Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 13-May-21
S&P Global Ratings placed Australia’s triple-A credit rating on negative outlook in April 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Commonwealth Bank has warned that Australia could potentially be downgraded to AA+ when S&P undertakes its annual review of the nation’s credit rating in September. Fixed income strategists Philip Brown and Martin Whetton attribute this to Australia’s rapidly growing net debt. However, ratings agencies are generally positive about Budget measures aimed at further stimulating the economy.
S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA
Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Mar-21
The Parliamentary Budget Office estimates that the combined net debt of Australia’s three levels of government will blow out to almost $1.3tn in the five years to 2024. Federal, state and local governments are forecast to collectively spend some $327bn on COVID-19 measures over the five-year period. The independent budget watchdog now expects the national net operating balance across all levels of government in 2020-21 to be a deficit of 11.1 per cent of GDP; it had previously forecast a surplus of 1.7 per cent of GDP for the current financial year.
AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE
Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 2-Dec-20
Centre for Independent Studies research fellow Robert Carling says that rising state government debt means that some states could have their credit ratings downgraded in coming years. Analysis of state governments’ Budget papers show that their combined debt will top $491bn by mid-2024, compared with just $200bn in June 2020. Carling contends that while some of the increase in debt is inevitable, some states are taking on more debt than necessary. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics in turn says rising debt is better than the alternative of lower debt and an unemployment rate that is higher for longer.
THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD
Original article by Adam Creighton,Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 4 : 28-Sep-20
Deloitte Access Economics expects the federal government to announce a 2020-21 Budget deficit of $198.5bn on 6 October. This is just $14bn higher than the government had forecast in June. Chris Richardson of Deloitte says personal and corporate income tax receipts will exceed the government’s low expectations, while commodity prices have been more resilient than anticipated. He notes that the iron ore price in particular is still well above the Treasury’s projections. However, Deloitte expects federal debt to be about $401bn higher than the government’s pre-pandemic forecasts in 2023.
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY
Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Jul-20
The Australian economy will contract by 2.25 per cent in 2020-21, according to forecasts in the federal government’s economic update. The nation’s official unemployment rate is in turn projected to rise from 7.4 per cent at present to 9.25 per cent by the end of the year. Treasury has also forecast a Budget deficit of $85.5bn for 2019-20, rising to around $184.5bn in 2020-21. Meanwhile, the nation’s gross debt is slated to top $851.9bn in 2020-21. Moody’s and S&P have indicated that the economic update will have no impact on Australia’s triple-A credit rating.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS
Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 4 : 26-Aug-19
Australian Office of Financial Management CEO Rob Nicholl has rejected suggestions that the federal government’s capacity to increase its borrowings has been boosted by the downturn in bond yields. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell below the cash rate of one per cent earlier in August, and Nicholls argues that demand for government debt has not risen despite a global downturn in bond yields. The federal government is resisting pressure to ramp up its infrastructure spending instead of prioritising a return to a Budget surplus.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY. OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 19-Jun-19
The combined net debt of Australia’s state and territory governments is set to exceed $184bn over the next four years, compared with just $81bn in 2018-19. Increased investment in infrastructure will be a key contributor to the debt blowout, and Robert Carling of the Centre for Independent Studies stresses the need for such projects to be subject to a cost-benefit analysis. He adds that New South Wales and Victoria could potentially be at risk of losing their AAA credit ratings if their net debt continues to rise, although he says this is unlikely in the near-term.
THE CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, NEW SOUTH WALES. THE TREASURY, SOUTH AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF TREASURY AND FINANCE
Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 2-Apr-19
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has rejected suggestions that the April 2019 Budget will be a ‘cash splash’ ahead of the federal election, stressing the government’s track record for fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, the Budget papers are forecast to show that Australia’s net debt will be reduced to zero by 2028-29 under the Coalition, compared with $370bn at present. The Budget is expected to remain in deficit for 2018-19, although it is likely to be lower than the $5.2bn that was forecast in the mid-year update. The government is tipped to bring forward the second and third stages of its tax cuts package.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY, AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE, AUSTRALIAN SECURITY INTELLIGENCE ORGANISATION
Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Jan-19
Prime Minister Scott Morrison will use a speech in Brisbane on 29 January to commit the Coalition to creating an additional 1.25 million jobs over five years if it wins the 2019 federal election. He will note that the Coalition has created more than 1.2 million jobs since it won the 2013 election. Morrison will also indicate that his government will aim to clear Australia’s net debt within a decade. It currently stands at $351.9bn, or 18.2 per cent of GDP. The mid-year Budget update had forecast that net debt will fall to 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2028-29.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA
Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 20-Nov-18
The federal government’s net debt was $342bn at the end of 2017-18, which equates to 18.6 per cent of GDP. Although this is relatively low compared with many nations, Treasury secretary Philip Gaetjens says debt needs to be reduced to ensure that Australia is prepared for potential economic shocks in the future. He notes that Australia’s healthy fiscal position in 2007 helped the economy to ride out the global financial crisis. Gaetjens has also expressed concern about a blowout in global debt in the wake of the GFC.
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY