the National Party lost support in June following New Zealand’s slowest GDP growth (0.2%) in two years during the March quarter. He notes that the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating has fallen for the last two months, to 119.9 in June. However, New Zealand Government Confidence was at 135.5 in June, with 62.5 per cent of New Zealand electors saying the nation is "heading in the right direction".

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