PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Traders pour into gold as tensions rise

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 32 : 13-Apr-17

The price of gold has rallied in recent weeks as growing geopolitical tensions prompt renewed investor support for "safe haven" assets. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries recently reached a five-month low and it is again testing this level, while the VIX volatility index has risen to its highest level in five months. However, Joseph Capurso of the Commonwealth Bank says the continued strength of the US dollar suggests that recent financial market trends do not constitute a "global risk-off event".

CORPORATES
CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MORGAN STANLEY CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Clinton victory set to unleash a ‘wave of cash’ into global markets

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Original article by David Rogers, Glenda Korporaal, Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 32 : 8-Nov-16

The Australian sharemarket rallied on 7 November 2016, after a new FBI probe cleared US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton over the use of a private email server. AMP Capital’s Nader Naeimi says investors are likely to reallocate cash holdings to higher-risk assets if Clinton wins the election. Meanwhile, Paul Donovan of UBS has warned that world trade and global capital flows could be disrupted if Donald Trump becomes president.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UBS AG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, NZSX-50 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Dr Doom says ‘a serious recession desirable’ for the West

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 31 : 28-Oct-16

Investment expert Marc Faber notes that global economic power has shifted from the developed world to emerging economies in recent decades. He adds that trade between Asian countries has also become much bigger than the region’s exports to the US. Faber also suggests that the financial sector still accounts for too much of the economy in Western nations, and a major recession may be beneficial for developed countries. He says mining stocks and emerging market equities offer good value at present compared with their peers.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP

Trump might win, and beware the turmoil

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 26-Oct-16

Hedge fund expert Jim Rogers says global financial market volatility is likely regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election. Rogers adds that a number of other factors will also contribute to looming financial market turbulence. He cautions against investing in bonds, and says investors should seek exposure to the agricultural sector, including farmland and agricultural futures. Rogers also says the Australian Government should take action to address the nation’s growing debt.

CORPORATES
QUANTUM FUND NV, APPLE INCORPORATED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, PARAWAY PASTORAL COMPANY LIMITED

Finding the best return in a low-return world

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 17-May-16

Research by Societe Generale’s global asset allocation strategy team has concluded that investors can expect an annualised total return of 5-7 per cent from the majority of developed equity markets in the medium- to long-term. The research also suggests that emerging market equities and bonds are likely to deliver the best returns, with Societe Generale preferring bonds issued by India. However, the group says Australian investors should favour shares rather than bonds.

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SOCIETE GENERALE SA

Goldman upbeat, we won’t get a recession

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 10-Feb-16

Modelling by investment bank Goldman Sachs suggests that there is a 25 per cent chance that developed economies will experience a recession in the next 12 months. This compares with the historical average of 28 per cent. The risk of Australia experiencing a recession is just 13 per cent, while the long-term average is 23 per cent. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius argues that the recent volatility in global financial markets presents an opportunity for risk-averse investors.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, TAILORED INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MONTGOMERY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT

Bull market not dead yet, says Citi

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 7-Jan-16

Citigroup is upbeat about the outlook for international shares in 2016, forecasting that global equities will gain 12 per cent. However, the investment bank says the Federal Reserve’s recent move to begin tightening monetary policy means other sharemarkets may offer more value for investors than US equities, particularly stocks in Japan and continental Europe. Citigroup also forecasts that Australia will record GDP growth of 2.75 per cent in 2016.

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CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Stocks set to tumble after French terror

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 16-Nov-15

Global sharemarkets are expected to be heavily sold down on 16 November 2015, as investors opt for lower-risk assets in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed at 5,051.25 on 13 November, and futures markets had already anticipated a fall below the 5,000-point level prior to the terrorist attacks. AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver does expect any downturn in the Australian market to be sustained, although he says resources stocks are likely to fall further.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PEAK ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, HASSIUM ASSET MANAGEMENT, CAC 40 INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP

Anglo American rallies to the defence of coal

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 11-Jun-15

Anglo American spokesman James Wyatt-Tilby notes that coal is used to generate about 41 per cent of global electricity supply at present. He expects coal to remain a primary source of energy supply for many years, and argues that a global push for investment funds to eliminate their exposure to coal producers will have no impact on demand. However, he says it will result in less funding for initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions.

CORPORATES
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, AXA SA, OXFORD UNIVERSITY, UNISUPER LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, HUNTER HALL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED – ASX HHL, GROUP OF SEVEN (G-7), GLENCORE PLC, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION

Good value still out there for the willing

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 12-Mar-15

There has been strong demand for corporate bonds among yield-seeking investors in recent years. Craig MacDonald of Standard Life says long-term, lower-rated corporate bonds still offer value for investors, and he is actively seeking to invest in such assets. However, he favours cash holdings at present rather than short-term bonds. MacDonald adds that Standard Life’s corporate bond fund is likely to achieve a lower return in 2015 than in 2014

CORPORATES
STANDARD LIFE PLC, CEMEX SA